European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - August 8, 1987, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 columns the stars and stripes saturday August 8. 19b7 Tom Wicker Reagan not serious in offer to sandinista if Ronald Reagan is serious about his new peace plan for Nicara Gua he must think its sandinista govern ment can be intimidated into giving up its Independence its Power and its marxist world View. If As is More Likely Reagan s plan i just a ploy to win Voles for renewed Mili tary Aid 10 the Cia organized and Cia controlled contras in Nicaragua a con Gress burned once Loo often should be Able to set right through it either Way As Lyndon Johnson used to say of to Sig propositions that dog won t  the plan drafted for the administration by a Democrat Jim Wright the House speaker Calls for an immediate cease fire followed by the cessation of Aid to either Side from the ., cub and the soviet Union and he acceptance of democratic reforms by the Sandin Isias before sept 30. A regional settlement and a National reconciliation plan for Nicaragua then would be worked out by the  And the Central american governments. Wright apparently regards this As something like a last Chance for a peace Ful settlement. But there Are Good Rea sons for other members of Congress to James j. Kilpatrick suspect that the White House adopted the plan As a vote getting device be Lieving that is that if the sandinista Don t accept. Congress would be More Likely to approve renewed Aid to the contras some members will not have forgot ten however that Reagan has been at least As reluctant a negotiator As anyone in Managua. He found reason to reject various peace plans put Forward by the Concadora nations and he also rejected a Costa rican proposal somewhat Simi Lar to Wright s. Members also will realize As sen. Bumpers of Arkansas has pointed out that it s unrealistic to believe that such a complicated High stakes scheme could be negotiated before sept. 30 and thai this Early deadline Means also that he administration would not have to sacrifice much Aid to the contras before Hen. Nor will it be lost on anyone that the new proposal conveniently arrives just before the present program of con tra Aid expires. For such reasons the plan May not be As effective As the White House expects in swinging congressional votes to the contras although its diplomatic prospects certainly seem dim. The plan would require the sandinista to agree to reforms hey have rejected before an ultimately to accept politically the con tras who seek to overthrow their govern ment. Besides if the sandinista have established any single Point it is that they have not been intimidated either by  Support for the contras or by what they perceive As the threat of direct  Intervention. Just As the iranians have re fused to quake before american naval Power in the persian Gulf the Sandinia tas have made Clear their determination to defend the nicaraguan revolution against Reagan s determination to oust or radically change their regime. Thus the threat of renewed Aid to the contras after sept. 30 is unlikely to cause them to make the demanded re forms including the suspension of emergency Laws Ana Steps toward open elections when they have been unwilling to make them under the actual Mili tary pressures of the Reagan aided con tras. Even if the sandinista did meet this requirement the proposal Calls for the Post sept 30 National reconciliation plan to Grant the contras full political rights perhaps including entry into the government. By what measure of Mili tary Success or Tom in political acceptance for the contras should the Sandi nistas agree to such a self defeating proposition All this strongly suggests that the White House is not offering a serious new negotiating proposal but counts in Stead on a sandinista rejection to bolster Congre ional support for Aid to the con iras and even if Reagan genuinely wanted a negotiated settlement this prescription would be fatally hawed by his insistence on those democratic re  whatever his doctrine the United states has no historic or god Given mis Sion to bring democracy to other nations nor does such a purpose justify the Over throw of governments it does not like. . Security interests in Nicaragua Ait Only to prevent establishment of a soviet military base and or nicaraguan aggression against neighbor nations inter ests that could be served without he con tras or the overthrow of he sandinista. As Long As Reagan s policy is to insist on both that dog won t Hunt either. Can Teuffer wrap up the meaty Trade Issue Clayton Yeutter the  Ambassador for Trade is a big balding Man with he tet a make a Deal smile of a Good truck Salesman. He will need All his skills to gel an acceptable Trade Bill out of Congress but like any Good Salesman he s optimistic. It can be done he says. Then he adds but it won t be  indeed it won t. The House of representatives passed its version of a Trade Bill on april30. The Vole was 290-137, with 43 republicans joining 247 democrats to create a bloc exactly Large enough if everyone held fast to override presidential veto. The Senate came along with its version on july 21 with a vote of l-27. Again if he 71 senators should stick together a veto could be overturned. The conflicting Bills now go to a conference committee that promises to be the Granddaddy of All such committees. Each of the Bills runs to a thousand pages. It is Likely that not even the principal sponsors understand All of the provi Sions that have been larded into the meat of the Issue. The Senate alone added 120 Amend ments on he floor. This much is Clear. Weuker says both Bills contain much that is bad and some that Osgood. If the Good parts Are preserved in Confer ence and the bad parts Are dropped the presi Dent willingly will sign the measure. On the other hand if Congress sends the president a Bill dominated by he bad parti no Way Yeutter has specifically in mind the original Gephardt amendment in the House. This i protectionism in its most virulent form. It would lie president Reagan and his successor in a straitjacket. It flies in the face of the inter National general agreement on tariffs and Trade Gatt. It would positively invite retaliation by such trading partners As Japan South Korea and Taiwan. Under the Cephard proposal Japan could be required to reduce its Trade imbalance with the United Stiles by 10 percent a year. Suppose his excess of exports Over imports amounted to j60 billion in a critical year. A reduction of j6 billion would have to be made. But under att Yeutter explains Japan automatically would have the right to enforce an equivalent reduction in  Imports. We could then say goodbye to $6 billion Worth of Trade in  Of Ait lob acro Semi conductors and Otherna Duesi. Say Yeutter. We would act club  lets 60, Kip a it Vav a Senate version of Gephardt is not All that bad it s just almost As  the vice in both ver Sions is that they drastically limit the discretionary Power of a president to Cope with unfair Trade practices. Worse even than the Gephardt amendment in Reutler s View is Section 201 of the Senate Bill. It would compel a president to Succour ailing Domestic industries that Are suffering not from unfair com petition but from fair Competition from abroad. The footwear Industry is a prime example. Is. Manufacturers Are being whipped in he Market place because foreign made shoes Are better buys. But Section 201, Willy Nilly would Grant the Indus try protective tariffs and quotas Lor a period of years while it struggled for the unattainable goal of head to head Competition. Yeutter a a Long list of objections. Both Bills would require companies to give Advance notice before closing a Plant or laying off workers. The Senate Bill would apply to companies employing As few Ai 11 persons. The provisions would make it increasingly difficult for a manufacturer to close an inefficient Plant this would not improve International Competition at  Boih jills have Long and costly provisions for retraining workers displaced by the pressures of International Trade. Yeutter is sceptical. The concept is Fine in theory he says but such programs Don l do much in practice the president will accept a reasonable training provision be won t accept a budget Buster. Yeutter had nothing to say about repeal of the Windfall Tan on exr soil revenues. This is pc provision of sen. Joy to Bentsen of Texas it Proba Bly will stay in the Bill. Neither did Reutler com ment on a proposal o pay j264 million in Tariff rebates to a few major sugar refiners. The Kickback strikes most observer except for he sugar refiners at unconscionable but when you re wrangling Over grand issues of protectionism and world Trade a Little of up to he sugar boy May not greatly matter. The conference committee will report m october. The nation needs a Good Trade Bill. Don t hold your breath till we get one t apr to n b l trim of pm turn on Tea up in n ==--.j.1 a ss.1 i j i 4 Cal Tufts 0" put p 9 wet to h cd Ltd a or a lm1 Simm