European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - October 26, 1986, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Utt a q 1,5010% q lmttim1.s% Magazine America s Swiss cheese Economy decisive election Issue by Omraam associated press his year s midterm elections come As the current economic expansion nears its Toursh anniversary but pockets of economic discontent have kept Check Book issues dominant in scores of 1386 races. Predictably Republican and democratic strategists disagree Over exactly How he nation s Swiss cheese Economy May translate into votes on nov. 4. But most analysts seem in agreement that depressed conditions in farm slates parts of the Industrial rust Belt and in Oil states will deny gop incumbent la much political mileage from any Reagan  and with the nation s Trade deficit soaring toward $170 billion this year adminis ration Trade policy has become a Factor in races in slates where Basic industries Are battered by imports textiles in North Carolina steel in Pennsylvania and aulos in Wisconsin. How people feel about the Economy will determine As much As any Issue who wins and loses this toll said president Reagan s pollster Richard . He said the Lack of any overriding National Issue this year makes the Economy an even More important Factor. Some analysts contend that the Overall Economy will be a Malor liability to republicans and nol just to time slates that Are hard pressed. There is a substantial level of nervousness about the status d the so called recovery. We be been m a by Long period of very Stow  said Chris  professor of political science at George Washington University. Etan la look at the Overas health of the Economy. And Thev a Reeve that it s son. Or fear that there s a nce Rizado Intuni that will almost certainly go a test the republicans a added sea Tow Overall Economy is much improved from the action in 1982. When Mere was a Sion  Toa Democrat analysts agree. In october 1982, for instance unemployment was 10,4 percent compared to its september rate of 7-0 percent. This election will look More like 1he midterm 1962 election when the president s John f. Kennedy s standing was Good and when tha Economy was in generally Good shape said Richard Brady a Stanford University political scientist. In term of tin margin we won t see As Many Seal changes this year As in 1962," said Brady who has done research on the link Between the Economy and elections. He said a statistical Model he uses which takes into account economic actors suggests a Republican loss of 12-13 seats in the House and that they will just barely retain the Senate or just barely lose it.". The republicans hold a 5w7 majority a the Senate and the democrats have a 253-180 majority with two vacancies in the House. Brody said local economic conditions could Stu have a major bearing especially in farm states. The news lends to portray a sounder More upbeat Economy than Many people Are experiencing locally he said it s realty hard to know what s going on he added. The Economy comes through in such indirect ways. No scholar Yel has satisfied himself or herself on How personal economic impacts Cany through to political  to David Johnson director of the Senate democratic Campaign committee economic troubles could help democrats in As Many As 13 Stales this year. It s a Swiss cheese Economy he said. There Many places where things Era nol going Well and where failed Republican policies Are Contr tailing to the Iba. Those Republican policies Are helping the  a said developments in Louisiana where depressed Oil prices have made a major Impact on Tow Economy arc Art important lesson to both Democrat end republicans Ual month no candidate garnered a majority woo in that stain s non partisan election forcing a nov.4 Runoff Between Reub Tucan rap. Herwon Moore and democratic rep. John Breaux. The republicans did everything they could to put Henson Moore Over the lop and they ailed. They spent $6 million brought in the president twice the vice president live times and members of the Republican leadership a dozen times. Ii did t  but Johnson s gop counterpart Republican senatorial committee director Thomas Griscom views things differently. The democrats have tried to capitalize on some of the economic problems. Sura there Are problems. Particularly in the Tarm Stales. People Are hurting. But i Don t think you re going to tool people that aft the problems of the past four or five years Are the fault of republicans and in Tow Tarm Belt Griscom said they Blama Jimmy Carter and his Grain embargo Pat As  Wirthlin the gop pollster used by the White House said that people have to a careful not to translate regional discontent As a Factor working against  in some areas it of ukr work against Democrat particularly in statehouse. Local discontent lends to Cut More against gov Emora than again denature or House members he said. However a conceded hat we Fin fee be i �