European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - January 3, 1989, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 the stars and stripes tuesday january 3,1989 Tom Wicker Bush must make the environment no. 1 cause the shot that killed Francisco Mendes Filho last week in Brazil May not have been heard round the world though it was reported on Page 1 of the new York times. But Mendes s violent death May at least further Alert global authorities to the Dan Gers of deforestation an environmental abuse he fought so effectively that he prob ably was murdered by the land exploiters he opposed. Mendes was a founder and organizer of the Union of rubber tappers whose traditional and environmentally sound Way of life in the Amazon Jungle was threatened by indiscriminate land Clear Ance. At his death he was the most prominent Leader of the rubber tappers the recognized National spokesman for their inter ests and the recipient of a global 500 award from the . Environmental project for his work in Forest Protection. His life had been threatened he said recently by local landowners and monday the son of one of them claimed to have hired the killer. In the Remote regions of the Amazon such violence is not unusual and Mendes had made enemies with his determined Battle against further destruction of the tropical Forest. He and his followers were credited with saving thousands of hectare from the Bulldozer. A hectare is 2.47 acres but far More of Brazil s Rich tropical moist Forest is gone forever lost not just to the rubber tappers who harvested it without damaging or exploiting it but to the wildlife whose habitat and ecosystems have been destroyed to the food and Tim Ber uses it might have served and to populations All Over the world who depend on the Chlor Phyllic action of plants and Trees to keep the Earth s atmosphere from excessive pollution. That dependence is rapidly becoming precarious. Emissions of Carbon dioxide into the atmosphere have increased in re cent years from about 1.5 billion tons annually to More than 5 billion tons. In the first half of the 21st Century car William Safire Bon dioxide concentration in the air will be about double that of pre Industrial times that will contribute heavily to the sex called greenhouse effect expected to raise the Earth s temperatures. Mendes thus fought not Only the rubber tappers Battle but the whole planet s. Moreover the assault to which he responded in the far off Jungles of the Amazon was not merely the product of shortsighted Bra Zilian development policies. It resulted Alsofrom the rising demand in the United states for cheap beef to make the big Mac Sand whoppers on which the new fast food Industry was thriving. Pasture fed cattle from latin America were an economical alternative to Grain fed beef from North America. So Brazil embarked on a Sehle Struc Tive course tax credits exemptions and deductions As Well As subsidized Loans for private entrepreneurs to invest in cattle ranching. Inevitably these economic seductions led to the Large scale conversion of Forest land to pasture though the Forest was far More valuable inherently and per haps even economically than pasture. Between 1965 and 1983, 469 Large cattle ranches averaging 23,000 hectares each were established in the Amazon Region. Twenty five percent of this land by my calculation about 10,517 Square Miles was actually cleared by 1983. The result through 1983, was a $2.5 Bil lion government investment in effect subsidizing irredeemable deforestation and land degradation. For most of the entrepreneurs Mendes fought so hard profits were immense. Brazil is by no Means the Only offender. Every year throughout the world about 11 million acres of tropical forests and Woodlands Are destroyed mostly to Clear land for agriculture to feed growing populations or to Supply Exchange earning exports. At present rates of loss by the end of the decade 2007-2017, several countries will have destroyed All their forests Nige Ria the Ivory coast sri Lanka Costa Rica Al Salvador. Thus the kind of fight that Mendes waged literally to his death was of concern far beyond the Amazon As Are Ozone depletion acid rain toxic wastes desertification Ocean spoilage diminishing re sources rising population and numerous other impending crises. No More serious problems face George Bush As he prepares to become president with All the influence that office can exert on world development and conservation practices. Bush has made a Good Start with his nomination of William Reilly to head the environmental Protection Agency. But even so experienced an environmentalist can have real Impact on these global prob lems Only if they Are Given the highest priority by a president As determined in his Way As Francisco Mendes Filho was in his. C new York times multiple Choice look at what May happen in 88 Only three More weeks to go before Jack Kemp and Jeane Kirkpatrick Are inaugurated As president and vice president of the United states. That s what was predicted in this office Pool last year and i am not yet prepared to concede error. Other commentators newcomers to the annual predictions Dodge pioneered 15 years ago in this space Are falling All Over themselves to admit being mis taken in their Pale imitation to pools. They think such self abasement proves Candor honesty humility. Wrong shows weakness. I was nearly right about the Economy last year and the rest i forget. Looking ahead 1. World figure to take leave of Power a Deng Xiaoping b Ayatollah Khomeini c Yasser Arafat d Moa mar Gad Afy. 2. Book to generate the most political talk will be a David Mccullough s biography of Harry Truman b Michael Korda s novel the Fortune c Elizabeth Cotton s insider Book on the Jesse Jackson Campaign d Nancy Reagan s blast at her tormentors and Kitty Kelley s ultimate torment dual selection. 3. The budget deficit will a cease to be an Issue As a recession looms b be turned Over to the Beltway committee for taxation of Rich social Security recipients c be reduced by growth lower interest rates and $35 billion Gramm Rudman automatic spending Cut without new taxes d drop with towering defense cuts sin taxes and an Oil import fee e panic everybody by rising. 4. Media world will be rocked by a Mega mergers of publishers broadcasters and film makers Sony co Lumbia Genic Mca time Warner Bertelsmann . B resistance by . Media to takeover by. Axis Powers As Sony Bertelsmann Cap cities airs the Maxi series War and forgetfulness Glam Riding Yamamoto and starring Kurt Waldheim As von Rundstedt c Ted Turner fighting to retain control of can making a Deal with Rupert Murdoch s fourth network As both become japanese citizens d Larry Tisch of lbs moving to counter Axis Powers High definition to set invasion by leapfrogging into technology compatible with present screens. 5. Leveraged buyouts will be a boosted by Michae Milkin s acquittal and defense counsel Arthur Liman s subsequent political debut b stunted As Congress changes tax Law to eliminate deduction of debt interest and double taxation of dividends thereby discouraging debt and encouraging equity c discredited after the great junk Bond collapse following fed s anti inflation sunup of interest rates. 6. James Baker s first mistake As Secretary of state will be his a Bac Down on ski testing to get a Start treaty b unwillingness to pressure Greece to Stop freeing terrorists or West Germany to Stop Selling Poison Gas plants to Libya c acquiescence to propaganda pressure for a human rights extravaganza staged Moscow. 7. Mikhail Gorbachev will startle the world by a answering a polish uprising by rolling in soviet tanks b tearing Down the Berlin Wall c aborting a Summit meeting by insisting on keeping his Battle radar at Krasnoyarsk d negotiating conventional arms reductions to include 40 percent fewer soviet troops e getting himself replaced by Viktor Chubrikov. 8. President Bush o.k., it won t be Kemp will disappoint right Wing supporters first with a the freezing out of Jonas Sav Imbi in Angola b a failure to confront doves in Congress with support for the contras c the appointment of a big name special envoy to Force a Quick Deal on a Plo state d his Cave in to european protectionists on the meat War which would signal Bush acceptance of 1992-ism. 9. Popularity of a George Bush will be higher than Ronald Reagan s at end of first year b sen. George Mitchell will pass gov. Mario Cuomo As potential de Menominee causing the latter to Issue weekly declinations and Bill Bradley to form a secret Alliance with Al Gore c Dan Quayle to Rise sharply As he is recognized As the Only outright pro Israel voice on the National Security Council. No Reader is permitted to shout Dunder head at the pundit next year a practice so Many otherwise gentle people find curiously satisfying unless he or she plunges into prediction s Pool now. My picks Are by do by a a c. Three Steps to successful prognostication 1 bet your Hopes not your fears who wants to Root for being wrong 2 never play it Safe what fun is there in being right when everybody else is 3 hide your marked up copy next year you can privately Burn it having Learned How Little we All know or if you Luck out you can wave it about triumphantly shouting Dun Der head at the rest of us. C new York times