European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - January 24, 1988, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 20 the stars and stripes sunday january 24,1986 investor s guide justness news Doyle loom and doom by Bill Doyle q. We lure it finished Reading he Book. The great to Revlon or 1990," by Ravi Bain. We real Ono one can predict the future bul in Jour opinion does grail it pros inn loom a. You re Correct about no one Bei Gable 10 pre dict the future. Thai s what make the Best sell ing status of Daira s Book so  again horror Moy is draw big  Lime a lome results in a Natch of mail Louhis Comer As Batra s has lately i m reminded of my grandmother who lived to be 97 and who always listened to the Witch s  thai radio program and stories from her childhood i county Sciford grandma could scare the Becj Abbors out of the Kidskin the House. But we knew it was All in  people seem to be taking Batra s babbling seriously the review of that Book i Forbes Magazine put things in the right prospective by saying a Ira s baffle gab is awful appalling terrible and has no redeeming features whatever. If you want cycles Slick to wheel of  the Forbes article notes tha Batra says his theory of cycles on which his prediction of a 1990depression is based is derived from the work of one Prabha Tranjan Sarkar. Forbes also dutifully reports,"p.r. Sarkar is the Lender of a hindu cult called Ananda  to press reports he was sentenced in i976 to life imprison ment in connection with the Mur Der of six disciples although his conviction was  overturned. The group has also been accused of arson child abduction homosexuality hijacking and  do i think a Garcal depression looms in the future i can l say for sure. 1 know and everyone Els should know we will have recessions from Lime to time. But eve without consulting a Crystal Ball or a cobra rising from a Wicker Bas Ket i la go far enough out on the limb to say that a depression Suchias we suffered through in the 1930 s is very unlikely. Q. Why do you say no Cash should be Kepi in a Safe Deposit Box. Page 154 of the great de pression of 1990" says a reason Able strategy for the Kufeke Pelni of your Monro then la to keep Only a third of in in a Bank account i third in a Safe Deposit Box and another third by Home beginning in 1990." a. Thai s baffle gab. Besides possibly violating you Safe Deposit Box contract Many of which prohibit keeping Cash in the lock Box following that strategy the misuse of a Good word would Cost you Money. Cash in a Safe Deposit Box or at Home in sterile dormant nonproductive. 11 cams nothing. As has often been stressed in this space Money should be kept Ai work earning More Money in i inter est dividends or appreciation in value. Tel you in will to he a 0 Rui and Market remains unpredictable new York Dpi the Hock Market s recent volatility look in loll last week As investors retreated to the sidelines volume dropped sharply and regulators and Market participants moved to Correct the situation and restore Calm. The Dow Jones Industrial average Rose 24.20 Friday to close a 1903.51, for the week however the Dow fell sz.56 Points or 2.7 percent there to no reason to be aggressive buyers of Slock one trader said. The recent volatility has not Only subdued the individual investor but the big players As Well. Until we get some Calm there s not a whole lot of reason to Lake big  do not want a Casino they want some  in that connection Sheanon Lehman Brothers inc. And its newly acquired , Hulton group said Friday they have indefinitely us Pended Index arbitrage program trading for their  company said that investor Confidence is being eroded by the extreme volatility in today s financial markets an Many of its client bad expressed concern that program Trad ing May exacerbate Market  Scarson move came one Day after the new York Slock Exchange said it had extended until feb. 5 its request to Mem Ber firms to halt program trading if the Dow moves 75 Points on either Side of Fth previous Day j  simply cannot get much going on the upside Laid Ricky Harrington technical analyst with interstate securities corp. In Charlotte . Adding however that the Market appears to have Strong support at around 1850. But we still have to be cautious going into next week with resistance on the upside at around 1910.1930." As measured bythe Dow Harrington said the 140-Poinl plunge on Jan. 8 turned number of people off Afler several weeks of normalcy. Its hard to convince someone to be in a Market thai can fluctuate 5percent on any Given Day. Time is the healer of wounds and this Bear Market will just have to play itself  indicators also declined on the week. The new York Slock Exchange composite Index fell 2.47 to 138.69. Standard & poor s a Stock Index dropped 9.5s to close the week at 246.50.on wednesday the Dow plunged s7.20 in the Market s worst performance on the week As relatively decent corporate earnings continued to be met with disappointment Motorola said its Burin Quarter earnings Rose to 79 Cento Ashare up from 49 cents in the year ago Quarter. While the proved As did ibm1, which were reported tues led the company s Stock Down. The labor department said the consume Price Index Rose 0.1 Screem in december and Rose 4.4 percent during 1987.in a separate report More disturbing to the Market the Commerce department said housing starts plunged 16.2 per cent in december the sharpest decline in More than three  earnings improved a i ii Day the Market Dragge e in economic news in lab mining issues on the week lopped gainers 978-939 among2,166 issues traded. Volume totalled 775,664,300 shares com pared with 817.326,650 the previous week and 1.06 billion year ago. On Lite trading floor. New York state electric a. Gas was the most Active nose  the week Down it to 20w. Pacific Orp followed Down % to 33.ibm was third Down 8vi to 110w. At to was off i to 10 28.among other Blue chips american express was up Vilo 2s1/, general electric wasdown2lo44w and Exxon fell 1 a to 39h.kodak was Downz to49k. Sterling drugbaincd4 to 78�. After the Market Cloud Friday Kodak said it agreed to acquiresterlingfor$b9.soashare, the american Stock Exchange Index Ich 2.6910 26s.62, while he National association of securities dealers Index of Over the counter stocks lost 2.s9 to 337.ss.on the amex declines beat advances 429-382 among 1,008 issues traded. Volume totalled 44,048,955 shares compared with43,819,685 traded 0 week earlier and 84,474,555 traded in the Wang labs class b led the Arm actives Down i to 14. Electric utilities not always that steady new York a for shelter fro Mihe vagaries of an Uncertain volatile in vestment climate some Wall Street analysts these Days Are suggesting electric Utility  May not be any startling new idea. Electric utilities with their typically High yields  been regarded As one of the most conservative placet to invest in the Slock Market. But in fact the group has t always lived up to its Safe bul stodgy reputation in recent  1984 through 1986, Many Clec tic company stocks racked up robust gains taking an Active part in the general Bull Market. Then last year Utility stocks turned downward Long before the october  those  and Downs they closely tracked the Bond Market which prospered in the mid-1980s As interest Rales fell and weakened through most of 1987when rates began to Rise. Electric utilities Are commonly Classi fied As interest Rale sensitive for a Cou ple of reasons. Since the companies re quire Large amounts of capital interest expenses represent a significant Clementin their operating costs. Even More important most Peep who invest in Utility stocks Are Lighty yield conscious. Thus when prevailing interest Rales change the Price of n Typ ical Utility lends to Rise or fall to keep in competitive with alternative investments such As , yields available from electric Utility share averaged about 9 percent just about the same a those available on Long term . Government  stocks of course do not offer the big safety feature of Treasury Bonds a Federal government guarantee Cov ering both principal and  the stocks have something the government Bonds Lack the hone foursome measure of inflation Protection in the form of future dividend  on Treasury Bonds is fixed. During the Stock Market s recupera Tive period electric utilities have greater than usual investment Appeal Given their generous current returns moderate dividend growth prospects and improve Cash flow maintains John Jones an analyst at Oppenheimer & co., in a current report on the group. We believe interest Rales will turn Dow during the Early cart of 1988, which should provide the basis for a very positive Stock Price performance for the  some analysis argue thai utilities will enjoy increased popularity in the aftermath of the crash simply because they Are perceived As relatively Low risk. That image Hurt them through the first eight months of last year the reasoning goes As Bull Market exuberance prompted investors logo after taster action. Since the Market turned last fall that son of exuberance has in sharply curtailed. Utility issues did lose ground in the october sellout that swept through virtually every Corner of the Stock  they suffered less than the typical  &. Poor s 500-Stock Compo site Index fell 27 percent from aug. 25through the end or the year s4p reports in its weekly publication the  that same Span the firm s Index of electric Lilily stocks dropped ii per cent. Utility Stock because of the Vita nature or the service the companies pro vide generally act belter than the Market during setbacks sap analysts observed. We believe that selected issues in the group offer Good value in Light of the Industry s strengthening  word selected is noteworthy most analysts agree because individual utilities can encounter significant prob lems with such things As nuclear plan projects or unfriendly regulatory Circum  Industry s financial gains in the mid-1980s worked against it Many analysts say by prompting regulators to take a less accommodative position ornate increases. This negative regulatory Cycle will run its course in Lime and most Likely will end in 1988." Jones argues. Amelco withdrawing from latin Loans new York a american express co. Is writing off All of its outstand ing latin american corporate Loans under ill strategy of withdrawing from that business. The diversified financial services com Pany said it would take a j350 million charge against its fourth Quarter earning sip account for the addition of s35q Mil lion to the loan loss Reserve Ai its Ameri can express Bank Ltd. Unit. The Bank will have a loan loss Reserve totalling $778 million about 60 percent of All non Trade related Loans to devel Oping nations and 14 percent of All Loans alter the latest addition. At year end i9e6, the Reserve totalled 192  . Banks made significant additions to their loan loss reserves Las year to account for billions of dollars in potentially in collectable third world debt. Last month Bank of Boston corp. Said in would write off s200 million i third world Loans about 60 percent of its third world portfolio As uncool electable the first major Bank to take such a  express said it wrote Oft Iso million in third world Loans in 1987. The write offs loan sales of $550million, conversion of $160 million of Loans in debt equity swaps and the shrinking Market value of the Loans combined to reduce the Bank s total third world loan portfolio to j 1.5 billion from $2.4  chairman Robert f. Smith said the Reserve addition and write offs reflect Boih the acceleration of our policy established in the second Quarter of 1987for an orderly exit from Cross Border lending and the decline in the secondary Market for Lac less developed coun tries