European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - February 20, 1988, Darmstadt, Hesse Page 10 the stars and stripes columns Donald m. Rothberg super tuesday is unlikely to Settle anything ". n i i Sil. I. A a in Flatic vie a resident. Who has a Strong organization thro Uthe new Hampshire primary was a great Triumph for two disparate groups the Republican establishment and lovers of political chaos a Corgi Bush. The quintessential establishment candidate emerged from the ashes of Iowa to regain inc Mantle of Republican Froni runner but his Victory High tuned the Hopes of those who cherish rousing to Lineal crawls and Hope for at Casl one this year that roes All the Way to the convention floor. Of Council is the democrats Wilh i hair looser rules find Lack of a Clear Leader who really provide Hope for an open convention. Michael Dukakis Triumph put him temporarily atop the democratic Field but none of inc seven candidates Hus demonstrated National a so it s on to the the candidates arc All taking dead aim on inc March 8 election Day when most of inc South and sume icy Stales oui Side will select enough delegates to Settle the races in both Par hut Don t bet on a super tuesday Resolution. The big stakes i w7 democratic delegates in 20 Stales 3rd 100 Republican in 16 states May Only confuse the contests rather than while them. You have to like hush s chances but Bolh parties Uffer scenarios thai argue for Long hard fights. Two Demix rals Wilshi us obvious Appeal in Dixie James j. Kilpatrick rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri and Dukakis split inc two Early events and now arc confronted of sen. Albert Gore or. Of Tennessee and Jesse Jackson on their own turf. Jackson finished fourth in Iowa and new Hamp Shire solid showings in two slates which have very few minority voters who provide his base of support. There is no reason to think that any of the other democrats can comic to with Jackson for the Large Black Vole in the a Tennis scan who has positioned himself to the right of the rest of the democratic Field Core has run a super tuesday strategy that will test a generation old political Assumption that you can t win the Nomi nation without competing in the Early events. I think super tuesday changes All the rules said Gore. It s a completely new Ball game its a Dicey strategy but even if it Falls Short Gore May get enough support on March 8 to is Labium his candidacy and perhaps leave Jackson As the biggest Winner of delegates that Day. Then in would be on to the Midwest for four democrats _ Jackson Dukakis Gap hard and Gore. That Prospect would do Light republicans. Bui they could be in a muddle of i hair own. If the Southern contest were Bush versus sen. Bob Dole the outcome would appear listed in favor of inc vice president through out the Region a Strong identification Wilh president Reagan and roots in inc biggest Plum of All tzium. But in won t be a two Man fight for the republicans rep. Jack Kemp lives to fight on in the South and Pat Robertson will be battling on his Home Lurf. Bush and Dole Are battling for the same Volen while Robertson has a constituency All his own Many of them people activated politically by a desire 10 sup port the former evangelist. Republican rules make in almost impossible for the presidential race to go All the Way to the convention in new Orleans Bent August. Chances arc better that iwo candidates or maybe even Ihrck will fight for the 175 delegates at slake in California s Winner take All Republican primary on june 7, but if there arc three republicans battling for that delegation the Field May be so split that even a California win would not put someone Over the top. All in All it s a volatile i on Bolh sides. On the morning after new Hampshire a Good bet is that super tuesday will Sci Lac nothing certainly Amon the democrats and inc cry thai night will he on to California by Way of Illinois new York edit of s not. Of Tull m Flo a Jwal to Ihbe ask Cowd Pic j we get the Quality of government we deserve in 1 us presidential election of 1 g4. Hardly half of America s voting age population went to the Polk two ques non present the com Lvcas was this a bad thine7 if a. Tull in so u j of done Abdul in the questions Are addressed in a re port jus released by the Commil Tec fur the study of the american Electo rate. Sad to say. The report is a dread Ful report not for its Content but for its style. 11 is couched in the arcane jargon of statistician who speak Only to statisticians the authors were obsessed with methodology Wilh Independent Varia Bles Wilh gaussian curves. They lost sight of political purpose in i hair fascination Wilh statistical Trees. Statisticians ought never to Wiric reports writers should write reports. Even so the Nai Ieni and diligent Reader who mines this Mountain of Standard deviations will find a few nub Cis of interest. As recently As i960, almost 63 percent of the voting age population turned out to choose Between Kennedy and Nikon since then it s been downhill almost All the Way. The Charl hit Bottom at per cent in inc Reagan Carter election of 1s 8u. In climbed up marginally to 53.1 percent in 1984. The figures Rob off year elections arc even More striking. In1986. Only 11 percent of eligible Ameri can cast ballots for governors and Mem Bers of Contr cd except for Switzerland no other enlightened democracy re Mold i matches the degree of apathy shown h shuts in the United states. Now. Is this a bad thing the a limit of this report find in appalling and they warn that these ipalion threatens domination of pub Lic Afram by Well organised special in ice cite any further decline can Only huh the nation of part of the Volunta Nam and cohesion upon which the of society in i Isri Only 16.ft percent of those in the l -24 age bracket bothered to Volt this docs nol augur Ell for the fun lure stale Quality and Quantity of american leadership and Partick the re join Gin s n to recommend that the Stales consider a possible remedies. At the lop of the list is election Day registration a citric a would simply to to the polls identify himself and immediately cast his vote. Other remedies might involve new corps of Deputy registrars fewer purges of ensling Rolls and efforts at door to door registration. One idea is to Register voters As they renew their Driver s licenses. Through these devices 6 to b million voters might be added to the 93 million who voted in i9b4. We have to inquire what is the Pur pose of these proposed reforms some thing More Musl be involved than Mere columns on a bar Chart. The object ultimately Musi be to promote belter Goy Erri Morrii thai is government that is Wiser More far Sching. More devoted to the happiness and welfare of our people. The trouble is thai these characteristics cannot be measured or As they say Wisconsin Minnesota and Maine have had election Day registration since 1976. Their turnouts Hove in creased modestly Over their turnouts in 1972. Has the Quality of their Legislatures improved have inc three Stales sent Superior statesmen to Washington is there any evidence that this procedure which carries a High risk of voter fraud has produced better government Montana Oregon Lovra Ulah Idaho and inc Dakotas always rank toward the top of a list of voter participation. Georgia Nevada Hawaii Arizona Texas and the Carolis regularly rank toward the Bottom. U in arc any Correla Tion thai demonstrably links Quality with numbers it u gravely to be doubled. Behind All the impenetrable statistics of this report lie a Hundred intangible factors not to be plotted among the in dependent the decline in voter participation roughly parallels the decline in party allegiance. There was a time when precinct chairmen and Ward Bosses could turn out armies oaths Faith Ful. No More. Obviously the data Are affected by Extension of the Vole in i�7i to 18-year-Olds, some congressional and senatorial elections arc fiercely challenged More often incumbents have an easy time of it. When Lille or no opposition arise Chi blk voters have no particular motivation logo to the polls. New systems of Mas registration cannot make an uninteresting election a matter of temp cum o
