European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - February 12, 1989, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 the stars and stripes Andrew j. Glass military budget May be Bush s Tombstone test White House Media managers titled the pres fact Sheet that accompanied the new chief executive s first speech to Congress president Bush s Agenda building a better  but it is in fact a rather rough blueprint for negotiations with democratic con Gressional leaders on How Best to slice the government pie. Nearly everyone Here expects those talks to take place soon although nothing has been settled As yet let alone announced. They might produce a bag of hot air like the Effort once mounted by Gerald r. Ford another Republican president who mixed it up with the Congress to whip inflation  moreover the stalled nomination of former sen. John Tower of Texas As defense Secretary suggests that it is nearly impossible to Drain All partisan bile from the washing ton body politic. Still unless a lot of democrats in High places Are utter fakers it seems As if George Bush has elicited a remarkable spirit of cooperation in his Maiden Mon thin the presidency. Some democrats who excoriated him during the 1988 Campaign portraying Bush As narrow politician who lacked vision now readily sing his praises. The people didst Send us Here to Bicker Bush observed from the Rostrum of the House. The notion of consistently using government As an effective tool to solve problems was fundamentally alien to for Mer president Reagan. But it is one that both Bush an democratic chieftains both readily can accept. It re Mains the foundation of their anticipated venture unshared Power. One cannot attain the presidency without also car ing about How future generations will judge one s stewardship. Bush recognizes that his newly minted Agenda Falls Short of curing the nation s deep seated fiscal and social ills. To meet his goals Bush must Cut the deficit braising revenues. He must also retard the growth of inefficient payouts to special interest groups. And finally he must reorder the nation s military priorities. Only if he does All these things does the non charismatic Bush stand a Chance of passing what presidential class politicians privately Call the Tombstone test the ultimate judgment of history. Point by Point the Bush program accomplishes one of these tasks. It Calls for no new taxes. It avoids dealing a blow to big Federal payouts. In agreeing to freeze Pentagon outlays in real spending terms Bush merely keeps the defense establishment treading water. Nevertheless the seeds for Broad reforms could be George will planted assuming that sometime later this year a grand bipartisan bargain is struck on an Overall budget approach. Even lip readers know that such a Deal must entail new taxes. But politicians Hope Many people will abide by the Revenue increases amid their general sense of Relief that at Long last a commitment exists to under take major structural repairs. The True Sleeper in the Bush Agenda is his instruction to the National Security Council to review the Range of foreign policy and National Security challenges facing the nation and to report Back within three months time. Naturally there s a danger that such an exercise placed in the hands of timid officialdom and doctrinaire bureaucrats will yield a self serving opaque re port one that snips Here and there without eve dealing with Root issues. But there s also a possibility that four decades after an All powerful America checked the tide of soviet expansion Bush will alter his concept of the real threat to America s Well being. By any rational measure the nation s military might extends Well beyond its current Means. Should Bush Deal with such cosmic questions and furthermore should he bring the democrats along in the Van his prospects of passing the Tombstone test will surely Rise. C Cox news service risk of recession has never been greater fat turf tit Nair to a wry. I a a delightful joke stopped being delightful when it became National policy. The joke was two politicians fall into a deep Ravine with Steep sheer sides. We re trapped cries one. No says theother Well just assume a  imaginative assuming once a cottage Industry i Washington is now because of Gramm Rudman hol Lings deficit reduction requirements a sacrament. President Bush is assuming More rapid economic growth than most economists assume More rapid increases i productivity than have usually been achieved in the postwar Era and interest rates plunging enough to pro Duce 7 percent mortgages. Sen. Fritz Hollings , is so fed up with the fudging of figures and cooking of books provoked by Gramm Rudman Hollings that he proposes in effect blowing it up. He would remove the social Security Trust fund surplus from the budget. That would turn the entire Congress hair As White As Hollings hair. In the fiscal year that ended sept. 30, the advertise deficit was $155 billion. However the real deficit for All government activities other than social Security which had a $39 billion surplus was $194 billion. Take social Security the surplus is growing $72,000 minute and other Trust funds highways airports out of the budget and suddenly the Bramm Rudman hol Lings deficit target $150 billion is about $135 billion More Distant. To attack the True deficit of $285 billion Holling proposes freezing All spending exempting Colas and new entitlement beneficiaries and enacting a 5 per cent value added tax to fill a deficit reduction Trust fund. You Are thinking he can t be serious. He is. But popular government will not permit that. This is the kind of crisis democracies Deal with poorly. The Cost of living off seed Corn is slowly cumulative anaemia quiet and virtually invisible. Of course a recession would get everyone s attention. Would will. The current expansion was 74 months old on inauguration Day. If it lasts until the next inauguration it will be 122 months old. It has already run 42 months longer than the average of the 30 cyclical expansions since the Middle of the 19th Century. Federal Reserve chairman Alan Green Span is in charge of keeping the expansion going with out allowing inflation to get going. The fed is one of the few Federal institutions that can achieve what it intends. Its intentions pertain to interest rates. Green Span is a serious inflation fighter but his room to a never with rising rates is severely limited because recession has never been riskier than one would be now. In a recession the decline in government Revenue would produce soaring deficits and leave the govern ment without the option of counter cyclical  if you assume perhaps imaginatively that the problem of insolvent sayings and Loans has Bee solved recession or rising interest rates could produce a huge new problem from today s marginally solvent savings and Loans. The servicing of third world debts and hence the health of important . Banks depend son third world exports to a growing . Economy. Leveraged buyouts and borrowing by corporations re sisting hostile takeovers have produced debts that can not be serviced unless the Economy is growing. For a perspective on our current vulnerability con Sider this the Carter budget submitted in january 1980, proposed a deficit of $15.6 billion. The interest costs on the debt this year will be $130 billion More than in 1980. That is As Hollings says like a new $130billion spending program. It redistributes revenues re Gres sively to buyers of government Bonds. Much of the Federal budget is a mechanism administering a huge and regressive inter generational Transfer of wealth. The 12 percent of americans older than 65receive 27 percent of Federal spending and Are As a group better off than the rest of the population. Forbes Magazine calculates that the Federal govern ment spends More than ten times As much per capita on the elderly As on children. Sen. Pat Moynihan d-n.y., notes that ours is the first society in history in which the poorest group is children not the  percent of the elderly Are in poverty. Twenty percent of children Are. Guess which group votes at higher rate than the rest of the population and which group does not vote at All. We Are spending less per capita to enhance the productivity and thus to enlarge the income of our Chil Dren than our parents spent on us. Here is a question Tor the fellow who says he wants to be the education president do you want to increase spending on Edu cation coming to the heart of the deficit problem productivity american children spend 180 Days a year in school japanese children spend 240 Days longer Days. Japanese students outperform american children in math science engineering. American children do better than japanese children in English. For now. C the Washington Post