European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - January 20, 1987, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Paga 10 columns the stars and stripes tuesday january 20,1987 William Safire president Buchanan could ghost own speeches far be it from me to put the Kibosh on Pat Buchanan s possible run for the presidency but it s better thai the secret come out now conservative True be Lievers should know hat he is a member of the Judson welliver society. This group is made up of the establishment men and women who have written speeches for presidents during the last eight administrations. It is named after the first while House spec Wriler Judson welliver who was responsible for the reputation for eloquence held by Cawn Coolidge. Although the ghostly society has conservative win Dow dressing such As inc Eisenhower writer Brycc mar Low and Nixon Ian Ray Price its roster is shot through with such known liberals As Clark Clifford Richard Goodwin Harry Mcpherson and Arthur Schlesinger or. In the beam Earmen of a primary Campaign it would be leaked that Pat Buchanan has actually supped with the likes of these people. Why do i rat on my old Ninon colleague this Way because president Reagan s combative no Story can be written about Buchanan without the adjective combative director of communications is thinking about seeking the Republican nomination in 198$. If a Buchanan candidacy were to develop he could expect no Quarter from the left whose direct mail fund raisers Are in desperate need of a Bete Noire not wearing a Marine uniform or from the far right which insists on the most rigid standards of associational As Well As ideological purity. And pure is the word for Pat if your definition of conservatism looks to its traditionalist rather than libertarian roots. In " he Nixon years he was inc Coiner of such phrases As instant analysis and the new Federal ism and emerged from watergate not Only Ubes marched but strengthened. Pat was also the brains be Hind Many of the alliterative barbs of Spiro Agnew pusillanimous Pussy coolers and vicars of vacillation were Buchanan a nattering nabobs of negativism was mine and he survived the fall of that nolo come Dering Dayl Bot. In the Reagan fall from Grace he has sallied out from the White House Bunker to lash Back at this administration s tormentors and to castigate its Sun no do Len Wpm a yell Nowek takes atm a hear me g3r/� an Anthony Lewis Shine soldiers. His friends fear that pal As civil in private As he is Savage in Public has become Type cast in this role on the Ever burning deck. Should he run for president the argument for taking the plunge is that he would galvanize and turn out the True believers ignite a National debate with a Media Genic version of a Choice not an Echo and polarize the opposition the argument against is practical it would further split the movement i ranks Jack Kemp who has a Chance of winning a National Ete Clion now has much of the activist right s support but some of that strength May be drained by the televangelist Pat Robertson. A Buchanan crusade would undercut Kemp which it Why George Bush and Bob Dole Are hoping Buchana will dive in. As he prepares to leave the White House Buchanan is asking himself if his candidacy would serve the right or split and Svreck it. At 48, a lifetime i pct in advocacy he does not want to be the instrument delivering the nomination to a pallid centrist or be the one who denies the Republican right a nominee with a fighting Chance of winning the election. From Here on the sidelines i can say the More the merrier. At the Start let Bush pole and Kemp be joined by Baker Haig Kirkpatrick Buchanan Dupont Rumsfeld and As Many ministers in makeup who feel the Call. The political spectrum is not at neatly calibrated As Piepho Logiste say in the Crucible of the primaries leadership can be forged and a party reinvigorated. If a Buchanan platform feature a genuine Flat tax an end to farm subsidies and a pullout from the u.n., let s examine his  most people in the movement today Are Noton the sidelines. Between the time of Goldwater and the Era of Reagan a sea change has taken place in conservative bosoms the death wish has been re placed by the win wish. The right is not fated to sink gloriously with principles Buncom promised its activists seek a True enough believer who turns them on without turning everybody else off. My Hunch is that pal will take a provocative look around and then disappoint the effete corp of salivating editorialists. He May decide he can do Moreto Advance the movement on the air than on the hustings. Would have been Nice though to have a Judson welliver society dinner in the slate dining room of the White House with the president ghosting his own speech. It it Tina i non Owlet Black ruled nations dependent on South Africa Harare Zimbabwe the peasant and commercial Farmers of Zimbabwe both highly successful in recent years have piled up a big Slock of White Maize a milled Corn much in demand internationally. But for Export it would now have to go by rail to Durban the South african port 1,300 Miles from Here and that would take so of the Sale . Copper in Zambia tobacco and Cotton Here wherever you look in this Region the Story u the same. The Black ruled countries Are utterly and ruinous by de pendent on South Africa for outlets to he sea and the world. What it important to understand i that the dependence did not just happen it did not result from natural forces of the Market or geography. It was produced by politics going Back through the colonial years. And some Africa is doing everything it can to intensify the dependence. Four Yean ago South african raiders blew up the Oil tanks and pumping Sta Tion in Beira Mozambique from Whicha pipeline runs to Zimbabwe. Until re pairs were made gasoline had to be ship Ped by rail from South Africa. The Beira raid was just one example. South Africa has carried out armed at tacks on every one of the five countries it Borders. It has supplied the Rene Moe guerrillas in Mozambique who have filled and maimed thousands and mad Many of the country s roads and rail lines unusable. The Campaign of destabilization has been extremely costly. Including an Gola to the West which has been regularly attacked by South african forces and its unit a surrogates the damage has come to about 110 billion Over the last five years. From the viewpoint of a Small minority trying to hold Power by Force South Africa s strategy makes a kind of sense. Destabilizing its neighbors keeping them in economic Thrall South Africa then tells the world that any pressure on it will Hurt its neighbors. And it Points to their economic difficulties and says look Black government does t  for the neighbors it is critically important to reduce the South african Gripon their lives. That is so As a matter of economics even apart from the present political tension. The economic logic is  Zimbabwe with by far the Strong est Economy of the front line slates is extremely Short of foreign Exchange i Hab to Export its minerals and agricultural products. But the routes through South Africa Are too costly and subject to squeezing. The japanese for example have said they will buy Zimbabwe s Asbestos Only if the shippers avoid South african routes which they regard As Uncertain and politically embarrassing. We just have to shield our Economy from the deteriorating situation in South Africa As much As we can a White Busi Nessman said. We must Cut Loose to sur  alternative routes for the land locked countries Are the top priority of the nine nation economic planning group the Southern african development coordinating conference. But no one i have met in the Region in weeks of travel Tias tried to pretend that build ing Independence from South Africa will be anything Bui daunting difficult. Realism is the dominant mood. That is strikingly evident on the question of sanctions against South Africa. The front line governments All believe that heir Long run peace and Prosperity de Pend on ending the apartheid system and they think outside pressure is Essen tial to that end. Bui they Are realistic about their own vulnerability to coun Ter blows from Pretoria. Prime minister Robert Mugabe said lost summer that Zimbabwe would apply some sanctions at a minimum breaking links with South Africa. He has continued to say that privately and no one doubts his intention. But in fact nothing has happened yet and it it not Clear when something will. Officials Here emphasize now that the front line states should act in con  but there is no sign that any of the others Are eager to apply sanctions. Bot Swana Swaziland and Lesotho Are so de pendent on South Africa that nothing is expected of them. Mozambique is Loo weak. Zambia is in economic crisis. The White election in South Africa due in april or May figures in the calculations. If Zimbabwe took even the Mildest step before then president . Botha would surely try to impress his conservative electorate by massive retaliation. Afterwards there might be More restraint. There Are practical reasons for restraint in Pretoria. South Africa has a Large favourable balance of Trade with its neighbors for one. Indeed Over time destabilization will beggar everyone including its authors. The question the agonizing question is whether reason will apply in the dying agonies of White supremacy a Foh Toimi n