European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - August 9, 1986, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 the stars and stripes saturday August 9,1986 columns Tom Wicker or. . Affairs exegesis on Michigan primary whatever if anything vice president Bush won in inc crucial go for broke Early Bird Mich Igan Republican primary Cost his backers a Cool Mil lion dollars which maybe they should think is not so Cool. Meanwhile rep. Jack Kemp came in second or maybe third whichever sounds Best on the nightly news although ii is not Clear what either second or third it Isahl mean. Kemp nevertheless May be but Croff than Bush on Ilic morning after because whatever he won or lost did t Cost him to million. The Rev. Pal Robertson was also second or third whichever Kemp want and you be the judge. The reverend either proved he is a viable candidate or he did to according to whether you thought in the begin Ning thai he was or was not. It is not Clear who incr he went to the cleaners for Al million or More or less bul in his line of work that s walking around Money anyway. It is. However possible thai All of inc above is wrong except that Bush dropped the is million which is verified by the fact that none of his handlers has denied it. This was Par for the course in this first important non event of inc 988 presidential Campaign which of course began in 1986 or maybe even 1985. What actually happened though nothing May have was possibly that some republicans elected some delegates some of whom May or May not have been pledged to one or More of the three candidates these delegates in turn though they might be pledge to somebody Don t have to stay pledged even if bought bul that does t Mailer because Alliey won t vote for any presidential candidate anyway but Only for some other delegates who will in turn vote for still others. These last As yet unknown either to heaven or to the six count pm six computers Bush is alleged by Bush insiders 10 have deployed will meet sometime somewhere i i about a year and decide who if anyone bul no necessarily one of the three competitors in the primary if that s what it was will gel Michigan s vote for the 1988 Republican presidential nomination. Or maybe they will Divide them human nature being what it is. The Wall Street journal and Abc news joined in taking a poll which is a quicker and cleaner method of getting results than Ordinary voting which is an old fashioned process at Bucsi. Statisticians said that As nears they could make head or tails of the poll and sex took we cd Warp w Ira pointing from results in 88 precincts out of 100 where 300 candidates were seeking to be delegates it appeared that 52 percent of the winning delegates were Buncom milled. Who could blame them but that is Only the factual situation. Naturally since this is american politics at its inexplicable Best the facts have to be interpreted for he Gullible Public. Here is the analysis therefore of or. . Attall who holds the literary digest chair of current and near term anthropology at nostradamus University from whom we shall be hearing occasionally As the election alas unfolds 1. What Bush got for his is million was primarily the credit for spending $ i million for nothing. This deliberate strategy in a tall s exegesis was finely calculated to Slop All this Bush is a wimp Bush a. You can t Call a Man a wimp if he is willing Tothrow away a million Bucks just to prove he s not a wimp. Americans want a president who is willing to goal the Way and Bush proved in Michigan that he will go All the Way out inc window if necessary to be president. And it probably will be  2. The big loser in atlatl s compilation was neither Kemp nor Robertson but inc press which descended on Michigan in what the Washington Post admitted was a Phalanx Attall saw significance in the word because he explicated the concise Oxford defines a Phalanx As a set of persons forming a compact mass. Banded together for common purpose.". _.,., the common purpose banding this Phalanx was to find a candidate who could make the covers of news Wick and time thereby officially becoming front run Ner Altai elucidated. You Ean l have an official front runner until somebody wins an important non Cuenl hopefully in an upset that puts him her or it on the covers of time and Newsweek and int live inter views on the today show Good morning Ameri Ca and whatever they re going to Call in at lbs this year. Since no such candidate emerged or could have i d have to say the press has putative egg on its collective face and 1 am Happy to Pul that on the record but you cant keep Good men Down in Ameri Ca. So for candidates and press alike it s on in a Phalanx to the Florida Straw polls the Iowa caucuses the new Hampshire primary and the people s Choice 0 a you Tumi George will in 88 election the messenger is the message after six years of jollity and song some re publican senators feel their sense of Well being Wither ing at the roots. But the democratic party is going through one of those patches during which even Silver Clouds have Lead linings and so in the november elections the party May suffer a crippling Victory. A Democrat anticipating 19ss recently said if we can l beat George Bush the democratic party should pick another  of course. Democrats talked that Way about Ronald Reagan in 1979. Bul thai also Ishow Many democrats feel about the Challenge of re capturing control of the Senate this november. Those feelings rest on theories that May or May Noi be Sand. Peter Hart and Geoffrey Garin both democrats have asked focus groups of voters to describe a situation in which they would like to be a Fly on the Wall to observe and judge a candidate.  1 have recurred. The voters would like to observe a Pri vate meeting about political strategy and the Candi Date at the family dining table. The litter according to. Hart and Garin in their introduction to the demo cratic fact Book supports their theory thai today the messenger is the  that is voters Are unusually interested in the candidate s character. Most voters agree about what problems Are important the budget deficit the soviet Union bul there is no widespread Confidence in particular solutions. Therefore voters say i am unsure which polic Choice should be made so i will concentrate on being sure about the people making the  Hart and Garin also Analyse midterm elections with reference to persons who As heroes or villains embody issues in 1974, the heroes were sen. Sam Ervin Ana rep Peter Rodino the villains were Nixon and Agnew. In 1978, the hero was Howard Jarvis the Flint who sparked California s proposition 13 tax revolt. In 1982, James Watt was a Symbol of re Janiie excess. Han and Garin say that in 1986, inc hero is democratic sen. Bill Bradley architect of tax Reform that puts special interests in their place and the villain is Mike Deaver Republican lobbyist. William Schneider of the american Enterprise Institute writing in the new Republic sees democratic Success for three other reasons. First presidential elections play to Republican strength the direction of National policy. Current polls show the Public thinks the gop Best equipped to perform thai task. Other elections Are Aboul benefits and services the democrats perceived strength in our political division of labor. Second television coverage is now coming More easily to candidates challenging incumbents making them More competitive. More Republican than demo cratic incumbents Are seeking re election in 1 �86. The third reason Schneider expects democratic Success i turnout. In most midterm elections there is a drop off in turnout a drop off detrimental to the president s party. If 1986 is like 982. Turnout will be 20 percent smaller and substantially More democratic than in 1980. The voters who May Home in midterm elections Are zeitgeist voters casual voters who Register less their passionate convictions than the National mood. In 1980, when such voters voted they reflected the anti democratic mood and 16 freshman republicans were elected. Bul even in those favourable conditions the 16 won with an average of Only 53 percent and five won Wilh 50 percent or less. Furthermore Many of the democratic incumbents who lost were vulnerable because they had last run in the unnaturally hospitable climate of the 1 974 watergate election. Schneider says big democratic gains in the Senate could be injun us to democrats because they May think they can Stop rethinking actually he says by gains in 1986 will mean As much for 1988 As the big democratic gains of 1982 Means for 1984 precisely  Many republicans supporting presidential candidates other than George Bush or Bob Dole Hope for a Senate split 50-50. Bush often would be nailed to a chair presiding Over the Senate to provide tie by cafe ing votes and Dole would find the duties of Republican Leader even More demanding. If however. Democrats control the Senate Dole s diminished due a minority Leader will leave him More free to Campaign. So democratic Success in 1986 could strengthen the Republican candidate who a growing number of re publicans consider Besl equipped to defeat democratic designs in 1988. Furthermore if Democrat control both houses of Congress 1987-88, republicans will run against them As the tormentors of the Gipper and the i Warters of his mandate. Republicans having had custody of most of the government for eight years would nevertheless be Able to do what they do Best which is run against government. This would reinforce the republicans most obnoxious habit and that habit might produce another Victory. Tin of Poleni Nix atm in the column and widow i Imi a by a int Tom of to us dare ind it in no any la Carat and h ref emf ing of pm i of Tim Bura and St Ftp or Mun iwo Sam