European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - September 2, 1987, Darmstadt, Hesse                                10 the stars and stripes wednesday. September 2,1987 Tom Wicker support for contras slips to pre Ollie level unless you be been Reading the papers closely you May not have realized that after the  with it. Col. Oliver North and the contras passions have cooled and the end of the affair is at hand. A new York times lbs news poll taken in mid adjust disclosed he predictable news support for . Aid 10 the contras fighting in Nicaragua had dropped Back 10 33 percent after fluttering up to 40 percent immediately after North s televised testimony to Congress set hearts to throbbing. Forty nine percent of the respondents in the latest poll opposed Aid to the contras the 33 percent who approved it was about the same proportion of support ers found by the poll before North displayed his charms to the nation. Casual leaders also May have missed an evaluation of North by Alan a Fiers. The chief of the Cia s Cen trial american task Force. Firs knew the colonel All too Well he told congressional committees in private testimony i never knew colonel North to be an absolute liar but i never look anything he said at face value because knew that he was bombastic and embellished the record and threw curves Speed balls and spitball to gel what he wanted and i knew it and i knew it  other Central american news that did t quite make the front Page president Oscar Arias of Costa Rica the principal author of the peace plan now being debated in the Region and in Washington said he hoped the Reagan administration would not seek further Aid for the con iras until after nov. 7. That s when the plan is sup posed to take effect. Events Are in the hands of the Central american Snow Arias said. We should have a Chance we de serve that Chance until nov. 7." his Point of course was that if the Reagan administration keeps sending weapons and supplies tothe contras the sandinista regime in Nicaragua can hardly be expected to meet its part of the bargain major Steps toward the establishment of democracy. There were not big headlines either when vice president Bush the front runner Tor the Republican presidential nomination backed Down from his refusal to debate other Republican candidates on oct. 28. Bush said he d take part after All in a special Broad cast of William of Buckley s firing line program Simitar to one in which All democratic candidates appeared earlier this summer. The vice president said he David Broder Keret two have Jjo Nicke lies to give for my of entry had been refusing because the debate had been scheduled Loo Early other Republican hopefuls said he was trying to dissociate himself from them to enhance his status As front runner. Either Way his capitulation is unlikely to fatten Bush s slim reputation for bold Independence the centrist candidate who in 1980 accused Ronald Rea Gan of propagating voodoo economics one of the most prescient remarks any presidential candidate Ever made later became Reagan s acolyte. That and his ardent wooing of the right Wing have raised questions about what if anything he stands for. Nor have debates been Bush s bag. Reagan trounced him in new Hampshire in 1980 Geraldine Ferraro came out at least even with him in 1984, after which Bush Tost a Little face by claiming to have kicked a Little ass even one item of big news seems not to be attract ing much attention in the dog Days president Reagan s nomination of judge Robert bark for a scat on the supreme court. Politicians academics and the press including me have pictured the Bork Battle As one of the major crises of the Reagan years. But the Public does t seem to care perhaps because baseball Beach going and the like still preoccupy summertime  Washington Post Abc news Mil found recently that 55 percent of respondents had not even heard of he Bork nomination. A new York times lbs Newt poll in july disclosed that 63 percent knew too Little about Bork to have an opinion pro or con. When alerted however americans Are Solitt or than some people think. One poll taker Harrison Hickman probed focus groups in Alabama an Pennsylvania and Learned that the members saw the nomination struggle for exactly what it is a partisan matter with mostly political motivations on both sides n9w v a a tints Union endorsement delay alters demo race rare is the deed that confounds the cynics and at the same time makes sense. The improbable proposition of this column is that the Fucio . Big labor May Well have demonstrated both its sincerity and its shrewdness in deciding to postpone any endorsement in the 1988 presidential race. Union leaders regularly rank even lower than journalists in polls of Public Trust it was no great feat for critics of Lane Kirkland and his Brethren in the federation leadership to sell the notion that the 1984 endorsement of Waller f. Mandate was dictated by the Union  Mondale had been Tabor s Loyal ally from his first Days in Minnesota politics. It would have been rank ingratitude for the Al Cio to deny him its support. Nonetheless he never escaped the Spe Cial interest candidate tag and labor never persuaded most people there was anything very democratic about its endorsement vote. Thus when Kirkland announced Early this year that the Al Cio would canvass its members sentiments and endorse a 1988 hopeful if there is a consensus the statement was greeted with knowing nods and winks. The smart Guys figured Kirkland and the leaders of the six or eight biggest and most politically Active affiliated unions would Sil Down and decide who icy wanted and that would be it. Wrong. Instead the unions flooded their local leaders and members with biographies voting records and videotapes of All the candidates including the re publicans and then polled them repeat edly on their preferences. The answer came Back that the membership was All Over the lot with Only George Bush and Jesse Jackson breaking into double dig its. There is no consensus within our ranks at the local or National level Kirk and announced. No consensus no endorsement. As simple As that. Except it int. The deferral of the Al Cio endorsement changes both the perception and the reality of the democratic contest. The candidates first test now is to win no the endorse ment of interest groups but the support of voters in the Early caucuses and Pri Maries. That change was one of the ear lies and most important objectives announced by democratic National chairman Paul g. Kirk when he took Over after the 1984 Reagan landslide. When Kirk first asked labor teacher and other interest groups to forgo or Deby their endorsements in 1988, they told him to mind his own business. He has. Bui circumstances have yielded the result he wished and he is smart enough not to gloat. Also not gloating but privately rejoicing Are the candidates who were unlikely to get the Al Cio nod Bruce Babbitt Jesse Jackson Albert Gore or. It Levels the playing Field said Robert j. Cefe a longtime democratic operative wit close lies to labor. It also frees Candi dates to exploit their alliances with particular unions in particular places Keefe noted. Thai May help Jackson in some Urban areas. It will Aid Michael Dukakis Paul Simon and Joe Biden in and around their Home Stales of Massachusetts Illi Nois and Delaware. But the biggest Early beneficiary could be Richard Gephardt who has worked tirelessly to win unionists support in Iowa sue of the first caucuses. He no knows those labor people Ore free As individuals to work for him and become his delegates under the recommended rules no Union is supposed to make an official candidate endorsement until the Al Cio does but unions can help Union members become delegates. It s a thin line and Paul Jensen who was Mon Dale s Liaison with Tabor in 1984, thinks the unions will have to blur it further i they Are going to be at All effective. No candidate is going to state labor delegates unless the Union is working for him Jensen said. Everyone  Jensen who is now counselling Dukakis is also of the View thai Kirk land and co. Will have to discover the missing consensus and make an endorse ment by mid january at he latest Orris becoming bit players in he 1988 nomination drama. But that is not Likely. Indications Are that Kirkland sees mid february right after Iowa and new Hampshire have voted As the Best possible time for labor to deliver its Blessing its Dollar and its Field organization to someone who has survived the Early tests. My guess said Keefe is that Iowa and new Hampshire will winnow the Field and make one or two people the favourites for super tuesday,1 March 8, when simultaneous primaries and caucuses Are held in 20 states 14 of them in the South labor May be in a position to cements base under the Guy that s flying High after new Hampshire pc Csc said. If labor comes in with an endorsement the Day after new Hampshire that could just about put him  it would be quite something if Kirk land by playing straight turns out 10 be that shrewd. What would the cynics say Ihnn wish Nylon poll w we Ioup