European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - May 31, 1986, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Jew syrian tactical missiles said to raise War risk its. Purported  recent terrorist incidents israeli statements were widely interpreted As amounting to a warning of reprisal but other statements by israeli government optic gals indicated there was no immediate Clanger of War. In separate interviews recently both pores and Haes Assad the syrian president said they did not believe warfare was Likely. Nevertheless the concern of the military analysts about the missiles is High now in part because Long Range tensions have been rising Between Syria and Israel and in Par because Syria has been steadily increasing the size and readiness of its missile Force military analysts agree thai if War appeared Likely each Side would have incentives to lire first because of. The importance of the new missiles. Israel can defend against surface to surf Ece missiles Only by destroying their launchers before surface to surface missiles Are fired said sell Carus. A miliary analyst for Iha american Israel Public affairs commit Lee a Washington group that supports Israel As the inventory of Arab ss-21 missiles grows. Israel May ind that it can no longer tolerate the damage that could be inflicted by a strike from tactical ballistic missiles cams said in a paper presented at recent hearings held by Quayle. If there is a danger of an Arab attack Israel will be forced to strike first Carus said. Other military experts said the syrians too would feel pressure to use their missiles at the outset of a War. For the syrians obviously ills a first strike weapon and the israelis have to recognise it As such an american military analyst said. This expert said there were reasons to expect Syria to behave cautiously. Israel s policy of pre Empting its enemies Means that Israel would strike the moment it noticed signs warning o1 a possible attach. He added that the syrian missiles although accurate were few in number and that in past conflicts Syria had Noi Baan Able to use Complex weapons to their full potential. A group of these missiles by themselves is not going to Knock out Israel s forces he said. They could do seme damage if fired first but ii you Are Syria and you use them you d better be ready to fight e  in a detailed review a syrian missile forces published tile Anlo i his Syria it receiving soviet ss-21 tactical Short Range Sutra be la air Flea Mitt Ilet Here an Parade in Moscow. Last year by the Marine corps Gazelle a privately published Magazine directed toward retired and Active duty marines one analyst concluded that the syrian. Force is presently capable of suppressing or neutralizing almost All Israel air Force All leads in Northern Israel Tor 12 to 24 hours the analyst Joseph f. Bermuda jr., whose article was based on interviews with former Arab and israeli military officials and on research in arabic and hebrew my Liary publications said this would give Syria time to storm the Golan Heights a Region captured from Syria in the 1967 Arab israeli War and held despite syrian efforts to recapture la in 1973. La is probable thai the syrians believe that the effective suppression of the Israel air Force airfields in Northern Israel could possibly Avert reoccurrence of the 1982  in which the israelis scored a decisive Victory Over syrian air and ground forces Bermudez whole. In the 1973 Arab israeli War Syria fired about 35 older soviet missiles which Western analysis Call frogs at israeli bases. Egypt also fired a few frogs and other soviet missiles known As scuds. Bui because Liliose missiles Are far less accurate than the newer ss-21 s and ss-23s and some were fired at he limits of their Range Israel was Able to tide out the attack Israel s Force of tactical ballistic missiles includes Lance weapons supplied by the United states in 197 5 and Jericho missiles produced domestically the. Analysts said. There have been unconfirmed reports that the Jericho could be armed with nuclear warheads. 3lj army has lost its Edge against arabs Deputy against Levy s wishes said in a recent Israel television interview that the army could use a Good shake up Many members of Israel s Knesset the parliament a us Boio it Gen Moths Levy right str Ali army thief of staff cd taking a map with other officer during Rodep Toymon Oll Taefi facet in Lebanon a year. Have urged a Public debate Over some of the issues raised in the Wald study a highly unusual procedure in a country so conscious of its Security one of the mailers which concerns the israeli parliamentarians is the fact that Levy allowed distribution of Only three of the Jour volumes refusing to include the volume that dealt with recommendations for the future. Levy approved the selective distribution of a full text of the study inside the army general stall Only alter being ordered to do so by the israeli defense minister Yitzhak Rabin even then. Levy refused to allow Wald to present his Case in person to the army general stall for longer than one hour. We made a my Utako the chief of staff and i in our treatment of the Wald report said Rabin to a meeting of the Knesset Security committee. The Wald study covers the 1967, ls73and 1962 wars and says that the israeli army has progressively lost the Battlefield initiative and sense of Man Euver which brought its greatest victories. Wald stressed Lor example that israeli forces have not exploited the advantages of fighting at night As they did in the past. Several present and former israeli generals sharply criticized Wald contending that some of his comments were caused by feelings of frustration and revenge. Some said Wald s recommendations were unrealistic and resulted from Wald s academic background and Lack of first hand exposure to Battlefield conditions. But other officers admitted that some of Wald s findings were Correct and that the army had already moved to Correct the shortcomings. I met with Wald and read his report with interest said maj. Gen. Valahu Ben nun director of the army s planning Branch. In the Branch we have worked a great Deal on the study and Learned the relevant lessons. Soma of them were implemented alter the report s submission and some will be put into effect As part of our Multi year planning Ben nun said. He emphasized thai the army commissions Many studies of its performance but that it is rare for ail of a study s findings to tie deemed acceptable. Anyone who is a general on the staff if am the chief of staff on Down was once a Soldier a sergeant or unit commander except for Wald said Farmer chief of staff la. Gen. Res Rafael Elton. Wald never crawled with a rile through a Field of thorns under  Stan who has been criticized for his handling o israeli forces in Lebanon said night fighting there would have increased civilian casualties something Israel wanted in avoid. Defense minister Rabin himself a former army chief of staff called Wald a Brilliant Man and an excellent systems analyst but he has no military experience and his study is Lull of  Rabin also criticized the study s occasional Strong language. The stars and stripes Page 15