European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - July 17, 1988, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 columns the stars and stripes Tom Wicker selection of Bentsen May backfire on Dukakis. . In. In it to a sr4-s o4n4 Michael Dukakis has taken a High risk in try ing to replicate the Juk lbs ticket of 1960 North East and Southwest Liberal and conservative by the Choice of Lloyd Bentsen As his running mate. The democratic party and american politics after All have changed radically in the intervening decades. In 1960, though president Eisenhower had made inroads into the once solidly democratic South that Region had not yet experienced the great growth of Republican strength among White voters that took place in the 70s and 80s. The Southern Black vote the was neither so numerous so Active nor so monolithic Cally democratic As it has since become. So Johnson a Senate compromised on civil rights with close ties to such Southern leaders As Richa Drussell of Georgia and thus More identifiably a South Erner than Lloyd Bentsen could and did Shore untraditional democratic strength across the South. In 1960, that was largely White conservative strength. White conservatives in the South now Are Muchmore conditioned to vote Republican in National elections even if they remain democrats in local poli tics than they were in 1960. They have been More Over the strongest supporters of Ronald Reagan audit s in the South that his popularity most nearly has been transferred to vice president Bush. Mostly for that reason Bush clinched the Republican presidential nomination on super tuesday in the Southern states. It s not at All Clear therefore that Bentsen a rela James j. Kilpatrick Lively staid campaigner compared with the colourful Lyndon Johnson can have As much Impact As Johnson did among White southerners. Nor is Bentsen on the face of it the Best Man to meet the democrats need to turn out a maximum Black vote not just in the South but in other states with heavy minority populations. That s Why the sensitivities of Jesse Jackson and his followers Are so important. Democratic liberals More Over after All the emotional Battles of the years since i960 May not be so ready to accept a conservative vice presidential nominee or so willing to work hard for a balanced left right ticket As they ultimately were in 1960.since it s winning 270 electoral votes that counts not National popular opinion state by state analyses of the race and the potential electoral vote As they no stand further suggest the risks of Dukakis s Southern strategy. The Field research Center of California for example found in a recent state Survey seventeen states with 227 electoral votes including the District of Columbia now lean toward or strongly support Dukakis. Twenty seven states with 214 electoral votes now lean toward or strongly support Bush. Seven states with 97 electoral votes Are too close to , Dukakis is credited with a Strong Lead in California which the democrats have not carried since 1964. If that holds in november it would reduce the importance of the former Confederate states to Dukakis. Save North Carolina rated a toss up they were All ranked As solid for or leaning to Bush. The 11 states with More than 10 electoral votes that now Are rated either too close to Call or As merely leaning to one ticket or the other logically should Bethe Battleground  in the Field Survey they include new York and Ohio both leaning to Dukakis Pennsylvania Illinois Michigan and North Carolina All toss  and Florida Indiana Virginia Georgia and Tennessee All leaning to Bush. In that analysis a Belt of six Northern states Newyork Pennsylvania Ohio Michigan Indiana and Illi Nois with 140 electoral votes Are battlegrounds still to be decided. The five other battlegrounds Are South Ern states with Only 69 electoral votes All save North Carolina leaning to George Bush. That picture of the situation at Midsummer obviously is subject to change after the conventions the debates the campaigns. Bentsen s selection already May have changed it making Texas for example a Battleground rather than a solid state for George bus hand pulling some other Southern states from leaning Bush into the too close to Call category. Even so the Field Survey suggests what a narrow and risky Choice Dukakis made when he opted for Southern strategy with Bentsen rather than a Northern strategy with John Glenn or Lee Hamilton. New York times Lef s Nof be in any hurry to offer compensation let us make haste slowly very slowly on this matter of compensation for families of the iranian Airliner Vic Tims. This is an idea whose time has not yet come. On tuesday the word from the Whitehouse was definite the United states will offer compensation. An unidentified state department official talked freely of the form and possible amount of such payments. A Host of detail would have to be worked out the official said but the principle of compensation had been accepted. Well whoa there unless article i of the Constitution has been amended in the past 48 hours it still contains a Clear commandment no Money shall be drawn from the Treasury but in Conse Quence of appropriations made by  before serious thought is Given to these details of form and amount the presi Dent will need an act of Congress. An before he gets an act of Congress this whole episode must be thoroughly an publicly explored. At the moment the Story is about As Clear As crude Oil. What do we know of this affair we know that on the morning of july 3, the guided missile Cruiser Vincennes shutdown iranian air s flight 655 from Bandar Abbas to Dubai across the Strait of Hor Muz. We know that president Reagan atone sent his formal sincere regrets to the iranian government. He intended his letter As an  we know because iranian radio car ried the statements that the Ayatollah Khomeini immediately promised re Venge retaliation and real War against the great  we know that in the past week these threats have been ameliorated. What do we believe we believe the incident was As president Reagan said a tragic  beyond these elementary observations there stretches a Long list of things we Donot yet know. We do not know what to believe. We do not know whether flight 655 was ascending or descending at the moment of Impact. Evidence is in conflict. We do not know positively whether the civilian plane was inside or outside of the established 20-mile corridor for persian Gul Pao course commercial aircraft. We Are told that the Vincennes sent seven warnings before the order was Given to fire three warnings on a civilian net four on a military net. We believe the iranian plane failed to respond to these warnings. We know Little about the elab9rate an complicated electronic detection gear that constitutes the Aegis system. Was i malfunctioning was it correctly picking up a dual civilian and military signal from the doomed flight the iranian airline announced that 290 passengers and Crew members were aboard the flight. All were killed. Within hours roughly 200 bodies were recovered from the persian Gulf. Reporters a Dubai described Many of the bodies As dismembered but a number were nude and unmarked. It seems an Odd circumstance. Iran had a television Cam Era trained on flight 655 from a vessel in the civilian corridor. Iran s government is beyond the Pale of membership in a civilized family of nations. No american can forget the Barbaric conduct of that government in the matter of the seizure of the . Embassy in 1979.neither can we forget that the government of Iran today effectively holds nine Ameri cans hostage in Beirut. It would be a grievous mistake to link the accidental destruction of the Airliner to the deliberate seizure of hostages but an understandable resent ment cannot be suppressed. Some distinguished members of con Gress approve the principle of compensation House speaker Jim Wright of Texas Utah s sen. Orrin Hatch Virgini a s sen. John Warner. Others Are opposed California s rep. Tony Coelho Arizona s sen. John Mccain. Let us examine thoughtfully the Prece dents in this area. Let us carefully assess the costs and benefits of the proposed gesture. Reagan May be right. My own feeling subject to change when we know More than we know now is that this time he is wrong. Universal press Syndicate