European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - January 13, 1986, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Progress and problems the new exotic arms space based lbs we i Throe would Combine chemicals in the Iru nor or rocket engl Nea to Tiro Boma of concentrated laser Energy through of Rico. Lately inv l Fly at Luster because of ears about Ida vulnerability of Izacc Tia Sod Otic acts. Ground Batty Tuen do teos especially Trout Oret Tjun r would Bonnes Boam Eoff Orti Lilno Battle Mirror toward enemy missiles. Such by Iorns. Whitti Are cheaper because heavy Las weapon i. Ground Bawd interceptors a Teleg Cnnon clonal rocket Tochin ology. In bib would be used to destroy enemy warhead during final phew of their Intel. Lint Bolo re they he target.  Ore Orten a Lew a Ideal or Oelen Ditill held of Morlun rate Stoa  an conomy could try to outwit a Ihlfeld by Nila King it or by complicating us Job. Chair dropped Tram Mia Silee could confuse space based radars and Tensors.  Lar Galing. Missiles and  mlrrof4lka  Roll net laser Hoamg Moat challenging of All. An exploding nuclear warhead. St Oil Accad Enlalia by Delend Eror Intel anally Bye Nomy would Send out  pulses that would wreak i Avn in Eloctio Ai asst ferns in Alpaca and on Garth. Set gallon in which the defences of each nation Are to a significant extent vulnerable to preemptive attach by the Olar bide. The argument Here Loo is thai this situation makes a Glrst strike attractive the technological uncertainties of missile Welense May Lead to strategic uncertainly we a defense there will be More possible outcomes but fewer certain ones for a nuclear War. The Ollice of technology assessment report aside Abrahamson s organization was already involved in strategic thinking. A satisfactory strategy the general said will be a vital element in the decision which could come in six years on whether to undertake full scale engineering development production and eventual deployment of an antimissile defense. Strategic contingencies and possible soviet l Hook up. We must w a responses Are seen by the defense department analysts As indispensable tools in designing and integrating a workable defense. Abrahamson and his assistant such As Gardner say that they and their stalls have been involved in Complex nuclear War games and nuclear Exchange calculations. Put simply Why argue that their strategic analysis tends to prove that at each level of defense from modest to Good including Mutual defense by the soviet Union that deterrent posture is  the sir Alagic Del anti initiative analysts end those elsewhere in the Pentagon say their studies Are More  than those of Nan  analysts and Are based on More Complete secret data on soviet and american military capabilities. But one non governmental soviet affairs specialist who was recently invited with several colleagues to participate in a secret War involving Star wars defences said we found we were playing against defense contractor personnel and others who know nothing about soviet doctrine. It took our whole team the red team less than 20 minutes to agree that our first counter to Star wars would be to increase offensive missile numbers. Their team the Blue team said no that is not How the soviets think every step we took surprised  As with other analysis the office of technology assessment researchers found confusion in the government about the goals of Star Ware saying that the Pursuit of defences Able to protect the . Population and that of its allies in the face of a determined soviet Effort to overcome them does not appear to be a goal of the ,  such a conclusion might seem controversial to those who have not closely followed the Star wars d Bale because president Reagan and other non technicians have often implied that Active Welense of people by a shield is a major goal. The office of technology assessment analysis buttressed their statement with a Wilda array of remarks by senior government Olla class that seem to con term their conclusion that the More immediate aim of the plan is to protect missile silos not people. The difficulty of defending civilians is illustrated in a scenario that has been postulated several times by non administration analysts. According to this scenario a "99 percent effective missile defense would nol protect 99 percent of the american population 11 would Only shool Down 99 percent of soviet missile re entry vehicles or warheads. If such a defense existed the soviet Union could simply target 100 warheads on each of the 90 most populous cities in the United Stales with such a defense the russians could be confident of destroying almost Al of their targets the office of technology assessment estimated thai Between 10 million and 25 million deaths could result irom such a leakage  the report said deaths could be kept to one million or fewer Only with Welense that was 90.9 percent Elle calve or Betler. Another consequence of the debate Over the value of Star wars is the new attention to what is called rational soviet military doctrine. The administration position rests in part Lor example on an Assumption that it would be lunacy Lor the russians to choose cities rather than purely military Sites As their targets. Thai Assumption is based essentially on the theory that attacking cities would bring horrible retaliation. Critics argue however that this Assumption May nol be valid. It is conceivable that you could have a Welense so Good that the soviets would have to aim 100, or 200, warheads at each of our largest  said Thomas h. Karas. A space policy analyst and the director of the Ohice of technology assessment Leam that prepared the Mcpoil in any Case when decisions about the effectiveness and actual working Structure of a missile defense depend heavily on what is called rational soviet military policy the nature of the Star wars debate changes. You land that you Are no longer arguing about strategic defences but that you Are arguing Aboul concepts of nuclear War  said Peter Harlman manager of the International Security program in the office of technology assessment. It is a proper argument but goes Way beyond the technical analysis of what Welense can or cannot  Karas said an interesting question is did we feel secure in the Early 1960s when the soviets had a Small number of inaccurate warheads that could Only be used against cities and that is essentially what , is offering the Prospect of returning  the stars and stripes Page 15. 19s6