European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - October 1, 1988, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Indicators Index prompts worries Over interest rates saturday october 1. 19b8 the stars and stripes Page 9 Washington a the govern ment said Friday that its chief forecast ing gauge of economic activity Rose a moderate 0.4 percent in August the Rise in the Commerce department s Index of leading economic indicators was a bit bigger than most analysis were expect ing. It May be a signal that robust growth and the inflation that goes with it May require another dose of higher interest rates from Oil Federal Reserve Board. But analysts cautioned against draw ing conclusions from one month s Fig Urci. The Index is designed to predict economic activity six months to nine months in Advance and economists said it lairs three months of reports to establish a trend. In july the report said the Index dropped 0.6 percent after shooting up 1.5 percent in june inc Best in 18 months. The july dip earlier was calculated at 0.8 per cent and the j unc gain at 1.4 percent. In the August report five of the Avail Able nine components contributed to the increase four detracted from it. The biggest boosts came from a drop in average weekly claims for state unemployment benefits from 325,000 in july to 298,000 in August. A Rise in orders for manufactured consumer goods from $85.2 billion to $s9.3 billion last month also was a big plus. Together these two categories accounted for two thirds of the positive activity. Also adding to the Overall increase were rises in Plant and equipment or Ders in building permits and in the Price of raw materials which is read As a sign of Strong demand. Indicators malting a negative contribution in order of severity were a de crease in business delivery times read As an indication of slackening demand a drop in the average workweek a decline in inc Standard & poor s Index of 500 stocks and a contraction of Chr Money Supply in inflation adjusted dollars. The 0.4 percent Overall increase left the Index at 193.4 percent of its 1967 base of 100. Many analysts had looked for Only a slight increase in the August Index or for it to remain Flat. In the last week economists have been reconsidering a judgment that this year s robust growth was beginning a Welcome Cooling in August. Many now read signs of slowness As indicating a pause in growth rather than the Start of a it end. The August unemployment Survey the first report hailed As a sign of a slowdown jumped from 5.4 percent of the work Force to 5.6 percent. Retail sales and growth in personal income were also sluggish. Other analysts weren t so sure Point ing to continued strength in manufacturing of big ticket durable goods and evidence that the employment report May have been an aberration. Some analysts argued that the drop in jobless claims numbers could indicate the unemployment rate increase was a Fluke caused in pan by difficulty in adjusting the statistic for seasonal factors and in part by temporary factory layoffs caused by unusual heal and Power brownouts. Since its creation in 1948, the leading Index has correctly predicted All eight recessions however it also has falsely predicted a recession four times. Also preliminary estimates of the Index arc often revised substantially in later months. For instance declines were initially reported for five straight months from september 1987 through january. Later re visions wiped out All but two of the drops in november and january. The Index last declined for three consecutive months from june through a gust 1984. The economic expansion slowed but there was no contraction. The final formation first set Rodney f. Lecky left and at artillery Cavern in Nick Arsula two a. Michael l. Lysfjord commander Milts North of Hulbronn. Bury b is he of Bury a 4th in 9lh Field arty re first penning unit to be dissolved tire their Guidon the unit s Ike during under the provisions of Ike Interne the inactivation ceremony held Friday Diate Range nuclear forces treaty. Heidelberg West Germany a senior at Heidelberg High school was awarded inc rank of Eagle scout me highest Honor in boy scout ing in u ceremony wednesday. William major 17, has been in scouting for five years and has earned 22 Merit badges. For his Eagle scout award major organized a bicycle safety Check in the Heidelberg military Community. Along with other scouts from troop 4 he set up an inspection site at Patrick Henry Village to Check bicycles for official specifications. The scouts also led bicycle riders through an Obsta Cle course to Check for Safe Riding habits. Major who has been elected to the order of the Arrow the highest recognition for boy scout campers is an editor at his school newspaper. He is the son of col. William and Terry major. To become an Eagle scout a boy scout must fulfil requirements in the areas of leadership service and outdoor skills including at least 21 Merit badges and an average 100 hours on a Community project. Blacks plan buy american push to profess Japan s Sens of a by product recall Dallas a baby rattle sold in cafes stores is being recalled because the consumer product safety commission has determined it May pose a danger to Small children. The rattle is the shake v son rattle Model num Ber 5040, manufactured by plays Kool inc., a division of Hasbro inc. Of Pawtucket . Rattles purchased from cafes May be returned for a full refund. Washington a . Black organizations announced thursday a buy american1 in pc for the Christmas shopping season to fight japanese insensitivity to Black  the japanese have been reacting to . Black appeals against such insensitivity in typical asian Fash Ion they Havi been very polite. Dut nothing has happened said rep. Mervyn Dymally d-calif., chairman of the congressional Black caucus. The Campaign was designed at a meeting of leading . Black political business and civil rights organizations in september. Part of he japanese insensitivity is racial. Dymally said recalling critical remarks about . Blacks by former prime minister Yasuhiro Nakasonc and former finance minister Michio Watanabe for which they later apologized. Watanabe who told a party meeting last july that american Blacks seem unconcerned about declaring bankruptcy May be Japan s next prime minister the congressman said with Dymally at a news conference were representatives of the National Urban league the National association for the advancement of coloured people and the Black business Council three of More than two dozen supporting organizations. Kent Amos of the Black business Council said the buy american Effort called for the heaviest shop Ping season of the year is not a Boycott bul an Effort to divert part of american Blacks 1300 billion annual purchasing Power to companies in America responsive to our  we As a Black Community have been through the process of sensitizing insensitive communities before Amos said. In the 1960s and 1970s, it was corporate America. We Are much further along in our under standing of our economic role now and we won t be As patient. We Are willing to assist anyone willing to Lis ten but not enough people arc willing. And until that happens we will continue to have  the Campaign will include pressure to persuade Jap anese owned businesses and factories proliferating m the United slates to hire More Blacks at All Levels american vice presidents of such companies  ing to convince their japanese Bosses that this is America and we have affirmative action goals Dymally said. Japanese Auto companies with the exception of Toyota have no Black owned dealerships and japanese investors Are giving no business to Black Tea estate firms or Banks he said. For new factories every japanese automobile manufacturer seeks Rural South America or suburban North America As far As they can get from Urban Cen ters where there is a surplus of labor and where Minori ties live Dymally  insensitivity in Japan is being fought by some enlightened people in the government and some corporations arc taking the right Steps Amos said. " fall would follow the Lead of Sony electronics and Toyota we would be much further along he said. But he did not clarify How those companies could be spared potential loss caused by a buy american Campaign. The Black business Council seeks japanese invest ment targeted at revival of decaying . Inner cities. Its president Al Nellum will be pursuing this in Tokyo next week Amos said