European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - July 13, 2007, Darmstadt, Hesse                                July 2007 stars and stripes Page 17 opinion theres no Middle ground for Iraq by Stephen Biddle the presidents shaky political consensus for the surge in Iraq is in danger of collapsing after the re cent defections of prominent sen ate republicans such As Richard Lugar of in Pete Domenici of new Mexico and George Voinovich of but this growing opposition to the surge has not yet translated into support for outright withdrawal few lawmakers Are comfortable with abandon ing Iraq or admitting the result has been a search for some kind of politically moderate plan b that would split the difference Between surge and the problem is that these politics do not fit the military reality of Many would like to reduce the commitment to some thing like half of today troop presence but it is much harder to find a Mission for the remaining to soldiers that makes any sense perhaps the most popular centrist option today is drawn from the bake Hamilton commission recommendations of last de this would withdraw combat shift the american Mission to one of training and supporting the iraqi Security and Cut total troop Levels in the country by about this idea is at the heart of the proposed legislative Effort that Domenici threw his support behind last and support is growing on both sides of the aisle on Capitol the politics make but the Compro Mise leaves us with an untenable military without a major combat Effort to keep the violence the american training Effort would face challenges even bigger than those our troops Are confronting an ineffective training Effort would leave tens of thousands of american train advisers and supporting troops exposed to that violence in the the net re sult is Likely to be continued casualties with Little positive effect on Iraq civil the american combat presence in Iraq is insufficient to end the violence but does Cap its if we draw Down that combat violence will Rise to be embedded trainers and advis ers must live and operate with the iraqi sol Diers they Mentor they Are not lecturers sequestered in some Safe the greater the the riskier their jobs and the heavier their that violence reduces their ability to succeed As there Are Many barriers to an effective iraqi Security but the toughest is sectarian Iraq is in the midst of a civil War in which iraqis Are increasingly forced to take sides for their own Iraq Security forces Are necessarily drawn from the same populations that Are being pulled apart into More severe the sectarian the deeper the divisions in iraqi society become and the harder it is for americans to create the kind of disinterested nationalist Security Force that could stabilize under the Best it is unrealistic to expect a satisfactory iraqi Security Force any time and the More severe the Vio the worse the the result is a vicious the More we shift out of combat missions and into train bailing can offi just the harder we make the trainers Job and the More exposed they it is unrealistic to expect that we can pull Back to some Safe yet productive Mission of training but not fighting this would be neither Safe nor if the surge is the better option is to Cut our losses and withdraw Alto in the substantive Case for either extreme surge or outright withdraw Al is stronger than for any policy the surge is a Longshot but mid dle ground options leave us with the worst of both worlds continuing casualties but even less Chance of stability in moderation and centrism Are normally the right instincts in american and Many lawmakers in both parties desperately want to find a workable Middle ground on but while the politics Are the Mili tary logic is Stephen who was in Iraq in March and is senior fellow for defense policy at the Council on foreign a think tank headquartered in new this column first appeared in the Washington the Somalia and Haiti Arent going away by Thomas Barnett when army Paul Yin gling recently published a failure of generalship in the armed forces a tip Ping Point was reached in the Long brewing fight Between the military big War and Small wars the big War crowd wants to write off Iraq As an preferring instead to focus on conventional War with rising Powers like the Small wars faction envisions a future in which Messy insurgencies Are the the initial clash naturally involves issuing blame for Iraq from that dominant strategic All future ones must Yingling Small wars faction Points accusingly to a generation of senior officers who should have logically foreseen the Emer gence of such intr National warfare As the primary threat to global stability in the Post cold War All the signs were including a plethora of military interventions across the 1990s that involved such for our military to be unprepared for counterinsurgency operations going into argues is a profound failure of that were still struggling to master such techniques years into our occupation is even the colonel forcefully condemns the Donbrock thebout mentality of senior Flag and Here is where the blame game grows immensely More the military emerged from Vietnam decades ago with a firm desire to avoid counterinsurgency operations and nation build americas historic preference in War has always been for the Complete annihilation of our enemies we come we kill we to that Cavite insurgency operations were subsequently reduced to a Niche ghetto Zed within special operations command along with much of the civilian affairs our larger strategic rationale was ultimately codified in the Powell doctrine if America were to intervene it would be with overwhelming Force for very limited the american Public has no patience for Long it was the Powell doctrine utterly failed us in the Post cold War Era we went into Iraq Only to return to we stabilized Haiti Only to return yet again to Haiti we intervened in Somalia Only to return there last our treat pm and Street pm mentality achieved nothing save to schedule our next visit years Down the but the Powell doctrine did accomplish this our military continued to buy and train for big War while ignoring the inevitability of Small thus earning Yingling righteous we All share blame because we All bought into the Powell doctrines seductively simplistic View of our role in the world America kills bad our military is not on the Hook for the its not our govern ments duty to leave the country More connected and stable than we found if that failed state or dictatorship continues to produce bad actors and widespread our forces May reenter it to kill More bad but that is the limit of our object our responsibility and our americans can stomach the killing they just have no patience for the that is what foreign policy experts Call and so we went into Iraq with the army that we not the one our troops on the ground wanted in terms of equip training and was this All Donald Rumsfeld fault we went into Iraq with the Force that our army had desired and purchased Over the previous three it was an army designed to fight other armies in major it was an army specifically designed not to be pre pared for counterinsurgency operations and As our failures in Iraq and Afghanistan a and As the list of failing states grows a chorus of Young army and Marine officers emerges to Call for their arguments Are to no ones by senior air Force and Navy offic ers who see their cherished rationales for continued focus on major War contingencies along with All the associated air Craft and ships they prefer to buy in com ing this Intran military debate should focus americas attention on the real question at hand do we see a future world full of Messy Iraq and Somalia and Haiti or should we pull Back from that Long War focus and pre pare for conventional conflict with China Given the course of events since which pathway seems More realistic to you Scripps Howard columnist Thomas Barnett is a distinguished strategist at the Oak Ridge Center for advanced studies and the senior manag ing director of enter a solutions prickly City by Scott Stantis