European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - October 20, 1986, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 columns the stars and stripes monday october 20,1986 William Buckley . Policy Likely to backfire in South Africa there were one or iwo Nice touches in the final Days leading to the override of president Reagan s veto. On wednesday the foreign minister of South Africa telephoned key senators and Lold hem that South Afri Ca might react against the imposition of sanctions in any number of ways including an interdiction of Al commercial traffic Inlo neighbouring Black states notably Zimbabwe. Sen. Richard Lugar of Indiana he chairman of the foreign relations committee and the principal Republican enthusiast for sanctions reacted explosively denouncing South Africa for ils attempt to meddle in american business. How zat it was meddlesome of South Africa to attempt to persuade the United Stales not to intervene in South african Busi Ness there arc paradoxes everywhere you look. Paul Johnson the British historian reminded Bishop tre Vor huddles inn of great Britain the leading spokes Man in favor of sanctions of what happened in therms Industry. Fifteen years or so Back Johnson re called the United slates passed a Law prohibiting the Sale of military equipment to South Africa with the result that South Africa cranked up its own military factories. The american response. 15 years later has been to prohibit any country to which we rive assist Ance from purchasing military equipment from South Africa. Perhaps the Only Way we could Ever generate enthusiasm for sanctions against the soviet Union would be to pass a Law prohibiting Trade with any country that trades with South Africa. And then of course there is everyone s favorite of which the rhodesian sanctions were the dress rehearsal. The Brave free world after imposing sanctions against Rhodesia found itself buying Chrome from the soviet Union at two or three times the earlier Price Chrome mined in substantial effect by gulag miners thusly we put our moral House in order. I against tie to the neighbouring Black Stales. There Are reasons to be angry with Robert Mugabe bul unless Zimbabwe becomes an armed Camp for anti South african terrorists to close off the Railroad to Commerce would be to afflict a relatively innocent  would please the South african government More than to deny the United states Access to the critical Micals South Africa almost uniquely has in common with the soviet Union. But there is no critical shortage in sight thai can t be satisfied by a Little Dis Creet trading with the soviet Union to which Lugar snot Likely to object. So then How is South Africa Likely. To react we have almost guaranteed that the anti apartheid movement within South Africa will now slow  have got to keep reminding ourselves that we live James Reston in an age in which Kamikaze Devotion to the state is suite common. The afrikaners who have been in ined under pressure of Domestic commercial considerations to encourage the liberalization of the racial Laws will now be scorned As collusive a cols of the West. If in our time we saw Brave men by the tens of thousands fight and die Tor the causes of Japan greater East Asia co Prosperity sphere and for Sta Lin and Hitler then we should t be surprised if Brave men by the tens of thousands find themselves fighting to the death for he awful cause of apartheid. It was always the Point of Ronald Reagan and a few others that the anti apartheid cause is set Back rather than advanced by aggressive sanctions against the government of South Africa. So what will Pretoria do it would seem Likely that it will move on several fronts. The likeliest of these would seem to be the forced repatriation of Black who have emigrated to South Africa from the neigh Boring Stales Back to Angola. Mozambique. Nami Bia Botswana and Zimbabwe. Second we should anticipate South Africa acquisition of the ultimate weapon. It is not easy of imag Ine exactly where South Africa would drop an atomic bomb but the Mere existence of a nuclear artillery has a Way of dulling the tone of foreign moralists of Hitler had got the bomb in 1944, we d have Bee introduced much earlier to the doctrine that there u simply no alternative to co existence with Hitler and finally we can anticipate a great in crease in violence by Blacks As unemployment in creases and the sense of helplessness becomes More acute. If the objective of . Policy toward South Africa is to increase the likelihood of civil War then we have just now acted with great statesmanship. In Law my Fabis syndic Bio Iceland proposals Merit Calm careful scrutiny the closer the United states and the soviet Union gel to a nuclear Ami Compromise the More they tend to tear it apart. The loudest critics of the Rea Gan Gorbachev Iceland proposals Are pulling up these new plants before they be had Lime to take Root. Almost everybody seems to have a objection. Some say the president Well too far to meet the russians others that he did t go far enough some say that he wanted Loo Long in his second term others that he s in too big a hurry. The joint chiefs of staff and some of the nato commanders object thai they weren t adequately consulted on the president s concessions and some leaders in the Congress complain that they were Given too Little information before the Summit and too much contradictory in formation later. No doubt Gorbachev is hearing much the same sort of thing in Moscow. All these objections have a Point Andare undoubtedly put Forward with the utmost sincerity and concern. Some ask what s the the soviet proposal of ngon Lens Mac i 0jiu  i the Point of blocking w it massive cuts in strategic nuclear weapons by insisting a theoretical Star wars missile defer that might never work and in any event could l be deployed effectively until the next Century. Rep. Barney Frank a mass made this Point with the worst mixed metaphor of the debate. The president he said was rejecting a Bird in the hand for pie in the sky. There has to be some Way to Analyse these proposals without pulverizing them to win a verifiable Compromise without demanding the unattainable. It s not helpful for example for the president to politicize the Issue in the Hope o Short Range aim in next month s congressional elections. Reagan pleaded with the democrats before the Iceland Summit to withdraw their objections to his nuclear policies and give him an Opportunity to negotiate for a United country. They did so but now he i out Onich slump arguing that a vote against his Star wars program is a vote for Gorbachev taunting the Democrat whose support he will need in the critical nuclear negotiations that lie ahead in the last iwo years of his stewardship. This does not mean that these intricate and dangerous issues should not be examined with the utmost care but fever there was a time for Calm non partisan discussion it is now. And the guess Here is that this would not Only be Good policy but Good politics. One understands the need for Skepi cism in dealing with the russians. They have not Kepi their promises in the past and part of the tragedy of the last world War is undoubtedly that the United tales was too trusting of the nazis and the japanese before Pearl Harbor. But excessive mistrust a tendency Al ways to and on the worst assumptions about one s adversaries to think that the russians Are just like the nazis to be Lieve every word they say about Worl Conquest and also to say that Gorba Chev a words mean nothing As Man people but not the president say is a defeatist policy of despair. It could almost be accepted As a Rule of world politics that do stale can Ever achieve the total Security it desires with out so tipping the balance of Power that it makes its adversarial afraid. This is the terrible dilemma that face both Reagan and Gorbachev at Reykjavik. It u unlikely that we can attain the Security we would like for ourselves Ardour allies without making the russians who remember Napoleon and Hitler fee insecure. I both sides have been prisoner of their nightmares Ever since they acquit nuclear weapons and fear of by eyes As he old russian proverb  we should probably not imagine Tatt All will be Well if our nuclear Wea Palfe make the enemy afraid for it is Ostuw that it is fear More than anything eur which is the Cuse of War. Before he Well to Iceland Reagan told reporters in the White House Bat no Lions Don t mistrust each other became they re armed they re aimed because they mistrust each  s at Reykjavik and since then the Prest Dent and Gorbachev have made Sals to relieve this mistrust so that they could not have been i Evena carago., at lean these suggestions , civil analysis free of blame w 4 " partisan rancor especially when it member that each Day Moscow Washington together produce six atomic weapons to add to the 50,000 thay already have