European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - January 6, 1986, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 the stars and stripes monday january 6, 1986 columns & comments Tom Wicker Here s what you have to look Forward to this year f _ Thi Bhe for anyone who survived 19k4 and i h5. It s not hard to predict what will happen in 1986 Jan 10 the constitutionality of the Framm Rud Man Hulings deficit reduction Bill is challenged an grounds dial ii improperly yields the congressional Power of inc purse to the executive Brunch. Feb. I the Reagan administration discovering thai Nicaragua threatens the Tenn Cusce join Bigbee canal seeks $21 Milliun in humanitarian Aid including Poison Gas Tor the  March i Sis government employees arc charged with spying. Cia director Casey demands that nil members or Congress submit to lie Detector tests. Admiral Point Cirr president Reagan s National Security adviser objects on grounds Phil nobody could expect Mere machines to meet such a Challenge March 15 rep. Jack Kemp not yet an announced presidential candidate makes a pilgrimage to the birth place of the Rev. Jerry Falwell to announce a crusade to redeem the holy land for the american family. April 1 Gramm Riedman Hollings is challenged in inc courts As an improper exercise of executive Power. April 15 Pat Buchanan taking Over us National Security adviser utter poin Dexler s ouster says Lic d be it Iii to take a lie Detector test having leaked nothing sensational since lie Nixon administration. May i vice president bus i not yet in a noun cd presid enlist candidate makes a pilgrimage to the grave of Joe Mccarthy where he demands who promoted parcs so june 1 Amtrak announces that it has Cut off five More trains eliminated 10 cities from its routes and raised fares in order to prove to the Leagan administration that Amtrak is efficient and necessary. June 15 sen. Bob Dole no More an announced presidential candidate than anyone else makes n Pil Grimage to the front porch of William Mckinley from which he challenges Grain Trudman Hollings for not saving Money on social Security. July i sen. Edward m. Kennedy announces that his Nephew Joe will not be a candidate for president in i Fiti and maybe not even in 1992. Aug. I unemployment Falls by Dos percentage Points enabling Lurry Speaks to announce thut Rea Gan wishes to snare the credit with Donald Regan. Aug. 15 Gramm Rudman a Phipps is challenged by some conservatives on grounds it might cause lures to go up. Aug. 16 Gramm Rudman Hollings is challenged by some liberals on grounds that it will not produce new revenues. Sept. 1 Reagan s poll standing rises above 90, prompting Regan to share the credit Wilh Reagan sept. 15 just before meeting with Mikhail Gorba we Pip i now 3ust m4ke sure he porn t touch pefen3e-" Chov or maybe just after Reagan announces that slur wars is not a bargaining Chip and neither is Regan. Oct. I Gary Hart the democratic front runner for 1988, though not an announced presidential Candi Date says he has nut yet decided whether to run for re election to the Senate from Colorado. This is not indecision he insists rather he dares to be cautious. Oct. 15 Jynne Kirk Larkk makes a pilgrimage to the graveyard of the san Francisco democrats where from Ger Aljine Ferraro s old podium she announces thai she has no plans to accept inc Republican Nomi nation for vice president in i9hb. Nov. 1 americans having got a better look at the professional political aspirants to the presidency none of which is As yet an announced candidate speculation rises about such non professional possibilities As Lee Iacocca Pelcer Ueberroth the Rev put Robertson and Charlton he ton. Nov. 5 after winning overwhelming re election against a challenger from the vegetarian party gov Mario Cuomo announces that he intends to carry out his responsibilities to the people of new York. Nov. Is Sens. Gramm rude in and Rollings Challenge Gramm Rudman Hollings on general principles whatever they arc. Dec. 1 Sylvester Stallone portrays u Secretary of defense in u film called dirty rainbo with cling Eastwood making twin Cameo appearances As Rengan and Regan. Dec 15 Cuomo announces thut his son will head u Blue ribbon panel to determine whether running for president is one of his responsibilities to the Peop of new York. Mayor Koch will not be a member. Dee. 31 All parties discover that Gramm Rud Man mailings has solved nothing. New York Tolmei William Safire eventual a Oriff Rule predicted for South Africa hard liners in the intelligence Community were somewhat spooked when they received a recent daily intelligence briefing from the stale department. In a Sis part series on South Africa classified confidential meaning if this gels out. It s no big Dealan analyst in stale s Bureau of intelligence and re search wrote the ruling National party still the dominant Force in South african politics has the ability to move toward genuine Power sharing with Blacks or to deny political rights Over the near  innocuous enough. Then cum inc line that shot up eyebrows Only across the River eventually however International pressure Domestic turmoil and demographic trends will bring majority Rule to South  majority Rule is a phrase spoken Wilh reverence in the United states which fought a civil War to Seal it in its democratic system. Bui in South Africa where non Whites outnumber whiles 4 to i majority Rule Means Black Rule Wilh All in fears of a vengeful oppression of the while minority and few Whites who today outs Okenly denounce apartheid espouse Black Rule. In fact the dreaded Prospect of Auto critic Rule in the name of a majority As it exists elsewhere in so much of Africa is what freezes Progress toward one Man one vote. A majority that tramples on inc rights of peaceful minorities has no moral claim on inc right to govern them. A state department spokesman tells me that this surprisingly Frank prediction of majority Rule is the judgment of one intelligence analyst and is not necessarily the View of the United Stales. Bureau of intelligence analysis arc encouraged Tel put Forward their candid opinions of Likely outcomes and that in this Case eventually could mean a Long Long time. Analysts in the Pentagon und Cia know All those caveats and Many who still believe in constructive engagement consider state s assessment to be realistic. While deploring a mindset that makes such a conclusion a self fulfilling prophecy they observe that throughout this Century elites have frequently headed for the Hills when popular pressure reached the blow off Point. Intelligence analysis have noted that a great Many South Afri can Whites have already arranged for some other place logo leaving inc hard Core afrikaners la Circle their wagons. Despite differences in methods most americans want the same goal in that country in end to apartheid Freedom of movement and of the press a peaceful transition from White Rule to a Type of government that establishes majority Rule with Iron Clad protections against the Tyr Anny of the majority. In other words we want South Africa to evolve quickly into a society much like ours Wilh the slight exception that its majority is Black and ours is while. The rouble is that is not Likely to Hap pen. A More realistic prognosis is u continued Cycle of violence and repression. Two different societies in the same place want the same resources and eventually numbers will Triumph Over firepower. Thai would not be a Victory for majority Rule As we think of in. A Fine judicial system May be overthrown reverse apart Heid May come into being with minority rights denied a Radical regime would surely be More attracted to the soviet bloc than the West and the lives of Mil Lions would be endangered. How do we help South africans avoid that aside from helping Jonas Sav Imbi achieve majority Rule in neigh Boring Angola what can we do to prevent he spread of communism in Africa when Realises Are pessimists the trick is to slip out of the clutches of realism. Knowing that moderate Whites Urc most Likely to be the first to leave we should exhort them to slay knowing thai Moder ate Blacks Are most Likely be the first to be thrust aside by the Radical politicians we should still make heroes of the Moder ates. Knowing Hal removal of our sup port Oflyn brings Down the bad Only to Sec them replaced by the worse we should nonetheless shun the bad and seek out the belter. It could be that the Prospect of a bal Ance of terror will Force an accommodation. If Radical Blacks threaten massacre Radical whiles will threaten nuclear retaliation As extremists approach that Brink moderate voices May not seem so unrealistic. At thai Point fear of a threat to com Mon survival nol Only International pressure Domestic turmoil and demographic trends will bring majority Rule to South Africa. Cd new York tli.111