European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - December 9, 1988, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 the stars and stripes columns Bryan Brumley Bush in no hurry to Moke deals with Gorbachev Mikhail s. Gorbachev facing turmoil at Homo could be in a hurry to make deals with the United states. But president elect George Bush with his  shape has every reason to tread slowly an army or Kremlin spokesmen has descended on the United styles hinting broadly that the soviet Leader would make new proposals possibly on cuts in nuclear or conventional arms. Central committee aide Nikolai Shishkin told Ameri can television viewers that Gorbachev would make a Cliris Mas gift to the american people and to Mankind during his visit. The while House reacted coolly not wanting to re peat the freewheeling Reykjavik Summit. We have a president who is leaving office in a few weeks who is not going to be making any promises that he is not Here to keep said while House spokesman Martin Fitzwater. And we have a new president who will be taking office in a few weeks who is not going to be making commitments when he does t have an administration i Power thai can fully Analyse and make these judgments said Fiu Walcer who will continue As spokesman in the Bush administration the american Side is wary of repealing the Detent experience entering into Broad agreements with the Kremlin Only to Sec superpower relations plummet. The americans were not expecting major agreement coming out of the lunch wednesday among president Reagan. Gorbachev and Bush about the most that should be expected from the americans is a commitment far a formal Summit Early in the Bush administration we arc being very realistic Fitzwater said. We find nothing embarrassing or in any Way negative about characterizing this meeting As a Friendly discussion an open airing of issues Between us and a healthy approach towards continuity.". Tass the official soviet news Agency expressed Cha Grin. It is Perfec Coly natural that the new administration will need some Lime to gel its bearings in the complexity of Domestic and International problems. But it is very important not to drag out this period. Marking time in International All airs especially in the Domain of anus limitation and reduction is tantamount not Only to loss of Lime. By to backsliding Tass said in a statement distributed As Gorbachev left Moscow for new York. Gorbachev s own status is mixed. He consolidated his control Over the Kremlin this fall assuming the Post of president and lowering his two leading politburo critics notch. But his Reform policies have not put More food on George will a think comrad Gorbachev is trying ,. Soviet tables or new clothes in soviet closets. Soviet officials acknowledged this year for the Fust Lime that their budget was running a deficit signalling that they have scarce funds for the capital improvements that May be needed to get the Economy going again. So Gorbachev comes to the United Stales looking for agreements thai could provide More Western credits and technology. At Home Gorbachev s policy of greater openness has brought Many Long suppressed problems to the surface. The Bailie republics of Estonia Lithuania and Latvia Are pressing for greater autonomy and racial antagonisms have forced inc Kremlin virtually to impose state of martial Taw in the republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan in the South. Gorbachev to give him wit breathing room at Home and to compensate for the problems of per Stroika or economic restructuring has been moving fast on the diplomatic front keeping at least a step ahead of the cautious americans in a dramatic first a soviet envoy negotiated on monday and sunday directly with afghan guerrillas. Western diplomats forecast thai the soviets would allow the moslem guerrillas a role in a transitional government and the red army would meet its withdrawal deadline offer. Is. A -.-. Gorbachev also was taking Steps to improve relation with Western Europe and China further reducing ten Sion on the soviet Periphery. Bush insisted that he would participate in the lunch con Only As vice president but he added i expect they la be aware they re talking to the next president. He has been prudently assembling a foreign policy team of pragmatism. On a personal level Bush has been waiting for a longtime for the top Job Cooling his heels for eight years in the White House wings under Reagan. He faces the unenviable ask of reducing the budget and Trade deficits and the Challenge of reasserting the leadership role forthe United Stales in a changing world. Soviets seek to Goin Thot Edge of . Expense non sequitur a can be As illuminating As Epi Grams and vermin Walters . Ambassador to the United nations offers a Dandy in an interview in life Magazine. With Mikhail Gorbachev in our. Midst Wal lers statement bears scrutiny because it is symptomatic of something worrisome an epidemic of complacency. Life asked Walters because nations have become so economically interdependent Aren t Here powerful Dis incentives against War Walters answer began yes War is going out of style there has t been a successful War since we stopped Llie communists from overrunning South korea.". " the last sentence is murky but certainly false. The Vietnam War was a Success for North Vietnam which won it. Wallers statement reflects our National Solip sism nothing i real except american preoccupations. But even if in were True Hal there had been no Success Ful wars since Korea that thought would not validate wallers Fin though about War going out of style con Sider inc Orcsi of Walters answer to life nations Don t Gurto War just to get a lot of people killed and the economic Cost of War is absolutely incredible. All the hurly Burly of Ira Gate was about $31 Mil lion Worth of arms Hal was supposed to have been Given to the iranians. That amount would sustain an artillery bombardment for maybe 1s or 20  now that communists know thai events have refute Marx americans especially conservatives arc the last economic determinist a. Imbued with commercial values and convinced that Man is Homo economic us a rational calculating creature Many americans base for eign policy on one idea. It is the one falsified in 1914 the idea that Commerce conducts to peace because economic self interest governs human conduct. Yes War is expensive and nations do not undertake Illo get people killed. But nations pay the Price in treasure and death because economic considerations rarely arc controlling no nation goes to War with a gun in one hand and a calculator in the other. Economic determinism is a soothing Way of ascribing10 the soviets familiar motives Ihal make them seem predictable manipulable and moderate. In the 1970s,the Days of detente and soviet adventurism the West hoped economic forces would produce  Trade and credits would bind Down the soviets with a thousand Little threads cumulatively immobilizing like Gulliver among the lilliputian in the late 1980s, the soviet Magazine new timescales glasnost and per Stroika marvelous keys to Ameri can  at the current Semi Summit they will be keys to the coffers of american capitalism. Today theory uncontaminated by an association with evidence is that Gorbachev wants to move the soviet Economy away from militarism but before he can build Trump Tower on the Banks of the Moscow River 2 bedrooms River View 10 million rubles he need Western help Money lest the conservative they Are the problem everywhere overthrow him. But 4s months into the Gorbachev Era there is this perfect continuity with the Brezhnev Era there is no moderation of Mili tary spending within the supposedly strapped soviet Economy. Anglo Codevilla of the Hoover institution writing i commentary argues convincingly that the soviet Union judged not by rhetoric of intentions but by its military Power relative to that of the United Stales is As much of a threat As Ever maybe More we Are he says guilty of solipsism in this sense Many american argument about what is happening in the soviet Union Are actually not about events there. The arguments arc attempts Lov indicate various american policy preferences. After eight years of near total administration confusion Abou icbms vulnerability the word of Brent ,1 soon to be George Bush s National Security advise the situation is As Codevilla describes in. In the last decade the soviets have moved from approximately two icbms warheads for each a Tai Jet missile Lilos bomber bases submarine ports command and Contro centers to approximately three warhead per target decade ago the Carter administration thought we needed 200 Mobile my missiles 2,000 waive ads to survive first strike and threaten soviet icbms held in Reserve in fixed silos. Now we Are Down to 50 my vulnerable unfixed locations while the hew soviet icbms Are Mobile suppose the argument that was made a thousand Ware ago the argument made even before the invention of guns is True. Suppose War is so expensive it is going Oul of style. Deterrence too is expensive. And the Hollcr native to deterrence need not be War it can be politically decisive military superiority for one Side. After nearly four years of Gorbachev the evidence it hat the soviet Union still seeks that advantage expects in to subsidize its efforts and will not be disappointed.