European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - January 20, 1995, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Friday january �0, 1995 commentary the stars and stripes Pago 13 William s afire should we Trust the russians that a the Central strategic question of our time. If your answer is yes then it follows we should Send Moscow Aid and credits we should Cluck Cluck about the savagery in putting Down the chechen reach for in dependence but discourage any secession from the vast russian federation. And not Only should we not expand nato eastward we should respond to our allies abandonment of Bosnia by bringing Home 110,000 american troops now defending Europe. But if your answer is no a a if you believe that a resurgent Russia will someday again seek to dominate or re absorb the nations of Eastern Europe a a then you As a realistic distr Star should logically support a much different strategy. A a a. A a a a a a a a the distr usters would tie american Trade and Aid to russian economic and foreign policy behaviour would lend vocal moral support to Peoples within the worlds largest Empire who want to separate from the huge federation and would Swallow natos failure to respond to serbian aggression for the Sake of building collective Security against a future threat from the East. After much thumb sucking cognitive dissonance arid cussing out of the euro plans for their Balkan shame i have come Down hard on the Side of distrust. That Means supporting the expansion of the nato Alliance while we have the Chance a now with Russia preoccupied. If we wait until the Bear regains both strength and appetite the most vulnerable nations will never be protected because at that time faint hearts would see expansion As  president Clinton is waffling on this Central Issue. He talks the talk of protecting Poland and other states at potential risk but walks the walk of not offending Boris Yeltsin by failing to set out a timetable for new membership. His amorphous Quot partnership for peace muddies the Waters and tootles an Uncertain saxophone. What  new conservative leadership of Congress does the old tug of distrust of the russians out pull the older tug of isolationism evidently so. In a Bill labelled . 7, a to revitalize the National Security of the United states a the Shock troops of the Gingrich movement a after heaping ritual scorn on the . A assert that a it should be the policy of the United states. To continue the nations commitment of an Active leadership role in Natow and that we should a facilitate the transition of Poland Hungary the czech re Public and Slovakia to  Mem Reship not later than Jan. 10,1999.�?� that a encouraging the new crowd is sensibly internationalist and intends to be Tough minded in asserting itself in the foreign Arena. In getting specific about inclusion however my right Wing soul mates have made a dangerous mis take. What about the Baltic nations by treating Latvia Estonia and Lithuania As second class candidates for admission a Only to be considered a at a future Date a the House Bill condemns these Independent states to the russian sphere of influence that was  error at Yalta. Lest ave forget it was the courageous reach for Freedom by the Baltic states a whose incorporation into the , in Stalin a Deal with the nazis we always refused to recognize a that led to a murderous crackdown by Moscow so Black berets exactly four years ago. The internal and external re action to that re p Russion triggered the breakup of the soviet Empire. For nato to discriminate against the Baltic states out of a misplaced sensitivity to old imperialist soviet claims makes no sense. It All but invites russian Hegemony a at a time when Russia is breaking its agreement to allow International inspection  remaining radar base in Latvia. Latvian foreign minister Valdis Birkavs was in Washington last week with a creative approach for those who worry about russians concern about a steady eastward March of nato. His suggestion is a a Checkerboard integration a Poland plus Latvia then the czechs and Estonia then Hungary and Lithuania a Zigzag inclusion based on Western readiness criteria. He does not mention Ukraine which cannot with consistency be excluded Congress should include the Baltic in its a revitalization and expansion of nato Quot manifesto. In open debate during hearings on the Bill the republicans can build pop Utar backing for tomorrows containment. A a a c now York Timon ready for a Post Yeltsin Russia top american officials believe that the Era of Boris Yeltsin russians first democratically elected president is coming to an end. But there is still no Clear View of what a Post Yeltsin Russia might look like or even Hauhe West should want itto look like. On the surface not much seems to have changed. Bili Clinton writes his pal Boris in the Kremlin urging him to go easy in the bloody fight against the rebel chechen. Warren Christopher the Secretary of state warns of pos Siulc cuts in . Aid unless Yeltsin amp co shape up. But in reality All this is a sideshow. Since the collapse of the soviet Union american Aid has been far too puny to serve As a lever on russian policy. Moreover Clinton and Christopher know that a Republican run Congress is not about to turn on an Aid spigot for the russians even in the unlike la event that True reforms occur would Lac fall of Yeltsin and the collapse of the pm battled Reform movement harm vital . Interests for the record the president and most members of Congress on both sides of the aisle say that s a Given. For one thing military Rule which could Well follow in Yeltsin a Wake would Force politicians Here to re think . Priorities. For another a new nationalist Fervour in Muscovy could spark a spate of bloody regional wars a Chechnya writ Large a and so destabilize Many Andrew j. Glass Peoples and places. And a huge potential Market would be lost to Western firms seeking to do business in those Post communist lands. But behind the scenes some deep questions arc being asked about the shape and scope of a Post Post revolutionary Russia. What might actually happen if Russia ceases to be a multiethnic state a one that now covers 11 time zones a and implodes into a state of say 65 million ethnic russians what if Chechnya finally manages to secede what if a half a dozen others such As the tartars follow one Strong possibility the massive social upheaval that has been avoided until now despite so much economic pain and despite the shelling of the russian a White House a May finally occur. In human terms the breakup of an already broken up and broken Down Russia would be a . But would it also be a National Security calamity for the United states a As sen. Sam Nunn d-ga., among others has argued for the last three years. During tilt time the Kremlin leadership has steadily lost stature in the eyes of its own people. By degrees Yeltsin has turned away from his pro Reform advisers to Hole up with his Kab trained clique. Chechnya could Well prove to be the last Straw in this process. Clearly an Overall collapse would be a tragedy for Russia. However it is a lot less Clear that it would also be a tragedy for the United states. A c Cox nows Sarrico Mam 0n a tank a 3lyear5 into if a it t