European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - June 03, 1980, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Doily Magazine detente deferred the East West military face off by Craig r. Whitney new York times to runs the foreign policy of the u.s.a.?" the question a headline in pravda recently has been asked in Moscow since Early in the Carter administration. For Loo Long As the russians see it zbig Nice Brzezinski the president s hawkish National Security adviser has had the upper hand steering United states policy deliberately toward a new and More dangerous cold War despite ineffectual course corrections by Secretary of state Cyrus r. Vance. There was therefore a sense of potential Opportunity in Moscow when Edmund s. Music replaced Vance. The russians have in effect written off Trczinski and Carter As negotiating partners. As they saw it music s first and very private meeting Brzczinski aides were excluded in Vienna last month with Andrei a. Gromyko who has been the soviet foreign minister for 23 years was a test of the newest member of an administration they regard As unpredictable inconsistent insecure and which they treat publicly with undisguised contempt. The russians do not Welcome disarray in american policy any More than Washington s allies do but they try to exploit ii. Even with United states humiliations in Iran and set backs to its peacemaking efforts in the Middle East the soviet efforts have had Only limited Success. On Afghanistan though the allies have not gone along with All american counter moves they Are coming to recognize the fundamental question How to counter soviet expansionism in an age when Moscow has global strategic parity with Washington. The russians in their insecurity Are attempting to portray Alt those who would resist them As cold warriors and All those who favor accommodation As  the Carter administration is definitely not in the latter  had deteriorated so far in the months before Vance s resignation that soviet officials were asking their american contacts in Moscow about Ronald Rea Gan s presidential  but Carter was the message. We can t talk with this administration one insider said. At least we know what to expect for conservative republicans. We began detente after All with president Nixon. What would happen if a president Reagan made Good his threat to hold Cuba hostage until soviet troops got out of Afghanistan he said was just a theoretical question there b of count no sympathy la Moscow Tot the Tiew that soviet act Tam in afghan Lisa and tit Sobun alb or than Washington s reactions Are responsible for the deterioration in Bill Antral relations. The official soviet line echoed at last month s War saw pact meeting is that intervention in Afghanistan was merely a response to an Appeal from a Friendly government about to be dismembered by United states and chinese led mercenaries. It adds that president Carter needing an Issue for his re election Campaign then exploited this Friendly assist Ance to whip up anti soviet hysteria sabotage ratification of the strategic arms limitation treaty that he and Leonid i. Brezhnev signed in Vienna last june and embark on an arms spending spree. Propaganda aside apparently the Only Way soviet american relations can be repaired is for the United states Senate to ratify the treaty. The russians made the Salt negotiations the Cornerstone of their american policy for the first three years of the Carter administration and ratification is now the sine qua Nan for continued discourse. Since this seem politically impossible As Long As soviet troops stay in Afghanistan it is hard to see How there can be any improvement no matter who is Secretary of state. All the Anli Brzczinski caricatures flooding the soviet press All the Advance promotion of Muskie As a counterweight Are really aimed to keeping soviet read ers convinced that the Kremlin is not the blame for the tensions. Given the growing insecurity in the United states about american military strength Given the willingness to use theirs that the russians Are demonstrating in Afghanistan there can be Little doubt that no matter who is president during the next four years soviet american detente As the Cany 1970s knew it is dead. Meanwhile Moscow b frying to drive wedges be tween Washington and its allies in Europe and Asia to convince them that their interests lit in separate relationships with Moscow. However even with Jimmy Carter acting As his own worst enemy at times this approach has brought Only limited results. The North Atlantic treaty organization held together last month in demanding withdrawal of soviet forces from Afghanistan even though the europeans unlike the United Stales continue to separate politics from their burgeoning Trade with Moscow. The olympic boy Cott gained Germany though lost France. But in other areas of the world. United Stales euro Pean and asian interests diverge giving the soviet Union stonger potential leverage. On Iran there is Western disunity on applying sanctions to try to Force release of the american hostages and there was dismay in the Alliance Over the administration s unsuccessful attempt to free them by Force. The russians under criticism by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini for their invasion of moslem Afghanistan Are trying to recoup by supporting him on the hostage Issue. They Are offering Iran land routes across Siberia to Pacific ports in Case of a United states blockade in the persian Gulf. Eventually Moscow May Hope to help Iran s Udeh communist party to Power. In the Middle East the United slates finds itself alone in backing Israel in pain negotiations Over Palestine separate deals 1 in soviet parlance and failure could restore Moscow to what it keeps saying ii is the natural ally of ail the Arab Stales. Support for the Arab cause in Palestine did not pre vent moslem slates from condemning the i Yastion of Afghanistan last Winter and it was probably with that in mind thai the russians endorsed a proposal out of Kabul last month to normalize relations with moslem Iran and Pakistan As a prelude to withdrawal. The proposal was much the same As one by Brezhnev in february that came to nothing. Floating it again May have been part of the attempt to sound out Muskie. He not Brzczinski May be the Princi pal spokesman of Washington s foreign policy these Days As he claims. But the russians Are Likely to find it is the same policy and Hunker Down to see if anything better comes up in november. It s been a cold Spring in Moscow so far and it May be a Chilly summer too. Tuesday june 3, 1980 the stars and stripes Page 13