European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - October 25, 1987, Darmstadt, Hesse Page 10 columns the stars and stripes sunday october 25,1987 George will Kirkpatrick should endorse Dole for president Jeane Kirkpatrick splendid statesman nov ice politician should heed the words of Douglas Mac Ashur great general Busy presidential candidate who said most military disasters can be explained in two words too too Lale in perceiving too late in preparing for challenges. At this is being written Kirkpatrick is in the final stages of considering a tardy entry Iota the Republican nomination scramble. That scramble has been under Way for several years and May be willed in fewer than 140 Days an March a super by running now Kirkpatrick probably would diminish herself and might contribute to an outcome she does not desire the nomination of George Bush. Diminution would be the result of candidacy thai would allow her to be a Brief Sparkler before subsiding to the role of just another candidate with single digit support. A Jerry built Campaign would suggest a Streak of unserious Ness. If she runs she will learn abruptly something Learned last summer by a Man with years of Republican politicking to draw upon. The candidacy of Paul Laxdall Sank last sum Mer when he discovered that by waiting until last Spring to gel buy he had started Loo late Loo late to recruit key activists too Lale to shake the Money tree some Laxdall supporters have urged Kirkpatrick to run. They especially should know better. For several years Kirkpatrick when encouraged to run demurred citing among other things her Friend ship with Jack Kemp. Kirkpatrick knew what is still True Many of her votes would come at Kemp s expense. She said she could not consider running unless a became Clear thai Kemp s candidacy was failing. The insoluble problem was that by the time it might be come Clear that Kemp was failing it would be too late for her to succeed. It is not yet Clear that Kemp s strategy cannot work to depends on doing Well in new Hampshire while either Bush or Dole falters. The Only conceivable Kirkpatrick strategy would be to ski Iowa do Well in new Hampshire then improvise frantically. But in new Hampshire she would cannibalize Kemp s support. And even if she did Well she would have just three weeks to raise the Nec Essary Money $4 million minimum and do the innumerable other things necessary for competitiveness on super tuesday. Bush is off to a staggering Start and Dole is on a Roll. Dote is now raising Money As fast As Bush and has acquired two new allies who Are important subs anti vely and symbolically. His new Campaign chairman is Bill Brock who As gop chairman from 1977 through the 1980 election did More than anyone besides Rea William Buckley Gan to make possible the election of Reagan. Richard Wichlin. Who has been Reagan s pollster for More than 20 years and had joined Laxdall is joining Dole. Furthermore to the extent that the unpleasantness on Wall Street tarnishes reaganomics. It tarnishes Bush s association with reaganomics. To the same extent it enhances Dole s stature As the candidate who has most consistently treated the deficit As a problem that in Dole s recent words will not go away or grow away. Bush wants developments concerning other Candi dates to delay As Long As possible the Day when he is one on one with any opponent particular / dote. By prolonging the confusion on the conservative Side a Kirkpatrick candidacy would assist the candidacy of Bush the Man least Likely to Lake her As a running male or include her in an important position in his administration. She and he Are not two souls with but a single thought two Beans that beat As one. In fact if Kirkpatrick has a serious politician s interest in using Power to shape events she can do so spectacularly anytime Between now and when the Vot ing starts in Iowa. After that any endorsement of anyone by anyone will be of marginal importance were she to endorse Dole now she would Confer upon him an imprimatur invaluable in the continuing com petition for the Beans and minds of conservatives. And she would assist the Man whose admiration for her was made Manifest when in suggesting improvements for the Arias Central american peace plan he Drew heavily on her advice. One suggested reason for running refutes itself. She would be the first woman candidate who would Noi be a thought of As a woman candidate the Tim whose ideas would be everything her chromosomes irrelevant. But to run for that reason would transform her into someone trading on an irrelevancy. Stocks de no precursor of another depression so the Stock Market goes to hell what do you do pint you eliminate jumping out of the window which is reactionary. Then you mull Over your resources Foremost of which in my Case is professor Milton Friedman who will answer my Telephone Call. He is after All a Nobel prize Winner the most celebrated living economist in the world and if you catch him with his Mouth open. You can bet that an opinion has just come out of it. If you catch him with his Mouth dosed you can bet that he has just bitten an opinion in two. And he is my beloved Friend. How Are you Milton we re Fine How Are you i was wondering whether you could do me a favor. 1 would like 900 words for National review on the mar Ket breakdown. We would need it by thursday Why not i have never written an economic analysis tailored to the Market and i m not going to Start doing that ?" because the behaviour of the Market does t Cone Kite in any significant Way with the behaviour of the Economy. It s a mistake to imply that it does and that s what would be inferred if wrote about Well Why Don t you write precisely on that theme and it would t be cheating would it if you were to suggest what the investor might expect from the mar Ket Given the condition of the Economy yes it would 1 would be in the business of vetting the Market and i just told you i m not going to do that. 1 make my own decisions about the Market but not for Public instruction. 1 sold All my stocks during the you did i did. And i m going Back into the Market Tomor Row. Bulls can make Money and bears can make Money but hogs can t make Money. The hog is the Man who insists on wailing until the Stock Market is at Rock Bottom. He will be left , it seems to me you be already said something interesting right the Only thing you can say about the Market is what . Morgan said about it. He was asked and said the Market will fluctuate but this has got to be More than fluctuation does t it the talk is of another 1929 nonsense. I have been predicting for quite a while a recession in the next six to nine months but that s a Long Way from a depression. Remember that the Economy this time around has not peaked. In 1929, the Economy had peaked in August. So that the two events Are not comparable in the most important , do you go along with the proposition that there Are safeguards built into the system that would prevent a depression on a 1929 scale in 1954, t delivered a lecture in Sweden under the title Why the american Economy is depression proof i have seen no reason since then and see none now to change that your position All along has been that even the great depression was avoidable Correct even with out the Federal Deposit insurance corp., and the Sec and social Security etc.?""yes. The Economy from August 1929 to the end of 1930 was More severe than during the first year of most recessions but if an upturn had come shortly after the episode would have been classified As � Gar Den variety recession. It was converted into the great depression by the collapse of the financial system to successive Waves. In la 1932 and 1.933. The Stock Market played no significant role in this collapse. The argument that the 1929 Market crash produced the 1931-33 economic contraction is prime example of Post hoc Ergo proper hoc you re saying that it could All have been avoided yes. The financial collapse of 1931-33 need not have occurred and would have been avoided if the fed had never been established or if it had behaved differently. The fed s inept Perfo Manre led to changes in the financial system that make a similar financial col lapse highly Well that s Good news in t it yes that s Good still Don t see Why you won t write 900 words on just what you be said for National you be got 900 words in what i be just Point. Thanks a Tot Milton and Good Good sight.
