European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - May 25, 1987, Darmstadt, Hesse Page 10 the stars and strikes monday May 25,1987 columns Tom Wicker brokered democratic convention possible for the last year or two audiences every where could be startled by the prediction that the re publicans and democrats together would put Forward at least 15 presidential candidates for 1988. That seemed an improbable proliferation but suddenly the democrats look As if they May do in by themselves. Is Ihal evidence thai plenty of Rood men no women have declared so far Are available or does in suggest thai presidential politics has been lowered to a level where anyone can run qualified or not a Halver he answer the democrats plethora of candidacies appears on paper at least to be moving them closer to a contested and brokered convention. If so the Prospect raises some interesting questions who will be the convention s broken and who will they broker among already seven candidates have declared themselves Bruce Babbili of Arizona Joseph Biden of Delaware Jesse Jackson and Paul Simon of Illinois Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts Richard Gephardt of Missouri and Albert Gore of Tennessee. Two sitting governors Bill Clinton of Arkansas and Richard Celeste of Ohio Are All but sure to announce their candidacies soon. Intense Public pressures to run will continue to mount on three leading democrats Sam Nunn of Georgia who says he might Mario Cuomo of new York who says he won1 and Bill Bradley of new Jersey who says he s not ready to be president. Three More democrats Are reported to be contemplating favorite son candidacies thai All bul for gotten device that might give them seats Al the brokers table in a contested convention. They Are Wendell Ford of Kentucky David Boren of Oklahoma and Cov. Rudy Perpich of Minnesota. If these three actually try to keep control of their state delegations in that fashion they might Well be followed by other favorite sons sensing an Opportunity to swing More weight at the convention in Atlanta next summer. Even one retread from 1984, Ernest boiling of South Carolina has been making candidate noises again. There s not much Point in a favorite son Effort to control a stale delegation if there Are Only one or two heavyweight National candidates actually seeking the nomination. One or both would be Likely to Roll right Over some local Leader in a primary or caucus and Emba Misi him on his Home turf. But with the 1988 democratic race already Balka died among so Many candidates and dominated by William Safire ins the. Jackson wifi a Dukakis Mik 1 Biden with a abbr of ask flown inn to cleanup the remaining Gore no one favorite son candidacies May look More prom Ising. The Chance to win Al Home or to keep the state closed to outsiders is improved the pleasant distinction of having one s name placed in nomination is advanced and the Opportunity to shop a state delegation around among the real contenders looks As if in May be real. That Opportunity will look even belter in the Likely event that Public pressures push at least one among the three holdouts Cuomo Bradley and Nunn into the race. Nunn seems the Best bet he is achieving rising Public acclaim from his opposition to the administration on Security issues and valuable television exposure from the congressional hearings on the Iran Contra affair. Cuomo continues to say no no a thousand limes no but looks As if he s enjoying the Public and press clamor for him to no. Bradley has made absolutely no delectable move toward a candidacy t Hough he May be gelling ready to drop his support of the Nic Arapian contras Proba Bly a necessary preliminary if he were to run. But suppose none of the three enter or Only one would it be possible still for a contested convention in which no announced candidate had won a majority of the delegates to turn to a Leader say Cuomo who had not fought it out in the primaries or since Man of the brokers would be the candidates who had won delegates in state primaries and caucuses would the brokerage be limited Only to them anything is possible in an open convention but the Best bet is that the bar gainers would Settle on a candidate who had paid his dues in Iowa and new Hampshire on super tuesday and Over the rest of the Long grind. Fans of Cuomo Bradley or Nunn May believe their Man could skip the preliminaries and Sliff take the prize in a smoke filled room Al Atlanta but better they should keep pressure on him to enter the race from the Start. Naw to k Timm nuw4 so vice review suggests Casey initiated Iran arms Deal when intelligence profession als want to figure out what went wrong they Convene what they Call the murder these second Guesser re Nam Ine estimates in the Light of subsequent events. Its review which can reveal anything from mistaken motivation to moles is called walking Back the be us apply that technique to the operation that brought ruination to the Sec Ond Ronald Reagan term. Perhaps it will cast Light on the Central question what caused a president who came to office on a wave of american revulsion at weakness shown to hostage taken to Trade arms for hostages we have been told it All began in May 198 with a visit to Israel by Michael Ledeen a staff consultant to Robert Mcfarlane at the National Security Council to discuss intelligence sharing on Iran. Al that meeting israeli prime minister Shimon Peres sought approval for a ship ment of arms to Iran. Mcfarlane supposedly for purely strategic motives then asked the Cia to develop the plan that became the basis for the opening to i Don t buy that. My theory is that a human element involving a More powerful player was at the Root of the affair. On March 16, 1984, the Cia station chief in Beirut William Buckley was kid napped by iranian terrorists. We know that the a pcs it. Col. Oliver North promptly asked the Texas millionaire h. Ross Perot to provide $2 million in Ransom. Al the same time North reportedly pre pared a National Security decision directive signed by president Reagan in Early april setting up a commando Rescue mis Sion headed by Richard Accord. Reagan has forgotten the first plan but remembers the second we have never stopped to ask Why North he had no official connection to the captured Cia Man. It is far More Likely Ihal in both the private ran som Effort and the proposed official res Cue Mission North was acting at the be hell of his Mentor William j Casey the director of inc Cia. Casey was by this time using North As his operational Man at the Csc the Ransom offer was rejected and the Rescue Mission was deemed impossible. During the year that followed Casey received reports of the Lor Turc of his a no which led to the likelihood of the com Promise of Many other agents through out the Middle East and in Iran. We do not now know of other efforts made by the director to gel his Beirut station chief out of the torturers hands but that such efforts look place can be assumed. I assume this because Casey was that sort of spymaster. During world War ii. He Send his Oss agents behind nazi lines and suffered personally when they were caught. He once told me of a woman agent captured by the Gestapo her torturers sent Back pictures to american intelligence which caused the Young Casey great anguish. Her death under torture was an episode he never forgot or for gave by april 1985 Buckley was near death and the diplomatic activity was undertaken by Mcfarlane s Csc. On sept. 11, the iranians through the israelis asked Mcfarlane to name one hostage for release it should not be sur prising that the name chosen was Casey s Man blk key. But on june 3, according to a fellow hostage Buckley had died we did not learn of this until mid october when islamic holy War released a photo graph of the shrouded Corpse. By then the cancer afflicted Casey was deeply into his Iran opening which he ran through the Csc in conjunction with his Contra support. Grand strategy grew from the save Buckley seed Only Casey and not some apparatchiks or Cowboy could have enlisted vice president George Bush and chief of staff Don Regan and persuaded the president Over the combined opposition of Secretary of stale George a Bull and defense Secretary Caspar Weinberg or. In walking Back inc Cal to seek the genesis do we exaggerate the human element consider the outburst toward the end of Mcfarlane s testimony when he was pressed on Why Congress had not been notified of Iran dealings. That conflicted Man after Days of lightly containing his emotions cracked and cried on thai very Point terrorists know that whenever they commit terror ism against Israel something somehow somewhere is going to happen. You can be goddamn sure if any israeli is caught he s going to have his government going after the people who did in thai confirms my suspicion that Ca sey s passion to free his station chief started the Reagan administration Down the Road of appeasement. 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