European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - November 13, 1987, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 columns the stars and stripes Friday november 13,1987 George will in spite of setbacks Reagan s Luck is holding so thick has been the marijuana smoke and so myopic is Washington about president Reagan s recent misadventures people have not noticed the extent 10 which the lame Duck is limping across a political land scape he has shaped to h is liking. Furthermore proof that Reagan s Reservoir of Luck has no run dry is this oct. 19, Black monday May help economic expansion continue past the 1988 elec Tion. Republicans May remember it As glittering Mon Day. The Stock Market plunge was caused in part by a surge in interest Rales. The surge was driven in part by inflationary expectations. They were washed away at least for the moment on oct. 19. And the washing made possible a freshet of Money creation by the fed. Capitalism and therefore civilization As we know it depends on the annual Christmas shopping Binge now beginning. The Stock Market has not Cyl had a significant depressing effect on consumer spending on which two thirds of economic activity depends. In the Auto motive sector anxieties produced by Wall Street combined with the decline of the Dollar and interest rates have primarily Hurt expensive foreign imports. Pup pies previously upwardly Mobile persons arc thinking about the unthinkable driving a Domestic car. The sobriety induced by the Slook Maricl Shock will help Reagan resist a protectionist Trade Bill and has put even social Security on the Agenda at least for now in deficit reduction negotiations. Here is a measure of the rightward Ratchet of Floc Reagan years on the eve of an election Congress has at least considered two difficult choices. One is Chi minus two limiting Cost of living increases to two percentage Points less than the in crease in the consumer Price Index an even better idea is two years two  the policy regarding Colas for social Security and military and other pen Sions and All Federal pay increases would be for two Yean everyone gets 2 percent but Only that. Every one s sacrifice would be a slightly smaller increase. Assuming economic growth of 2.s to 2.8 percent an optimistic but not unreasonable Assumption Rea Gan could leave office with a budget deficit below 1100 billion although he supposedly has surrendered to de mands for a tax increase and supposedly has been reduced to a Spectator s role things seem to be going essentially Reagan s Way. For seven Yean it has been important to his Agenda to demonstrate that this democracy has the capacity to curtail the growth of entitlements. It is now at least possible to believe that America s representative institutions can put enough fingerprints on the pruning shears to spread the Politi Cal risk thereby diminishing it. Everyone knows two words usually followed As in this Case by a falsehood that Reagan so hates taxes that no tax increases can occur on his watch. But we Are now watching the fourth Congress of this decade do what the first three did enact lax increases. This May seem to be a sign of Reagan s weakness a Retreat from Reagan ism but not when considered in context. On the eve or his eighth year in office Reagan and Congress Are bickering about marginal differences in proposals that Are mixtures of tax increases user fees spending cuts and Sale of Federal assets. The out come is Uncertain but the tone Structure and sub stance of the negotiations reflect the rightward ill of Washington s playing Field. The negotiations take place beneath the Era rom Rudman sword which can inflict an automatic s23 billion slice on spending. Forget for the moment that the cuts would be calculated from a bogus Baseline s23 billion off. But Only after adding 4.2 percent to everything the outcome of the negotiations Gramm Rudman or some agreement on Gramm Rud Man avoidance probably will be Rea Anile in this limited but real sense government outlays will be reduced More than tax revenues will be increased. Congress May flinch from a bold package Rea Gan should not. His reluctance to strike a Deal suggest that he docs not recognize How much he has already won in the decade s Domestic debate. He has lost much of his ability to direct the How of events but for the moment the River of history is running in a Channel he did much to dig. L we ill. Group William Safire to me ingenuity solving the two China problem Taipei Taiwan the chinese have taught us that not every problem in diplomacy has to be solved in a hurry. Sixteen years ago the intractable Taiwan Issue was finessed when Richard Nixon and Henry Kissin Ger came up with the idea of agreeing with the govern ments on the Island and on the Mainland that there could be Only one China " ultimately we chose to Deal with the reality of Thi government of a billion chinese in Beijing but we l Ier look care to set up an informal arrangement of i Inse and Trade with the 19 million chinese on Taiwan. Time and ingenuity a worked wonders on the relationship Between the Mainland cars and the Island ers. Chiang Kai Shek s son. Now 77, recognised that the Prosperity created by in l enter primers on Taiwan Cre ated a Middle class will. The capacity to handle More political Freedom. He saw too a Chance to differentiate his government from the authoritarian regime on the Mainland and he must have Felt the human rights heat from his key ally the United states. President Chiang Ching Kuo also figured out the Best Way to Stop the sentiment for Independence from building on the part of native taiwanese who have been governed by the 2 million Kuomintang for the last 40 years. De Facto Independence is Fine that s what the taiwanese have now but any official move toward separatism might trigger military action by Beijing which finds intolerable the permanent loss of any of us outlying regions. So Long As Taipei maintains the fic Tion of claiming to represent the real China Beijing can live with or status quo. In the eyes of the peo ple s Republic the errant sister still in the family will one Day come Home. The anti separatist Kuomintang moved toward a Freer society this year. Martial Law was at Long last ended and an embryonic opposition party is making raucous noises. I dropped in on the democratic progressive party meeting As a Resolution was passed Call ing for the people s right to speak up for Independence without fear of arrest. This was a Compromise had radicals tried to make Independence the party s official purpose the agitation could have caused the govern ment to Call of democracy. I suppose that was Why one Delegate broke his chair Over the head of a dissenter. Look civil Liberty Here Ain t perfect but in is taking Root. At year s end press restrictions Are Likely to be lifted and a cantankerous Media will Bloom. The Les son to the chinese on the Mainland will be Clear free Enterprise leads to Prosperity which Beijing wants and that in turn leads to political Freedom which Beij ing resists. Here then is the Kuomintang party whose octogenarian members still weigh Down the legislative Branch showing the world the huge Gap opening Between systems. In so doing Taipei separates itself further from the Mainland s form of government. In also attracts Many taiwanese supporters who would otherwise agitate for Independence. Sounds Subtle but that s Only the half of in. Taipei knows that Beijing views the spread of personal free Dom with alarm and Taipei fears that talk of Independence by opposition parties might be used As a Provo cation. Therefore a gesture of accommodation Tju called for one that would signal to the Mainland hut Taipei shares its dream of unification. The three no a no Contact no negotiation no Compromise have just been amended to 2 a no a thousands of the old soldiers who came Over with the retreating Chiang Kai Shek want to go Home for a final visit or to die where they were born. As a humanitarian gesture Taipei will permit family  everyone Here knows that it is the beginning of con tact on a grand scale. Academics want to lecture in Shanghai opera singers want to hit the High note in Beijing and businessmen want to Cut put the Middle men of Singapore and do business directly with the Mainland. Such contacts have Long been sought by Beijing and Are seen there As evidence Hal the erring sister won t do anything drastic. This combination of becoming More kissable while becoming less digestible is the new strategy of the country that rightly Calls itself free China. That Subtle diplomacy supported by defense Supply lie to the United states should buy its increasingly free citizens another generation of de Facto Independence and by then who knows what will happen on the main land. Nothing has been tidily resolved and nobody has won or lost meanwhile nearly 10 million people with warm feelings toward America Are gaining More free Dom every Day. Clever is far too mild a term for these chinese no Van tit tit Newl solve Al