European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - December 31, 1986, Darmstadt, Hesse Page 10 the stars and stripes wednesday december 31.1986 columns Flora Lewis loss of credibility a problem for . In Mideast leaders everywhere arc wringing their hands about the United states loss of credibility after the Iran Contra affair. But the problem May be even More in the wild ideas people Are prepared to believe when they can t be sure than in a loss of Trust in the word of the . Government. Credulity has always been a corrosive Clement in affairs Between nations especially in the Middle East where there arc often some grounds to enhance the temptation of conspiracy theories. The corrective has to be a demand for evidence stubborn insistence on common sense Short of proof to the contrary. But when proof appears what measures remain to permit confident rejection of rumours that blow Natu rally with fitful Force like wind in the desert How Are people to go on defending reason and realism scoffing at silly notions when facts turn out to be even sillier some people always insist on the truth of what they choose to believe because it makes life simpler removing the need to probe and adjust to contradiction. This is what makes Compromise and settlement so difficult. Suspicion is reinforced by naively believing the worst about others and it docs More damage than sceptical reticence in offering Trust. The Mideast is a part of the world with a tradition for grossly exaggerated rhetoric for a Gap Between pub Lic word and deed though private word is a matter of High Honor. Many have come to look to the United states As a Standard that provides at least some Mea sure for judging reality. Now what can be taken for certain this aggravates the distress among those who feel a need to rely on the United states whether or not they like its policies because it undermines their de sense against the irrational. Supposition is spreading widely now that washing ton no longer opposes a Clear Cut Triumph by either Side in the Iran Iraq War but has concluded that Iran is winning and wants to sidle up to the Victor. The revelation that the United states has been pro Viding satellite intelligence to Iraq for a lot longer than has yet been admitted according to authoritative sources provokes comment on the inhumane cynicism that guides iraqi bombers to targets in Iran to be countered by american supplied air defences. But some lapsing into credulity see a triple be trayal arguing that . Satellites could have warned Iraq effectively against the successful iranian offensive on the sensitive Fao Peninsula at the lip of the persian Gulf Early this year. The americans said the Fao attack was a diversion and the big Campaign would come much farther North some who know say. Now what was the motive they does t leave room for the accidents mis calculation and ignorance that play so Large a part in James Reston human affairs and thus it promotes More miscalculation and ignorance. Sober military Heads in Egypt and Jordan do not see any Prospect for ending the Long terribly bloody Iran Iraq War any time soon. There Are Many rumours about important contributions to Iran from saudi Arabia and the Gulf states As Protection Money and hedging even while these countries provide Iraq s major sup port. Hard evidence is unavailable. But there is consensus that the saudis and their smaller neighbors genuinely want the War stopped even at the Price of overthrow ing Saddam Hussein of Iraq but not at the Price of completely destroying Iraq s regime As Tehran de mands. A pro iranian islamic Republic in Iraq would endanger virtually All Arab states. Nor is an iraqi Victory desired but it is seen As increasingly improbable practically impossible. In this context of endless fighting that could take unforeseen turns the Lack of any appearance of movement toward breaking the Arab israeli deadlock adds to the gloom. Quiet probes and contacts arc going on Way and another All sides arc talking to each other nowadays and that is a big change from earlier refusals to recognize any Point in exchanges. But the guarded or indirect meetings Aren t getting anywhere. There is no momentum another victim of the credulity that ascribes to Washington alone the capacity for , the sense is spreading that As a result of the Reagan administration s fall from foreign policy Grace the United states is going to be paralysed inter nationally for at least two years leaving the Middle East to self destructive Drift. This in t necessarily so. American resilience can swiftly reconstruct firm knowledgeable foreign policy guidance and that is urgently needed. C new York Timos things will be different for Reagan s lost 2 years everything looks the same in Washington now shining in the Winter Sun but in a Way things arc quite Dif Ferent. The 100th Congress will be different when it convenes in january dominated by the democrats with new chairmen of the committees and a new speaker of the House of representatives. The White House will be different with a new National Security Council and new problems with the budget the allies and the soviet Union. Suddenly the fads and follies of the past Are Over. The question now at the turn of the year is now everybody will react to this new situation particularly president Reagan going into the last two years of his administration and wondering what hell leave behind. Will he come to terms with the fail ures of his illusions in the coming year now that the magic is gone and work for compromises on control of the Federal budget and the nuclear arms race or will he stick to his dreams of borrowing and spending to put weapons in outer space this we Don t know As Reagan goes into the Hospital near the begin Ning of his 77th year and thinks about what he will say in his state of the Union message at the end of january. As usual he is being advised by some of his old California buddies never to complain never to explain and never to apologize the old Central Intelli gence Agency 1119110 to stick it out use his veto against the democrats in Congress and go out fighting. This it seems is the Irish View of Don Regan and Pat Buchanan in the White House declare la. Col. Oliver North a National hero and fire him loss vice adm. John Poindexter Over Board and condemn the republicans for not supporting facts coming out of the while House that they did t know about. But there arc other voices in the Rea Gan administration. For example George Shultz at the state department is saying let s leave bad enough alone and try to work things out with the Congress the allies and even with the russians who Are in even More trouble than we Are. The new speaker of the House Jim Wright of Texas and even the new majority Leader in the Senate Robert Byrd of West Virginia Are in the old Mold of Sam Rayburn of Texas and Arthur Vandnberg of Michigan who differed on Home policies but believed that for eign policy really stops at the water s there s a vague feeling now on both sides of the political aisle that maybe our Domestic and foreign policy problems arc too serious to be left to partisan politics and personal Ambi Tion. A new generation of politicians is Al ready out in Iowa and new Hampshire thinking not about Ronald Reagan s problems but about How they might replace him. You can hardly toss a typewriter out of the House or Senate press galleries these Days without hit Ling some dreamer who hears Hail to the chief in the night. But the problem at the beginning of 1987 is not really How to replace Ron Ald Reagan but How to help him and the country through the next two years. This will probably require not Pri Marily what Reagan and chief of staff Regan or North or Poindexter did important As this is we can leave it to the historians and the psychiatrists but How to gel on to the end of the Century. For one thing in would probably be helpful if the president s Cabinet and his while House staff slopped fussing with one another and the new National Security Council under Frank Carlucci got out of the cloak and Dagger business and left a Little More room Tor the con duct or misconduct of foreign policy to the professionals who have spent their lives studying All these tangles. But probably nothing important willbe done about All these que Lions of Doc slip or foreign policy unless the president comes Back from the Hospital Wilh a different approach about How to organize his administration in the Short time he has left in the while House. He retains the support and affection of the american people though not As much now As before. Much therefore will depend on How Reagan foresees the future when he makes his state of the Union message. C a few Yolk times
