European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - January 13, 1986, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Weighing pros and cons of  continued from Page 13j unlit the late 1990s, or alter the year 2000." yet there seems to be some variance in of racial american assessments of the relative Proy Recs and Sirius of me soviet and United slates research. Defense depart men officials Gay the russians Are making a lot of Progress sometimes citing some torm of laser research. The 1335 version of an annual Pentagon report made Public Las March said the soviets do not Lead in a single area of defense military technology. The Rand corporation a research institution that gives analytical advice to Tho air Force has done a number of studies of soviet research programs. One study published in May 1985, concerned free Electron lasers which Abrahamson has identified As perhaps the most promising laser for antimissile Welense. These lasers work by jiggling billions by electrons free of their atomic nuclei in powerful magnetic Fields to Emit concentrated Light beams. The Rand report said the russian Elloul was of Lossl equal to he Amar can one in this Field n arms of manpower and the depth and breadth of research in tree Electron lasers. But the report said that american scientists had Dona twice As Many experiments which is the key to verifying a concept and that they had obtained significantly better results. In contrast there is Lime doubt that. If the first soviet response to Star wars is indeed to gel More missiles to saturate or overwhelm in american space shield the russians can do so As they have working production lines. Several experts have observed that irom 1980 to 1984 the soviet Union Bull More than boo new intercontinental ballistic missiles while the United slates has nol produced any intercontinental ballistic missiles or years. Stephen w. Meyer of the Massac Huells Institute of technology. Who is an authority on soviet military policy and a consultant to the Pentagon says the russians probably have about 1,000 missile boosters or rockets stored but not deployed. At the Zabita Over Likely soviet responses has evolved. It has thrown increasing doubt on such concepts As president Reagan s declarations thai Star wars technology could be shared he the soviet Union. Because of the asymmetrical nature of the Basing of soviet and United slates strategic forces several american analysts say exactly equal Levels of Welense would put the United Stales Al a disadvantage. Echoing thl Aview Abrahamson said Las month thai it is imperative that a have a much More Elle calve defense than they  ii the a Laborado space shield system is to a Pul into effect All agree thai its system Musl be Abe to survive an attack the quamily american strategists Call survivability. The experts Are also trying 10 make the system hard of resistant to Aslak. Col. George Hess the Star wars director Lor survivability. Weapon lath Lily space logistics and several other aspects of the program said that survival Lily of the system is probably the most critical element to the Success of s. D.  in an interview Hess said one analysis carried Oul Over the course of More than a year has indicated that we can improve the hardness of a deployed . System with reasonable levers of , a added this does t say we can make them hard enough critics say the system must have what is called ending survival Lily. Or the ability to withstand Root Orty a Large Quick spasm attack but also an attack of attrition. Star wars in Strate flt the russian response attention try outsiders and insiders has increasingly turned to the vexing problem of when her components even their creation is Clenti Scally possible can be  into an operationally feasible system in which Many components can a lied together in a whole that will no rail in a crisis. Since last Spring computer experts have been debating whether reliable computer programs can Ever be written that will insure that the Star wars defense to trustworthy. Although Public attention has been drawn More to exotic elements like death Ray directed Energy weapons the problem of space logistics or the Cost of Access to  is also important. This is particularly True ii the Lynal system requires a Constellation of thousands of satellites and Many relay and fighting mirrors for users Tho Type of system mat was called Ideal in a study by the strategic defense initial five organza lion that was made Public Lata this fall. After Thyrol year of research on ills problem those conducting the study envisaged a Complex seven layer system of weapon platforms. Other arrays of tour live and six tiers of weapons Ware also considered As Well As a system in which most components would be on Earth rather than in space. Mess said that if the Cost of lifting a Pound of material can be lowered from is present Price of up 10 $3,000 a Pound or less. It becomes within the Bounds of the reasonable. He added thai with All such questions the Burden of proof is clearly on  those involved in the strategic debate Are also beginning to concentrate on some other Long Range Eti acts of strategic defense. Martha Sergei of  chief of soviet general Haff. A will have nothing to a but to take up retaliate by medium in res Fiu of both offt Miva and it Ontive  sceptics say that wooing or  the soviet Union into adopting missile defences May kill the pro Ray called " extended deter hence the threat that the in Law Stales might first use nuclear weapons if the soviet Union made a conventional attack on Western Europe while some critics suggest that extended deterrence might disappear 11 the soviet Union had defences Star Ware a Ozone nos think the policy is More credible if Ihl United states has Protection against missile attach. It is also increasingly Clear to most analysts thai the now vestigial american air defense will need to be / recreated because Star wars will not be designed to meet threats from weapons like atmospheric Boatwri and Low Hying cruise missiles. And it is now being said that the antimissile defense would be much More Elle calve with a serious civil defense program. Another Lurn the Star wars debate has taken has been renewed concern with what constitutes a psf it shield against missiles a near perfect one or indeed of Leaky onegin 1984 Ashton Gaiter a Harvard University Bra Toufe and scientific expert said in a report to Congress thai i near perfect defense was not possible. Al that time a year after president Reagan announced the Star wlff1 idea the conclusion was controversial. -.-. Nobody thinks it is controversial today oceans Fyte said. Instead of stressing the goal of a Del Sosa that is Nwart perfect by the Standard of How Many soviet nuclear warheads it could shoot Down Admire Strallow Flautz. Now stress thai ii Star wars could Only deny he _ russians Only goal. It would be Good  i George a. Keyworth ii he White House Shcieno adviser has Long been an adherent of president. Reagan s vision of a near perfect defense of ins american civilian population. But he said recently that i a soviet planner can no longer be confident his War " plans because of an american defense than nuclear. Weapons have been made obsolete since they have lost their military  one of the Moil thought provoking reports on Star wars was made Public in september 1985 by to office of technology assessment an Armol co grew rather than by the administration. It raised some new questions about the rationale for Star  though in Many ways the report was severely critical of it proposal one administration Star wars official cab�1 the study excellent and said the level of the National debate is  the office of technology assessment learn drawing in Parl on analyses by the Rand corporation former government officials and scholars reached some disquieting conclusions. Hera Are some of the conclusions of the report l Bott the soviet Union and the untied Stales he similar but limited defences the United states my film protect More nuclear warheads in a Soi Lel first eur let. But if the United Stales retaliated fewer of its warheads would actually reach soviet targets and explode flown than under the current circumstances because of Tow soviet Welense system. The net Cost of nuclear War to soviet leaders would Ihus be reduced and War trouw become More thinkable. -. In almost any scenario the existence of defences makes striking first a More attractive Pollon. Ii the. Solve is were to strike first for example even a i soviet Welense would have to Deal Only with a re response irom a diluted United Stales Rel Ellalora Arsenal. Again. I was suggested that this would a theoretical incentive for nuclear conflict. One of he most dangerous Poss Lillif Les of All s y Page 14 the stars and stripes  -