European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - June 28, 1985, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 the stars and stripes june columns comments Tom Wicker democrats need a not a position paper editors note this is the first of two articles the More you study the wealth of statistics and analyses on recent american the More one particular conclusion seems warranted that the re publican party has virtually claimed the presidency As its winning it in four of the last five elections three times by landslides and in six of 10 since world War that not quite the same As a party since the democrats still control the have a reasonable Chance to retake the Senate in count 34 governors in and form the majority in 59 state legislative but in the Only National elec Tion we to fill the single most powerful american political the democrats have been offering Little Competition for the last 20 they might not have won the presidency even once in that period had not the watergate scandals significantly aided Jimmy Carter in Stuart a Washington attorney who was Carters chief Domestic affairs lamented in a recent speech to the women National democratic club that except for Lyndon Johnson in no democratic presidential candidate had won a majority of the White Middle class vote since among such he Only one in three nationwide supported Walter Mondale last year one in four in the and its in the South a democratic stronghold for most of the years since the civil War that the Par Tys presidential plight can be most dramatically David Broder in the losing campaigns of 1980 and democratic presidential Eizenstat pointed have won a grand total of two Southern the party is even worse off in the where by his definition of that its National candidates have carried Only one state since 1964 in John Kenneth a political scientist at Potsdam state University in new studied returns Back to those of 1968 and found that in the periods five National elections the republicans had won elec toral votes 77 percent of the total to Only 567 21 percent for the with 47 votes going to non major party in a Survey of numerous election White also cited one by Everett Carl Ladd showing that in the same five Republican presidential candidates carried 23 states with 202 electoral votes Only 68 Short of a majority every including the Carter Victory of but in the same five elections the Only constituency the democrats carried every time was the District of with three electoral As All these studies the National democratic party is in danger of becoming what Eizenstat called a narrowly based regional party of the Northeast mid the slowest growing areas of the without a Broad National such a party could help to elect a president Only when the governing republicans encounter Eizenstat explanation of what went wrong for the party of Kennedy and Johnson is that democratic policies Carters As Well As congressional and those proclaimed by presidential candidates caused voters to lose Faith in the party ability to Lead at the presidential level to promote Prosperity through stable economic provide not Opportunity for All and use Power to defend Freedom around the most democrats seem to agree with this which obviously has much but it seems to me to leave out of account one major Factor the demo cratic candidates in those five elections since a year when party leaders engineered the nomination of Hubert who was disastrously associated with Lyndon Johnson and the War in but very nearly won after nominating reforms resulted in the choices of George Jimmy Carter twice and Walter Mondale weak candidates in and representative of some or All of the policy problems Eizenstat dont presidential candidates do More to establish voters impressions of a political party than anyone but a president in Power if that the democrats wont be much helped by study groups writing new position papers no one will they need a presidential Candi Date who in 1986 can both embody and articulate More appealing persuading the party to follow by the Prospect of regaining the White c new York times republicans prospects Van most too Good of be Frue it could be that republicans Are ready to shed their minority status in the state with the lineups for the 1985 gubernatorial contests completed last week and the outlines of the 1986 races beginning to become it is possible to see How the republicans could come out of the 198586 Cycle with a majority of the governorships for the first time since the risk of a recession and some uncertainties in the candidate picture Cloud the current Bright gop but right there Are few knowledgeable politicians who would dispute the judgment of Michelle executive director of the Republican governors that the opportunities for Republican gains look almost too Good to be democrats hold 34 of the 50 governorships today and have a Hammerlock on the state Legislatures As so Long As that control democrats will have the upper hand in drawing the lines for House and Republican chances of gaining a House majority will remain with president reagans budgetary and tax policies shifting More and More Domestic policy authority to the continued democratic dominance of the state capitols will mock talk of a real Reagan revolution in american govern All these factors give added importance to the gubernatorial elections that Start this november in new Jersey and Virginia and continue in 1986 in 36 More Only six governors in each party have terms extending beyond part of the democratic problem lies in the among the 28 democratic governors whose terms Are expiring in 12 Are definite retirees mainly because of constitutional term limitations and five others Are considering stepping Down or running for other among those missing will be phenomenal democratic vote getters in states that Are historically Republican or Are heading in that direction Bob Graham of George nigh of John Carlin of Dick Lamm of Colorado and Bruce Babbitt of for in such states As Maryland and South stronger than usual Republican challenges Are sex Reata a hoops who robs from the mvddl5 and Grivas to the a Lam axiom my petted because the two term or longer democratic incumbents have reached the end of their in but not of the retirees there Are Strong democratic replacements Idaho s former governor and for Mer Secretary of Democrat Cecil is preparing to run for the seat democratic John Evans is yield ing to run for the but generally the republicans Are looking better in the Battle to replace retiring in Pennsylva Nia and South Dakota there Are Republican lieutenant governors ready to move Oregon republicans have a top vote getter in former Secretary of state Norma who might be favored even against the prospective Challenge of former demo cratic Portland mayor and former Secre tary of transportation Neil in where popular Republican Lamar Alexander must step the party has recruited Republican sex Winfield Dunn As a 1986 the two races this fall Are Likely to Demon Strate the importance of new Jersey democrats last week nominated 33 year old Essex county executive Peter Sha a Bright Hope for the party As their candidate for but Shapiro faces Republican Thomas Kean a Man whose approval ratings Dwarf even those Reagan receives in the by in Charles virtually the Only democratic Winner of top office in 20 must step Down at the end of one the newly nominated democratic Gerald Defeated his Republican gubernatorial Wyatt Dur four years ago for attorney but republicans clearly have a better Chance against Baliles than they would have had against Robb especially since the democrats Are testing the tolerance of Virginias conservative electorate with a ticket that includes a Black nominee for lieutenant governor and a woman candidate for attorney republicans have reaped publicity in the past few weeks by recruiting three prominent disenchanted democrats who Are prospective gubernatorial candidates in their states Edward King in Wayne county executive William Lucas in and Kent Hance in but All three face possible primary fights if they run for governor As and All three would begin As underdogs to the incumbent democratic the Best Republican chances Are spread All across the map from connect where democratic William Oneill faces a possibly serious primary to where democratic Richard Celeste has been weakened by the saving Sandlian to where and Henry Bell a is primed for a to where Honolulu county prosecutor Charles Marslano Heads a big Field of gop re publican House members Are looking at gubernatorial races in South car Olina and c 1985 Washington Post writers group