European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - January 29, 1987, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 the stars and stripes thursday january 29,1987 columns Tom Wicker front runners Likely to stay in front for a while sen. Bob Dole of Kansas who scores Well in he polls As a Republican presidential possibility wondered out loud the other Day about his Campaign. It s like dipping in the Ocean with a Teaspoon retold Bernard Weinraub of inc new York times. So you Sec 300 people or 400. Or you had one on ones. There Are Only 300 million More people to see. Per haps there s a better Way to do  if so none of inc present crop of Republican and democratic aspirants seem to have discovered it. They re mostly trooping dutifully off to show them selves in the Early contest slates having formed their exploratory committees and assured the Public that icy Are Only testing the  the few exceptions arc former gov. Pierre s. Dupont in of Delaware who has come right out and admitted being a candidate former Colorado  Hart who srams to be the front runner in Posi Tion papers As befits his reputation for new ideas and gov. Mario m. Cuomo of new York who might vet Surprise everybody either by not running or by following a Mai cry that does t require him to shake every hand in Iowa and new Hampshire. Thus the Campaign has assumed a formal Pat Tern As recently confirmed by a times lbs news poll the Republican front runners by substantial margin Are vice president George Bush and Dole in that order with former sen. Howard Baker and rep. Jack Kemp As Distant challengers and everyone else out of sight. Among democrats Hart leads Cuomo by a 2-to i margin Wanh no one else in double digits though Jesse Jackson is a respectable third. But a solid 25 percent of Floc republicans queried by the poll lakers preferred someone other than the nine hopefuls listed and 33 percent of he democrats could find no one to their liking on the list of eight possibles. David Broder that s As Manv democrats As favored Hart and nearly twice the number who liked Cuomo. These big pools of unlearning voters raise the ques Tion Why the great mentioned has not begun to Whis per about James a. Baker an Able Secretary of the Treasury who was an even Abler White House chief of staff in pre Pitburg and pro Iran Days or Jean Kark Patrick the Scourge of the san Francisco democrats or sen. Dale bumpers of Arkansas who had a Brief Vogue among democrats in 1984 before he chose discretion Over valor. Lee Iacocca fans might also Sec running room for their outspoken  barring new entrants or in Cuomo s Case no Entrance the chances arc Good thai the polls will reflect the tame picture with Only statistically insignificant changes throughout 1987. Thai s because the two leaders in each party Benefit from More Nam recognition than do the other hopefuls and because there will be virtually no Way for any of the taller to demonstrate upward movement or momentum be tween now and the Iowa caucuses in 1988. Speeches who pays attention in the press or Public and the More thoughtful the speech the Les news it s Likely to make. Proposals a dime a dozen and usually too circumspect to mean much. Endorsements the old Gray mares of politics gimmicks it seems in presidential 10 walk across Iowa or become a ski instructor in new Hampshire. Candidate cattle shows the National eyes Glaze Over at the thought of these stupefying  tests there Aren t any until Iowa if that s what the Iowa caucuses arc. The probable net effect is that the front Runcis Are Likely to remain the front runners for the next 12 months. That in turn May Well mean that when real voters actually vote for the first time somebody who had been ranked below undecided in the polls might pull off a spectacular upset say by coming in second or even first Iti Iowa with maybe 20 percent or less of the caucus Vole. That would mean practically nothing except a Sud Den storm of press coverage that would sweep the new phenom on a tide of headlines and to interviews into Hart so nearly won the democratic presidential Nomi nation in 1984. As Dole suggested there really ought to be a Bette Way. But until someone discovers it neither he nor any of his competitors is Likely to Slop dipping in the Ocean with their Teaspoons. C nov yawl Tenn what s happening with the Sphinx of Albany Many of my fellow columnists Are confused and puzzled by new York gov. Mario m. Cuomo s seem ing reluctance to get into the race for the 1588 demo cratic presidential nomination. But 1 think it s Clear Why he hesitates and the reasons do him credit. The governor is a Well known sports fan. He knows that when the new York mils clinched the division title last fall their fans Tore up the Field at Shea stadium he saw that when the new York giants won the National football conference championship a year s Supply of toilet paper for All the homeless in new Yor went wowing away in he gusting winds the governor is a modest Man and he just can stand the thought of inc ice rink in Central Park being chopped up to chill the Champagne if he wins the new Hampshire primary in february 1988. The thought of All the thoroughbreds at Saratoga being hitched to his triumphal Chariot if he wins the nomination embarrasses him. He Dors not want the sanitation workers Labouring for weeks to Clear the ticker tape from Broad Way and Wall Street if he should be elected president. That is Why he Hesi talks. And if you Don t accept that explanation you Are Welcome 10 concoct your own no one in the democratic party can figure out what the Heck is happening with the Sphinx of Albany. Cuomo is arguably the most eloquent and articulate figure in Public life. He has a Decani record and an impressive cond Lerm Victory under his Bell. But he seems unable to say yes or no to the simple proposition of running for president. He has scheduled Oul of stale speeches end aimed at a candidacy then seemed to Back away. He would rather till his journal with introspective jottings than declare his intentions. You arid 1 May be Able to Bear inc suspense but the Strain is beginning to Tell on More influential people. The new York times had a front Page Cuomo Story the other Day headlined confusion is evident on a presidential  an editorial the same Day complained in a somewhat Dilt Crint context of the maddening aspect of or. Cuomo s  other symptoms of unease about the governor pop tip in conversations with party and in Crest group Lead ers and Campaign consultants each of whom seems Mohave his or her own tale to Tell of the unresponsiveness of Cuomo s Circle to invitations suggestions or offers of help. None of this significantly reduces interest in Cuomo As a potential contender. But even among those who regard the governor As the most skillful Democrat in his use of the television medium the inattention in communication Al the personal level sends disturbing signals. In the past week a major Trade Union figure who has Long been a Cuomo fan complained in one Conversa Tion about the governor s seeming indifference to the Start next month of the Al Cio s endorsement pro Cess. In another interview a Black Leader questioned Cuomo s silence on the Howard Beach racial incident. In both instances the Lack of communication produced suspicions which would never have been plan Ted in their minds had Cuomo not made himself such a mysterious inaccessible figure. His behaviour is in Sharp contrast to the other democratic aspirants including the Early front runner former sen. Gary Hart of Colo Rado. Han had a Well earned reputation among his Senate colleagues As a Toner but he is or. Congeniality compared to Cuomo. In tils new role As an insider an presumed favorite. Hart is maintaining a Lively correspondence with grass roots activists personally enlist ing skilled Young veterans of 1984 and 1986 campaigns in his organization and even courting some of the old bulls of the party whose counsel and support he disdained to seek during his lint race in 1984. To All the criticisms that Cuomo has isolated him self from the party he May seek to Lead next year his friends reply thai he has not yet made up his mind whether to run and has to do it his own  those lines might work if democrats were con Vinced that Cuomo is the Only one with whom they have a Chance of winning in 1988. But As president Reagan s troubles grow so too does democratic optimism. And with it grows the inclination As one Mem Ber of the returning Congress put it to find ourselves someone most of us feel comfortable with whether or not he s our first Choice and get behind him and help him  since Cuomo bunt upon the National scene with his keynote speech Al the san Francisco convention in 1984, he has done Little to make democrats outside new York feel comfortable Wilh him. He has no come to Tail on them and the stories they have heard about him in new York have emphasized worrisome features of his personality his contentiousness his sensitivity to criticism the parochialism and closed Ness of his inner Circle. Cuomo has a tendency to translate this concern into a reflection of his ethnicity the supposed Bias against anyone who has too Many vowels end  the problem is not his name. The Democrat can readily learn it. But they will not Wasle their Lime Archance trying to decipher an Enigma. 41 Wiit Nylon poll Fri attn group