European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - July 19, 1988, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Tuesday july 19, 1988 the stars and stripes Page 3 stronger Dollar hidden dangers by Jonathan Fuerbringer new York not the continuing rally in the Dollar has had Short term benefits including making imports cheaper and reducing the Prospect of higher  it also hides real Long term dangers including a slowdown in economic growth and a widening rather than narrowing . Trade deficit according to three new economic studies. Although the negative Impact from an even slightly stronger Dollar will not be seen before this year s presidential election it could sow the seeds of serious economic problems Over the next several years for whoever is elected the figures show. On Friday the Dollar climbed to 1.88 West Ger Man Marks an 11-month High and to 135.48 Japa Nese yen a nine month High. And the Buck continued its climb on monday closing at 1.8881. If the Dollar holds at about its present level without falling Back the Trade deficit will Stop shrinking in 1989 and will begin to expand again in 1990, according to an analysis prepared for the new York times by data resources inc. Of Lexington mass. And data resources projected economic growth rates for 1989 and 1990 Are around 1 percent a year lower than anticipated now because of the decline in production of exports. Economic growth at this level would mean rising unemployment. A second analysis prepared for the times by the wefa group of Bala Cynwyd pa., shows a similar re Versal of the decline in both the merchandise Trade deficit and the broader current account deficit which includes services ranging from insurance to investment income. And an Independent analysis prepared by the Institute for International economics in Washington shows that even before the recent rally in the Dollar its level was still High enough in the first Quarter of this year so that the Trade deficit and the current account deficit would Stop shrinking in two years and not get below $ 100 billion. Such a Long term Outlook for the Dollar raises some questions about the administration s current policy and whether it should be tolerating the rally. The Levels the Dollar reached on Friday put it at even higher Levels than assumed in the three analyses which were prepared ear Lier in the week. The predictions May seem farfetched because the . Economy is in a record peacetime period of expansion inflation is under relative control and american officials appear to be pleased with the recent three week rally of the Dollar which has climbed More than 6.7 percent against the Mark and 7.2 percent against the yen. In addition Congress and the administration Are about to approve major Trade legislation aimed at opening foreign markets and the troublesome . Trade deficit after years at record Levels is shrinking As shown in the $10.9 billion deficit figure for May. Forecasts can be wrong. But these analyses fit with a general notion although not a consensus that the Dollar must fall rather than climb to assure that the Trade deficit continues to narrow. The level of the Dollar has a key influence on the Trade deficit. Even a Small increase in the Dollar can change the Outlook a Factor that has gotten Little attention. An added danger is that for the time being the Trade deficit figures Are Likely to continue to look Good fur ther relieving worries about a rising Dollar. The bad news would not begin to materialize until next year. This is because it takes so Long for the effect of a rising or falling Dollar to work its Way through the Economy. The danger caused by the Long lags is that we will have a period of false Assurance and Confidence be cause of the rapid improvement in 1988 and 1989," said William Cline of the Institute for International economics the data resources analysis the most detailed of the three is based on a modification of the company s current economic forecast. The current Outlook assumes that the Dollar will depreciate in 1988, 1989 and 1990. With this Assumption the Trade deficit is projected to be $140 billion in 1988, declining to $ 129 billion in 1989 and $ 115 billion in 1990. The Gross National product the total output of the nation s goods and services is projected under data resources current forecast to grow 3.2 percent in 1988, 2.4 percent in 1989 and 2.5 percent in 1990, after adjustment for inflation. In the alternative projection data resources As Sumes that the Dollar will stay at the average level through 1990 that reflects the current rally in the Dollar. Under this projection the Trade deficit will decline this year to $136 billion. In the Short term a rising Dollar makes the Trade deficit look smaller because the total Cost of imports declines As a result of the stronger Dollar but the new surge in imports that the rising Dollar will bring has not yet begun. But in 1989 the Trade deficit would narrow Only to $129 billion the same level As in the current fore cast and shrinkage of the deficit would Stop. In 1990 the deficit is projected to Widen to $ 133 billion. The analysis by the Institute for International economics is worrisome because it assumes that the Dollar stays at a level it reached before the present rally began in late june. These Dollar Levels Are 128 yen and 1.68 Marks. Under this Assumption the Trade deficit will narrow to a minimum of $100 Bil lion in 1989 and 1990 and then begin to Widen again. There is a consensus among government policy makers and economists that the Trade deficit has to shrink. Without improvement in the figures economists agree that the Dollar would be forced into a free fall that would be Likely to throw the United states and the world Economy into a recession. What economists Are concerned about is How the shrinkage of the Trade deficit is achieved. With a Dollar somewhat below current Levels they feel the Trade deficit can narrow slowly and the Economy can continue to grow at a moderate rate. But they Are worried that a rising Dollar when its Impact on the Trade deficit is realized next year will set off a sharper decline than is necessary risking a recession. For the Reagan administration the slightly higher Dollar can help Bush in the election by dampening inflationary expectations with lower import prices and relieving some of the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Bremerhaven Pov pickup list editor s note if your name is on this list your car is waiting to be picked up at Bremerhaven. You can use this list As the written verification the Pov contractor requires before a pickup appointment can be scheduled. The list is issued to the stars and stripes by the Bremerhaven terminal and comes on a computer disk based on information pre pared in the United states. Stars and stripes will normally have this information before it is available to local transportation offices. Abrams 5857 Adelson 5456 Allen 6328 Anez 9050 Austin 5731 Backus 9834 Bailey 9479 Ballanco 8733 Balmer or 4426 Barr 8509 Baumann 0741 Beardall 2301 Becho 4233 Beelmann 6788 Bennett 6060 Bennett 7086 Benton 7089 blanking 6434 boggess9180 Bonilla 7804 Bossler 2856 Bower 2676 Bradley 6454 Brandenburg 4943 bringas6181 Brooke old 2480 Brown 6621 Brown 3105 Brown 6095 Brubaker 6554 bryant6095 Bujno 0060 Burke 6164 Bush 9307 Butler 6874 byers1004 cacciamani8314 Caldwell 3321 Callo 0324 Cameron 3321 Carrington 4963 Carbon 4137 Castro 0278 Champion 9046 Christian 5238 Church 1768 clecker5115 Colby 5688 Cole 0966 Collins 4813 Colwell 6571 Comer 2957 Cornelius 9224 Crawford 1385 cress5136 Adams 7660 Ahrman 6973 Anderson 2865 Armstrong 1960 Awbrey 6690 Bailey 4321 Bailey 1405 Ballenger 4431 Barbera 5339 Barrett 7825 bean 6052 Bechdel 7970 beckner7319 Bell 5160 Bennett 3355 Bennett 4051 Blair Iii 2227 Blauch 6595 Bonham 9735 bopes1970 Boucher 6918 boyd0142 Bradley 8273 Bridges 6913 Brooke 8564 broussard8982 Brown 9568 Brown 9444 Brown 5506 Brueckman 4665 Buckingham 8826 Burgess 2635 Burns 3860 Bustos 4373 Butler 6905 Byerson 1726 Cacciamani 9325 callierjr2648 Camach Cuevas 7689 Carlson 1017 Carrington 8610 casebier0211 Cavan 2011 Chesterfield 7197 Chung 3571 Clay 0286 Clepper 5793 Cole 9553 Coleman 4436 Colo cancel 6477 Combs 4903 Cooper 8502 corthern5813 Crawley 6342 Cundiff 2545 curran8185 dailey4831 Daniel 9087 Daughtry 8024 David 8352 Davis 5961 Davis 7569 Deedon 9768 Delaney 7221 Delossantos 6940 Dennis 7291 dimaria2712 Dowling 0675 Drake 7628 Dunn 1078 Edgar 4926 Edwards 4503 eikenberg7565 Emery 4361 engleson6118 Erickson 3195 Evans 3080 faasavalu1069 Fannin 9039 Farmer 0329 Feeley 2207 Ferg 2292 Finger 2044 Fitch Mccaslan 2075 Fleming 0410 Flowers 6616 Francis 8504 Frederick 1772 Fry 5471 Gailey 0821 Garner 9826 Ghizzone 9953 Gifford 4276 Gilles 8690 Gilliam 8221 giraro5100 Glenn 4800 Gordon 5003 Grain 9452 Gray 3285 Gretchyn 0087 Grey 6215 Growden 8446 Guster 8305 Haig 3925 hammerle4616 Harper 7818 Harris 0561 harte9193 Hathcock 5035 Hazlett 3432 Henderson 0661 hermey1584 Hickman 3885 Hilke 2824 Hinson 7724 Hodges 5373 Holland 7286 Horton 3534 Howard 1901 Hughes 1526 Hunter 7296 Hutchinson 0301 Ingram 4049 Inniss 0751 Jackson 9537 Jackson 9250 Jeffrey 6170 Jenkins 6681 Dahl 2959 Dalton 6504 Daniel 5603 Davenport 8837 Davis 0768 Davis 9675 dedrich5151 Dege 7642 Deline 1869 Demby 7888 Devonish 7669 Dotterer 0560 Downing 6989 Duggan 8974 eckhardt9124 edie.0411 Eicher 2679 elmore2211 Enderle 3442 Enriquez 8365 Etienne 8809 exley1227 Fagan 8978 Farley 2527 Faure 5229 Feldman 9344 Fields 7370 Fink 1130 Fiumara 0538 Fletcher 4539 frahm4245. Frederick 1653 Friedrich 4642 fuentesapont9612 Garcia 5413 Gatlin 9585 Gibson 2239 Gilbert 7701 Gillespie 9631 Gilliam or 9043 Gleichsner 6283 Goodwin 3739 Graham 8354 Graney 1574 Green 6790 Grewatz 4936 Grimm 8315 Guidry 3732 Haake 4904 Hall 3232 Hardgrove 8759 Harper 4278 hart6395 hartsfield6146 Haynes 6867 Henderson 8175 Herlihy 3604 Hernadez 6554 Hickok 0224 Hill 6076 hobbs4911 holbert7104 Horn 1101 Hosafros 4832 Howes 6200 Hughes 3910 Huskey 0926 Hutton 6080 Ingram 5067 Irvine 8997 Jackson 2274 jarosinski9979 Jenkins 9769 Jenney 0777 jett3728 Jimenez 8625 Johnson 5232 Johnson 9720 Jones 8650 Jones 5172 Junker 0464 Kemptner 4436 King 9308 kluchonic4678 Kocher 9542 Konish 5886 Krogh 9391 Kueffer 0952 Lambert 1663 Lang 5479 lapanne9374 Larson 6170 lash 1450 Lawrence 8673 leatherwood9167 Lee 0675 Lemmons 5893 Long 4723 Lowe 4247 Lowen 0502 Mannery 5743 Marchand 3990 Martin 1972 mattiiaccio9498 Mattox 4434 my Cully 9245 Mcbride 5072 Mcclellan 4080 Mccormick 0470 mcdaniel1895 Mcgee 2006 Mcguffin 7357 Mckillip 4557 mcmanus2219 Melendez 8864 Meyer 6049 Miller 6429 Montanye 4801 Moore 3198 Moore 8988 Morrison 8634 Murdock 4098 Murphy 8674 Murphy 0962 Muto 6897 Myers 7032 Natal 7281 Newman 6263 Nixon 1722 nussio6881 Olsen 5170 Orfe 7703 Orwig 6705 osborne1789 palagar1925 parham0151 Parsons 4532 Patterson 2430  san 5035 Peterson 3898 Petty 4344 Pratt 5204 Pyatt 5863 Radin 0402 Redding 4666 Reid 8682 Reynolds 3201 Rierson 0243 Jewell 1103 Johnson 0751 Johnson 9700 Johnson 7417 Jones 5844 Jones 5033 Kemble 2637 Killian 4379 Kirslis 5887 knighten4150 Kolle 4338 kosikowski2390 kruse1861 Kuehn 4069 Lang 1498 Langford 8878 Larsen 8722 Larson 4445 lathe 1838 Lawson 4081 Lee 9870 Lefebvre 0437 Lindsay 2402 Lopezsoto 7685 Lowe 0638 Mann 4057 Manning 6135 Martin 7570 Martinson 1563 mattingly5313 Maynard 2363 Mckay 8381 Mccants 2954 Mccormack 5669 Mccoy 8587 Mcdaniel 7209 Mcgrann 2437 Mckenzie 7872 Mclean 2700 Mcnellis 6490 Mendoza 7526 milbourne2810 Mink 1245 Moody 6785 Moore 5605 Moralesjr 1958 Moss 1210 Murphy 7249 Murphy 7353 Murray 4848 Mycue 3276 Naeole 1352 Nelson 2843 Nicks 3444 notto 2835 Obrien 9754 Olson 4115 Orozco 2645 Osborn 0225 Paige 3132 Palmer 7191 parra7617 Patterson 7886 Patton 1838 Penny 0342 Peterson 6182 popp3312 priest 4264 Quitano 3479 Reaves 7486 Redmann 7846 Reid 8001 Richard 4573 ring 6871 Ritz 4791 Roberson 2250 Robinson 4743 Robinson 8677 Rodriguez 2382 roehrig7115 Rooney 9737 Rovegno 5286 Rush 5463 Ryan 2521 Sanchez 2766 Santiago 6270 Sassi 8868 Saunders 5789 Scheffler 3023 seals 2146 sermons4150 Shulman 3723 Sinclair 2758 Sloan 9455 Smith 5217 Smith 8554 Smith 8694 Smith 3316 song 4036 sotoaroch01272 springborn0141 Standberry 6774 Stark 3832 stclair9371 Stevens 4027 Stewart 8785 Stoneburgh 5727 Stroman 9826 Suarez 2430 Summers 6457 swenson1593 Talledo 3727 Tarter 9238 Thomas 7462 Thomas 3545 Tombrella 2850 Trouten 7849 Typhair 7993 varriale4710 velezcruz9219 volker5517 Walker 9893 Wallace 9221 Waller 0514 Ward 4279 Warren 5025 waymire2507 weeks 3510 Wheeler 5307 White 8753 Whitmore 7098 Whittenberg 9059 Wiersma 8832 wilhere0312 Williams 6273 Williams 4462 Williams 8744 Wilson 8578 Wise 6489 Wood 8459 Wyckoff 8662 Wynegar 3962 Yeakley 8463 Young 1568 Yukl 8406 Zerod 3538 bobbins 1198 Roberson 8329 Robinson 5926 rocha3212 Rodriguez 2088 roley1501 Rouse 0689 Rumph 9267 russel9926 Saenz 7246 Sanders 3390 sapp3121 Satchel 5997 Saxon 3817 schnoke3981 self 6281 Shamess 8898 Sims or 2598 Skaar 5552 Sloan 9134 Smith 3624 Smith 2261 Smith 4439 Snyder 3254 soonwing3498 speer6315 Stanberry 2443 Stanko 3384 stash 1107 Stell 6222 Steward 7005 stocks 5158 Strickhausen 2492 Stuart 1117 Sullivan 5365 Swain 2878 Szabo 8982 Tanco 0404 testerman1482 Thomas 8263 Thompson 3049 Torrence 5538 twenhafel7515 Vance 5310 Varsolona 7236 vogt2120 Waldron 6886 Wallace 8140 Waller 9837 Waltower 2026 warnimont3732 Washington 2410 Webster 1576 Weyrauch 2576 White 3197 Whitley 4275 Whitten 0999 Wieland 9570 Wilcomb 5068 Willey 0349 Williams 9610 Williams 2201 Williams 7691 Winters 4252 Wojciehowski 4588 Wyatt 1005 wydick4413 Yaronczyk 7328 Yelverton 4224 Young 4819 Zabala 2849