European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - January 5, 1986, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Sunday january 1986 the stars and stripes Page 19 business news 3m &3i 4% economists Are cautiously optimistic for 1986 Washington a the cd gnome which disappointed Many people in 1985, is Likely to perform slightly belter this year forecasters say. These economists Sec 1986 As a year of moderate growth with continued mild inflation falling interest Rales end an unemployment rate stuck about where it is now in Short a year much like the one jus ending. However economists Are cautious because the Economy is now in the fourth year of recovery from the 1981-82 recession and they consider that unusually Long for a recovery. Analyst Don t see the forces that normally rigger re Cessions but they say the dangers of a downturn Are Likely id intensify in 1987. The year just ended was not kind to the forecasting profession. When it began Many economists were expect ing growth to be 3.5 percent o 4 percent which would be Strong enough to reduce unemployment. The optimism stemmed in part from he strongest growth in the United states in three decades a 6.6 percent increase in he Gross National product in 1984. However 1985 turned weaker. According to preliminary estimates the Gnu grew just 2.4 percent last year the lowest Pace since the last recession. . Manufacturers were hampered All year by a Strong Dollar which sent the country s Trade deficit soaring As foreign goods poured into the country and . Manufacturers found their Over Tea markets drying up. With the Dollar now on he decline Many economists Lay 1986 will see some rebound in growth. Blue Chip economic indicators an investment news let or said a Survey of so economists found a consensus for growth of 3.1 percent in 1986. A year ago this Survey was calling Tor growth of 3,5 percent in 1985. But Robert j. Eggeri editor of the newsletter said the 1986 average hides the widest spread of individual fore casts in the nine years he has conducted he Survey. The most optimistic analyst is calling for growth at 5.2 t5� Toff raw rear tips res "855 Roo t511.to Marl mile 1003.1 s 6t Stone 1151.81 1403.44 e 1304.48 j20w8 Dow jobs Industrial t in in is 75 to 65 nov. 14, Feo 24, april May ton ism Tsu lifts of Trow a Che a tax a Rev 0, nov. Elow. 11, 1985 1ms � Rev percent next year while the most pessimistic is predicting a new recession with the Gnu contracting by 0,7 percent. Generally when there is this kind of  among economists then businesses need to be an the cautious Side egg yet  Point to the recent Strong surge in inc tic la is incl and Stearn declines in interns rates to bolster their belief that the i conomy is reviving. Many believe the financial rally reflects enthusiasm on Wall Street Over con Gressional passage of the Gramm Rudman Holl iries amendment which requires a balanced Federal budget by 1991."i think people arc underestimating the strength of the Economy. The Stock Market is up because business profits Are going to Rise 20 percent Over the next year said Michael Evans head of a Washington forecasting firm who i predicting Gnu growth next year of 4 Perchm however pessimists Are worried that a cutback. In government spending because of the deficit reduction Effort counted with a slowdown in consumer purchases and Busi Ness investment will Lead to sluggish growth next year. The consumer just can t continue to spend More than he is earning and the initial indications Are that business men Don t plan to invest very much next year either said David Wyss an economist with data resources inc. Of Lexington muss. His firm is forecasting 1986 growth us 2 percent. Other economic expectations for 1986 inflation consumer prices Rose last year at an annual rate of 3.6 percent and Many analysis believe that moderate inflation performance will persist through 1986. White some analysts belie i inc falling value of the Dollar will push up the Price of imported goods Many expect this increase to be offset by further declines in Oil prices. David Berson of Wharton Econometrics predicted Oil would drop to s24 a barrel this year from the current spot Market Price of $28. This do Cine will hold consumer prices to just a 3.1 percent increase next year he predicted. Interest rates these declined for most of last year and Many analysts expect this trend la continue for much of 1986. Mortgage rates in pc fallen to i  j percent for fisc Rale Loans the lowest level in Sis years. Some anal to believe mortgage rates will drop into the single digit a indic item Spring for the first time since i97b. Unemployment the jobless Rale was stuck for much of last year at 7.3 percent As widespread layoffs in manufacturing dampened the effects of Job gains elsewhere. White the rate did fall to 7 percent in no vember Many analysts arc expecting Little improvement for the next your. You normally need growth in excess of 3 percent to get declines in the unemployment rate said John i Bens a vice president at Chase Econometrics. Since we expect growth will Only average 2.5 percent next year we look for the unemployment rate to stay about where it  Man asks Boss for salary Cut of avoid paying income fax Peoria. Iii. A John Wright does t want his tax dollars used for weapon programs and he s willing to make himself poor in the government s eyes to practice his beliefs Wright has asked his Boss for a iwo third pay Cut that will put his salary below the level that triggers Federal income lax. Wright says he and his accountant figure hell be below he Federal tax threshold when his salary As music coordinator for St. Thomas Catholic Church about ii 1,100 a year is Cut to s4.400, with 25 percent going into a tax deferred annuity fund. If a we have to hold ourselves account Able he said. We Are All responsible. We can t put it off on our leaders. We Are Arm ing the world. It bothers me thai resources my fellow citizens Are working so hard for arc being dedicated to weapons of  Wright s medical insurance will remain intact after the pay Cut but he May have a move to cheaper lodgings. He does t want to accept Public Aid Bat said he May accept a cup from friends and family. I be known John for seven years said the Rev. William Wagon the pastor at St. Thomas. He has a Strong commitment to Justice and Pence and 1 think this is his Way of carrying that  Wright who has a civil engineering de Gree from the University of Illinois said his family was not Loo keen an his pursuing a music career and was even less enthusiastic about his plan for self imposed poverty. Stock pulse. Unload Preu  , Jan. 3nvse can Politi Mill Acyl in by comma Slock div vol Mph earn be fun Ciropol Iii per Sparfv Eihorn Airun carb car Chacon Zafoc Cpl Hys com Stacki Rcck  Viacom Coloro  Peijin Zola Rico Pafco atlatl 1 30.1 3.91 to 1,1l.ltt.lm a to 10.0 57 l4ib,� 2 1.41 1.0 11.0mo,$u Siu o.5i  3.6 i in us i mid nj1,754,000 7s 4j l.ilj.700 t,v.1 1.7 11.0 , 12,Soo a 1, 5.12 to 3  is a 3.w  0.1i,1u7,o 311 us 9.0 1.0 Palti la rant kit a mini Clou in of earn be Vukovi 2 i f ?.is  ill 14t  31 11 2. 1h-11 Jit Jet  Mph 50 1 1.1/1 12.0 0.1 44� 24 3.u 11.0 is7411 1 a.41 l0 3.9 met 3 u 11.0 3jjsm of 1 l. Nil 31 351/1 1 3.09 11.0 0.4 49 9 2.72 i4d  Amyx Chu doubt a roil act tvo Fly v4umsrocx a Val car Tel Earni be rid Wick ,100 1 i �. Dome Pedro w,i0023-lt Bat  i of 7. 3.3guff Cotta 277,700 15 11.3 am ii  4su of 11,0wimble  10  Chi ,900 7.tie my  7 Elpi Olaf 1.joo tort 0.4amdahl  i4 1  11.0 1.4 Ami comm try lir Wil hit change so a Clouch by  be y d a Widuta in Illi so t 4,97 icily Ncncy 14 4 i 0.57 21.0 1.1 in Rundle 31m-i  4elkam 19v4 1h 10.19 10 i Toni Only us a 2.0s Ujj 2.4 a a Luna 43u i1/  13.0 44admrui 1 a  if a us Rator Llam a 8 4 a on Micro kit 1 t.2l  0-s  Trie to Minoi Etta old  Tam def a Felt St my i Ithaca to Irmini Krait h Monni. Pm Contd investor s guide q. I a some two year is. Treasury noles with a Nimitr Date of june a 1986. A of. Trwin Bonds and notes � clipping of a nolo Mil lists its Price a 187, As of june 1986, but so tit dropping of 12.62 in july i9s6. I Don. Under Hind this. Hic 1 misread he clipping a yes the numbers you mention Are not prices. They Arih Vintere Rigour Federal government pays on two different Issue of Treasury notes. The Only trea sury note Issue due to mature on Jne 0. �9b6. W one paying 14.875 percent annual interest. Jha u the 14.87 number in the table with the final digit deleted. For every $10.000 face value of those noles you own you receive $1,487.50 annual interest -. $74 3j5 every six months because Treasury noles and Bonds pay inter eat semiannually. ,,and. When your notes reach maturity you will receive their full face . I the 12.62 number immediately below theber in the Rale column of the newspaper Treasury and notes table has nothing to do when your roes. The number refers to the 12.625 percent " 2-6Tfinal digit Issue of Treasury notes due to july i9f6. That s an entirely different Issue of the you own. Also your confused Abou oth of your notes. The notes you own Are those particular notes were issued in four year notes. It May be that you bought your notes in 1984, when they had two Yean left to maturity leading you to be Lieve you purchased two year notes. Not so. Please Don t think i am picking on you but you should find out what you re buying before you make any invest ments in the future my Strong suggestion is to sit Down with your broker or banker and have every investment you make or Are considering making explained in de Tail. Fortunately the Treasury noles you now own have been excellent investments. However if you re mixed up on what you re buying you might make some bad invest ments in the years ahead. Q. I it 78 and May lose my sight. So i would like to buy to yur Treasury notes. Is this possible a. The . Treasury issues noles with maturities of anywhere from two to 0 years at different times de pending of the Federal government s needs to finance this nation s debt. If a 10-year note Issue is offered for Sale you can Purchase some at that time. If no such new offering is made you can buy whatever previously issued Long term note Issue is available in the secondary Market where notes Are traded. A brokerage firm or Bank will handle the Purchase for you. Q. Can t Purchase to a. Treasury notes maturing in two or three years and hate the interest paid to me monthly or quarterly a. You can t have that arrangement if Ali the notes you Purchase Are of the same Issue for the simple reason that notes pay interest semiannually. You can accomplish what you have in mind by buying noles with different maturities which pay incr Sci at different limes. For example you can Purchase some notes that pay interest in March and september and others that pay interest in june Oad december that Way you la get an interest Check quarterly. And if you buy six different note issues one paying interest in january and july the second in february and August the third in March and september the fourth in april and october the fifth in May and november the sixth in june and december you la receive an interest Check every month. Here s a word of caution. You la probably have to pay a commission markup and or service charge on each note Issue you buy. The mra costs involved could negate the advantage of receiving monthly interest checks. Also the Lotus commissions markups and or service charges on two or six purchases of notes almost certainly would be higher than on one note Purchase. Kuna a aurut cum Neil dual  Wal lion Aue Iliani bul a can provide answers Anlo through Elf Cpl Ron. You can Willa in him in care Al to tvs Lan fend sir Lei  09211, .