European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - November 9, 1985, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 the Siars and stripes saturday november 9, 1985 column James Reston Weinberger s absence from Geneva is important defense Secretary Weinberger will not be going to Geneva for the Reagan Gorbachev talks on the control of nuclear weapons. It is in Odd situation a Little like blasting off for outer space without the Engineer. In a Way the Secretary of defense has invited this rebuke. Me has not hesitated to express his doubts about the value of an arms control Agic Cmunt with the russians. He hns consistently taken positions on foreign policy beyond the responsibilities of his department and diver gent from the views of the Secretary of stale. This May be invaluable in private but is often inconvenient if not intolerable in Public. Even so to discuss arms control without the head of inc department charged with the military Security of the nation weakens Weinberger both in Washington and Moscow and is Likely to increase the tension be tween the slate and defense departments rather than diminishing it. Part of the problem lies in the president s own style of negotiations. He is Good at stating objectives but almost recklessly ignorant of information essential to his ends. Accordingly he will have to turn to somebody at Geneva to answer the questions put to him by the Well informed soviet Leader Mikhail Gorbachev and it would be awkward to have the Secretary of slate giving one reply and the Secretary of defense giving another. Thus ii is the president s responsibility to resolve this problem before the Geneva meeting rather than evading it by leaving Weinberger at Home. Secretary Weinberger is a Strong willed Man with dogmatic views of soviet ambitions Power and Treach Ery. He May be right about this or wrong but even his most vocal critics concede that he would defend the president s policies at Geneva perhaps with More eloquence than anybody else no matter How much he disagreed with them in private. The Agenda will be Broad enough at Geneva to pro vide scope for the private advice of Sec Clary of stale Shuller. Weinberger and Robert me Tirane inc nation Al Security adviser. Pan of inc Lime the negotiations will be dealing with the Broad objectives of foreign policy and Wilh regional conflicts and human rights which the president and shul can handle. Other parts May very Well Deal with the intricacies of weapons and delivery systems which can per haps be handled by Weinberger with More knowledge and skill than anybody else. One of inc reasons for the present difficulty is that William Safire inc president has allowed months and even years to slip by without insisting that his administration thrash out its differences on this Central question of world politics. Having failed to do so in his first term and then faced with a Summit meeting in his second it s not surprising that Shultz and Weinberger went off on Dif Ferent courses with numerous senators also trying to fill the vacuum. It could be that the Best Way to Deal with Weinberger is to give him a policy and Trust him to help carry it out at Geneva. The next Best Way if the president is not prepared to Trust him is to fire him. The worst a is to pretend there s no problem that Shultz and win Erger arc old buddies out of the Bech Tel corp. And that Cappy would be just As Happy at Home adding to his weapons collections. Then of course the president May just say he never thought of leaving Cappy Home in the first place that it was All Malarkey made up by those Guys in the press nevertheless the composition of the . Delegation it this first meeting of the Heads of the United Stales and soviet governments in six years is important As past experiences have shown. President Wilson lost his dream of a league of a Lions because he overlooked the importance of taking the opposition republicans along to Versailles. President Eisenhower had trouble with the russian at his Summit meetings because he was always ducking questions and turning to John Foster Dulles for the answers. It s a Little late to be fiddling with such que tons but the record of the past is fairly Clear Pere Onil tics do count in negotiations. Who goes to the Summit and who Speaks for the nation can make a big differ ence. C new York Tom Summit s saudi Arabia benefits from persian Gulf Bloodbath never underestimate the financial nimble Ness of the rulers of saudi Arabia. Just when open appears to be coming apart with nations like Nigeria making under the table deals just when the sup ply of Oil a outpacing demand and de pressing the Cartel s fixed Price just when the saudis have reduced their production is far As they can without going out of business along comes a development that takes the downward pressure off prices. Nobody it talking now about the Immi Nence of a Steep slide in Oil prices by the end of the year. Such an adjustment downward would Spur Western economic growth Wilhour inflation and breathe new life into the Oil dependent nations of the third world. Instead we see the spot Price of Oil firming. Most analysts predict a delay in the drop past the coming Winter for tech Nical and seasonal reasons. The immedi ate Prospect of oversupply seems to be diminishing and lowered open production can no longer be attributed to saudi restraint in pumping its Oil. What happened the Story of what happened is inc sub Eccl of rumours in the Oil Industry and of speculation at intelligence services in moslem countries. To Recap the Gusher there is this War going on in the persian Gulf without Benefit of television Between Iran and Iraq both big open Oil producers. Only about a million people have been killed so far but they arc just settling into Trench warfare. The iranians have shifted operational control of the War from the mullahs to the military that probably Means a War of attrition has been decided upon which makes strategic sense for the iranians and spells slow disaster for the iraqis. Saudi Arabia has been providing whop Ping financial support to its Arab brother Iraq. Iran is moslem but not Arab the iraqis have mortgaged much of their next year s production to the saudis without these saudi Grants and Loans. Saddam Hussein s regime in Iraq would have col lapsed or sued for peace. Up until a couple of months ago Iraq refrained from a lacking the Central distribution Point of iranian Oil Harg Island in the Gulf. Why fight a War and nol go for the enemy s jugular in this instance most observers agree the saudis would not tolerate an escalation of the War into the Oil business. The reason for the Light saudi Leash King fahd fell insecure about let Ting the iraqis go after iranian Oil sales. One cause for worry was a Chance of retaliation by iranian planes missiles or terrorists at Ras Tanura saudi Arabia s great Oil facility. Another was the threat to Kuwait the country Wilh the highest per Capila income in the world a saudi ally especially vulnerable to the rage of the followers of Ayatollah Khomeini. That was then by now is now and fears have changed. The Well armed saudis apparently believe that the threat to them from iranian attack it leu than the threat of the drop of the Price of Oil to is 5 barrel. Here is where suspicious speculation or simple deduction comes into play. According to these Oil sources the saudis let their ally Iraq know this summer that the kingdom would no longer look with Dis pleasure on an attack on Harg Island. With the restraint from their bankrolled removed the iraqis promptly launched a series of raids against Iran s Oil distribution Center damaging it badly. What has this brought about despite frantic iranian efforts to use alternate ports and Cut rate deals to offset the risks tankers the of coming out of Iran has been declining significantly. That is inc Curva Lenl of new restraint by a major Neil but what if the iranians go ahead and retaliate against Kuwait the saudis