European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - October 11, 1987, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Pal Robertine tit taking tit Tuple rom in Manchester. N, maintained hit candidacy would not be affected by Dos cloture Robt ton and til wife were married More than five mantra Fher the Dale that they publicly celebrate at the tar Wydr Jung Day and that their lint child wat bom 10 week Attr they were married. The gop s orderly races a photo by Dave ditto Bush Al Brussels pros conference Early tilt month.  of seem Toh gives by . Dion near. New York times Hile the democratic presidential Campaign has dissolved into grim uncertainly the Republican contest like the party i Solf is considerably More orderly. Trie cleanly of the Republican race comes in two parts. First vice president George bus i and sen Bob Dole have clearly emerged in the eyes of parly officials and in i he polls As dominant Over their competitors. For the moment at least they Are the superpowers of Republican politics. Second. Pat Robertson Iho former television preacher who is now a full time politician is threatening to eliminate All the others in the race. The campaigns of rep Jack f. Kemp of new Vork and former gov Pete Dupont of Delaware once highly promising Are in grave jeopardy As even some of their supporters concede. And Alexander u. Haig jr., the former Secretary of state has yet to find a message that would let him Surprise his detractors in the parly and the press. Suppo leis of Kemp Dupont and Kaig Are Quick to Point Oul that the october line on presidential nominating politics has not always been reliable. To the Lall of 1983. They note the conventional Wisdom hold that the democratic presidential contest Page 16 the stars and stripes was Between Waller f. Mondale and sen. John Glenn of Ohio. Bui when the real voting started Glenn went nowhere and Gary Harl. Not much noticed in the All. Emerged As the challenger to Mondale. Those in the Back of the Republican pack imagine themselves As this year s Gary Hart the 1984 version of course and insist that either Dole or Bush will alter and that they will Rise to Challenge the survivor. But for the moment their path is blocked by Robertson who has turned Small victories in preliminary organizing contests into Large Waves of publicity. Last month he beat both Bush and Dole in a Straw pail in Iowa. Then a Lew Days later in coalition with Kemp s backers. Robertson beat Bush in a procedural lest in the Republican state committee in Michigan. The vote was important because it kept a Large number of potential Bush supporters out of Michigan s complicated Delegate selection process. The result is Hal Bush could wind up in third place next january when Michigan delegates to the Republican National convention Are allowed Robertson s Contention is that he can mobilize devout previously apolitical christians to vote in Republican caucuses and primaries. Bui his competitors insist that the Iowa and Michigan victories will not mean much net year. There s no  said Roger Stone a sunday october 11,1987 consultant to Kemp. Hinl Rob Crlson brings new people Inlo Iho co loot who Volo Lor him and so. In a Small process to can do Well but there s a limit to How much he can got when Iho suffrage goes up to 150.000, As in Iho Iowa caucuses " perhaps Bui Robertson is clearly Banc Lilloyd from the National publicity that surrounded his Early successes. A recent poll of 2,292 Souphom republicans conducted f or the Atlanta journal and Constitution by Iho Roper organization brought some bad now for the Bollom of the Republican pack. Ii showed Bush tar ahead with 46 percent followed by Dole at 19 percent and Robertson in third at 10 percent. Trailing were Komp at 7 percent Haig at 6 percent and Dupont Al 2 percent. Stone was Quick to Point out that Robertson s Lead Over Kemp was close to the poll s margin of sampling error iwo percentage Points. Bui All summer Long Iho Kemp Campaign had been touting Kemp s solid third place position in National polls As a sign thai their candidate was moving into serious Contention. Now Kemp s june to August run looks to have been As fragile As summer love. For Bush the last couple of months have brought both Good news and bad. The bad nows Lay in his defeats in Iowa and Michigan and in his Gaff in Europe in which he seemed to compare soviet workers favourably to those in Doh Oil the Gaffe was undoubtedly bad news. But by losing in Iowa and Michigan Bush seems to have changed Tho How of the Republican contest in a Way that might turn to his favor by having been knocked Down a Peg Bush instead of running against himself is now in a real contest with Dole. The dynamic of the race before was will George Bush collapse end Bush could t win that race said Eddie Mahe an Independent Republican consultant. If it s a straight contest with Dole Bush can actually win. So Bush ends up being helped by Dolo gaining  the Bush people Are helping this View along touting Dole As the front runner in Iowa and suggesting thai if Dole loses Iowa he is out of the contest. Stilt. Bush s managers Are not about to Sec their Man lose any More Public Battles. Lee Atwater Bush s Campaign manager has sent several platoons into Florida and has spent Lime Shore him sell to make sure the vice president wins a Straw poll Al a parly meeting in november. If Bush loses that vote it will be a real loss his aides will not be Able to offer the nonchalance defense that they tried in Iowa to say they were taken by Surprise. Dole s backers in the meantime Are pleased with he Way things Are developing. David Keene a consultant to Dole said he is quite Happy Hal Dole s foes have been deriding the Senate minority Leader s Campaign organization All year Long it makes Small organizational coups such As Dale s second place finishing ahead of Bush in that Iowa Straw poll look All thai much More significant. Dote has also been quite conciliatory toward Robertson watching with what must be considerable satisfaction As supporters of Bush and Robertson say the most awful things about each other particularly in Michigan. If Robertson should Ever hold the balance of Power in the Republican contest Bush could have a very hard Tima coaxing Robertson into the Bush cause. Haig Campaign aides meanwhile insist Hal those who ignore him will be surprised next year. They note Hal he is running third behind Bush and Dole in several state polls. Haig argues thai at a time when the nation is looking for real expertise especially in foreign policy who could to better than a Lormer White House chief of staff and supreme Allied commander in Europe when they took Over to the seemingly straightforward Republican race ailing democrats might get even More depressed than they Are already but the Republican race May yet have some Good news in store for the democrats. First the second tier Republican candidates Are not about to accept elimination from the contest quietly. Kemp s forces say they will pour Money into Iowa for television commercials attacking Bush on sufi divisive questions As social Security taxes and abortion. And then there is Robertson himself. Despite his Strong showings in test votes he still has extremely High negative ratings in he polls. Thus the better Robertson docs he More he is Likely to scare voters who Are moderate on social issues Inlo the arms of the democrats Robertson s presence in the contest May Yel prove providential for the democratic parly in the democrats Only slay Oul of Tho news enough to let me cameras focus on him