European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - November 26, 1986, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 columns Flora Lewis the stars and stripes wednesday november 26,1986 Iceland talks set new basis for arms controls the strategic debate has broken wide open in the aftermath of Reykjavik. North Atlantic treaty organization officials and others have come to recognize that despite All their reservations what was proposed there by president Reagan and general Secretary Mik Hail s. Gorbachev cannot be wiped away. Regardless or Hedges on both sides there is a whole new basis Tor facing the problems of arms control and this is beginning to sink in. Perhaps the most productive result of the Summit is that for the first time Ever responsible Western staffs Are beginning to look at Whit the positions Long mouthed by their political leaders would actually mean. Nato at the request of the German Delegate to a defense ministers meeting in Glen eagles after Reykjavik has ordered a study of what removal of All medium Range missiles from Europe would imply for the current and projected military balance. This has never been done before though the Zero option was implicit in the 1979 decision to deploy american missiles and was made explicit by Reagan in 1981. Also the american joint chiefs of staff have been asked for the first Lime to study what getting rid of All strategic ballistic missiles would mean although dras tic reductions have Long been american policy and Reagan envisioned total elimination in 1983. This is Progress. There has been the appear Ance of a wide variety of ideas on what to do about the nuclear menace for Many Yean. But in fact there has been an almost total intellectual paralysis on the Issue among officials nibbling at the edges of negotiating proposals but never really conceiving that significant change could be possible. The criticisms of Reagan s seemingly casual approach to such fateful questions in Reykjavik an mar Ginal a reflection of this reluctance to face up to any reversal of he arms race. It in t surprising that practically nobody profession ally concerned with strategic affairs likes the implication of Reykjavik. It forces re thinking of All kinds of Basic issues such As the nature of deterrence and the level of weaponry sufficient to assure it he link be tween nuclear and conventional forces what is Militar Jim Fain Ity necessary to maintain the psychological conviction that the Alliance Between Europe and the . Will hold. The experts have been caught with their old assumptions Down. This is True on the left As Well As on the right. There has to be a Broad new look quickly before the Alliance sinks into a morass of recrimination and impotence. Lord Carrington nato s Clear min ded Sec relay general told a meeting of the Atlantic Institute in pans that it May Well be the logjam is breaking up on arms control but he warned hat we won t achieve anything unless we Are  Alliance military guidelines must now be subjected to general review in the Light of several possible situations projected fro the Reykjavik proposals so that governments can align their expectations and responses. In recent months there has been a series of dramatic suggestions from people like the former Cia director adm. Stansfield Turner and the former defense Secre tary Robert Mcnamara desperately looking for some thing to break the deadlock. Nobody actually knows whether or not these Are Good ideas better or worse than Reykjavik better or worse thai no change at All. If it results in moving All these arguments out of the talk shops and on to the planners desks for serious examination Reykjavik will have been e remarkable Success. It is already a Milestone. Reagan budget Reform a ploy to cover red Ink the next con game from the while House will be budget Reform. President Reagan already is Trum Peting it As an idea whose time has  trans lated that says he s out of other ideas for camouflaging red Ink. Pieces of his Reform package such As submitting a budget for two years instead of one will be Worth while but the Centrepiece called capital budgeting is a Sham. Capitalizing is legitimate in private business As a Way of spreading the Cost of investments in future productivity across their useful life. It is not applicable to the Federal government but will be used to mask the fact there s no Way to meet next year s Gramm Rud Man target of reducing the deficit to s ids billion. Nothing so startling about that. We missed the fiscal 86 target of s180 billion by More than $30 billion and will miss this year s $144 billion bogey by at least As much. My guess is the fiscal 87 deficit will soar Over $200 billion making the miss $60 billion plus. The administration would rather lira Flam than the next Jira Wright of admit error however. It cooked the 87 budget books with the usual wildly optimistic assumptions about economic growth plus such gimmickry Ai Selling off Federal assets underestimating spending and relying finally on a presumed $11 billion dividend from tax Reform. Guesses about what the tax Bill will produce Are the stuff of opium dreams. Nevertheless the same estimators who predicted a Windfall in fiscal 87 for cast Revenue shortfalls in 88 and 29. Getting the 88 deficit Down to s108 billion in the budget that Mutt be submitted in february obviously is out of the question without a tax increase. The Reagan while Howe never admits such unpleasant realities. So Reagan will Ulk of capitalizing Triton subs and possibly funds spent on education and health precisely tie kind of trickery that bankrupted new York City like a squid spraying Black Ink to cover Iti escape. Actually there never was a Chance Gramm Rudman could wort. It Wai merely last year s Lum Fura. The Only Way to Hoodie the deficit is by cutting pending in meaningful areas such As defense Trad social Security or by raising taxes or both Reagan put the country in this Mew when be fell for the silly notion thai huge tax cuts would to stimulate the Economy the resultant tax dividend would pay for i arms buildup us till balance the budget. In 1981," he predicted a 1986 surplus of s28 billion. He was off by 1250 billion but who perfect he. As a result of his unprecedented fiscal irresponsible to the nation i More than $2 trillion in 4ew and will be at least $2.5 trillion by the Lime he leaves office. There s reckoning out there some puce no i can get away will Lucthi Folly indefinitely. In dwt might do us a favor by crashing this Houk of c sooner Ratter than later