European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - February 17, 1989, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Friday february 17, 1989 the stars and stripes Page 9 Luck May have defused cuban crisis faulty intelligence credited for averting War Cambridge mass. A Luck May have played As Large a role As states Manship in averting nuclear War during the 1962 cuban missile crisis an Exten Sive re examination by soviet and Amer ican experts suggests. After poring Over newly declassified documents and holding two International conferences scholars at Harvard University said wednesday it is Clear that president Kennedy and soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev made key decisions based on faulty intelligence and serious misperception. Faulty intelligence however May have helped to resolve the crisis As Wellas to Start it said Graham t. Allison Dean of Harvard s John f. Kenned school of government. Looking at it in retrospect with Al the new information i still give High Marks to president Kennedy and also perhaps surprisingly to Khrushchev for the degree of control they tried to exercise Allison said. But nonetheless it is now Clear that there was a great component of Good for tune. It was a combination of extraordinary skill extraordinary courage and equally extraordinary Good Luck that permitted us to avoid  the crisis flared on oct. 15, 1962, when an american u-2 spy plane photographed the installation of nuclear tipped soviet ss-4 and ss-5 missiles i Cuba. Kennedy deliberated with aides for a week before announcing a naval quarantine of Cuba and a demand that the soviets withdraw the missiles. Soviet ships steamed toward the blockade and what seemed to be a inevitable military confrontation. But the soviet ships stopped Short an Khrushchev agreed to withdraw the missiles from Cuba in return for an american pledge not to invade the is land. Allison said it now appears that Khrushchev gave in partly because he had received an urgent message from Sergei Khrushchev. Son of sex soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev attending Harvard seminar cuban Leader Fidel Castro dictated froma Bunker saying an american military attack was imminent. A soviet general Dmitri a. Vol Kogo nov also advised that an attack was coming which turned out not to be True said Allison author of essence of Deci Sion a 1971 study of the crisis. Among the revelations the re examination has produced an enraged Nikita Khrushchev or dered soviet ships to steam through the . Blockade but the order was re versed by Anastas Mikoyan the first Deputy soviet Premier just hours before military confrontation would have occurred. It remains unclear whether Mikoyan circumvented the decision on disown or obtained Khrushchev s Permis Sion. According to cuban politburo member Jorge Risquet 270,000 cuban and soviet soldiers were ready to go to War four times the . Estimate atthe time. Unknown to . Leaders 20 nuclear warheads were on the Island during the blockade and could have been mounted and fired within hours. Castro May have asked the soviets to launch a preemptive nuclear  Khrushchev son of the former so Viet Leader reportedly described Castro request in private conversations at the Moscow conference but has since denied he said such a thing. Nikita Khrushchev did not Autho Rize a proposal by the soviet intelligence Agency Kab s station chief in washing ton to american journalist John Scali. The offer which involved withdrawing soviet missiles from Cuba in return for removal of . Missiles from Turkey was Long considered the key to ending the crisis. Soviet and cuban leaders believed . Invasion was imminent before the missiles were installed. . Official shave said the United states had no such plans. But a recently declassified memo by american adm. Robert l. Dennison says contingency plans for an air attack a invasion or a combination of both were finished in Early october 1962 and .troops had been ordered into combat readiness before the missiles were detected. In the analyses at the time and eve since we thought the Only real reason for their putting missiles in Cuba Wasto put the american Homeland at risk and change the strategic balance an the defense of Cuba was regarded As a kind of hoped up piece of propaganda said Harvard researcher James t. Blight. Now blight said it is apparent that the soviets knew about . Covert operations to destabilize the cuban regime and put the missiles in Cuba mainly be cause they believed a full scale invasion was Likely. Kennedy and his advisers All believed that the quarantine was a relatively mild response blight said. They had no idea that the Way that blockade would be perceived in Moscow was As a prelude to an invasion and a virtual declaration of  Calif still no. 1 in Landing defense contracts Washington a Californi retained its accustomed ranking As the nation s top beneficiary of Pentagon con tracts last year according to a report re leased wednesday. Nationally a continuing decline in de sense spending resulted in a procurement decrease in 32 states in fiscal 1988, the report states. Bucking that trend Virginia increased its share of contract dollars by 31percent to finish second. But the Gap Between the top two state was huge California contractors won $23.5 Bil lion in awards Down 4.3 percent from the fiscal 1987 total of $24.5 billion. California is the Home of Many Large aerospace computer and electronic con Cerns that work on military weapon projects. Virginia contractors won $ 10.2 billion in awards up from $7.8 billion in fiscal 1987, when the state finished fifth. Part of the Virginia increase came from contracts that the Newport news a shipbuilding & dry Dock co. Received for two nuclear powered aircraft carriers. Making the biggest improvement on a. Percentage basis Mississippi reported a64.3 percent jump from $1.5 billion to $2.4 billion. The information on defense spending trends was contained in a statistical report titled prime contract awards by  the latest defense department report Cov ers fiscal 1988, the 12-month period that ended sept. 30. Eighteen states plus the District of co Lumbia reported gains most of them Small. Altogether the defense department the armed services and the army corps of engineers awarded contracts totalling $ 142.15 billion for work in the United states in fiscal 1988, compared with $ 147.15 billion in fiscal 1987 and $149.3 billion in fiscal 1986. For 1988, the top 10 list showed Texas in third place with contracts totalling $9 billion followed by new York with $7.7 billion Massachusetts with $7.2 billion Missouri with $5.5 billion Florida with $5.3 billion Ohio with $5.1 billion Connecticut with $4.9 billion and Maryland with $4.3 billion. Those Are the same top 10 As in fiscal1987, although the rankings changed. At the Bottom of the list the 10 state that benefited the least from Pentagon con tracts were South Dakota with $53.6 Mil lion in contracts Wyoming with $54.6 Mil lion Idaho with $61.5 million Montana with $80.1 million North Dakota with$117.3 million Vermont with $121.7 Mil lion Nevada with $206.7 million West Virginia with $218.5 million Delaware with $233.3 million and Nebraska with $258.5 million. The biggest losers in fiscal 1988 were Georgia Indiana Michigan new York Massachusetts Arizona and Pennsylvania. Georgia s total dropped 54 percent to$1.6 billion while Indiana and Michigan each experienced 31.9 percent drops to $1.5 billion for Indiana and to $1.3 billion for Michigan. New York suffered a 19.9 percent de Cline to $7.7 billion Massachusetts a 17 percent decline to $7.2 billion Arizona a17.4 percent decline to $2.65 billion and Pennsylvania a 13.9 percent decline to $3.3billion. Navy awards contract for 3 mine sweepers Washington a the Navy said tuesday that it has awarded a$185.1 million contract to a Wisconsin shipbuilder for three additional Ocean going mine sweeping ships. The service also announced a Sepa rate $35 million award to the Newport news shipbuilding & dry Dock co. To inactivate and refuel two nuclear pow ered attack submarines. The two submarines Are the Skipjack which was commissi9ned in 1959, an the Sculpin commissioned in 1961. The Navy described the deactivation As Rou Tine and said the decision was based on the age of the vessels. The Large contract was awarded to Peterson builders inc. Of Sturgeon Bay wis. Peterson is the Lead contractor for the Avenger class of mine sweepers. Two weeks ago the Navy announced it had settled a dispute with another wis Consin shipyard that also is building the vessels. In that Case the Navy said it was providing additional Money to ensure that the Marinette Marine corp., which has been struggling financially completed work on the three ships it has under contract. Construction of the vessels at both Yard was delayed for two years because of hundreds of design changes. The ships Are unusual in that they use Low Metal engines and must be made with Glass reinforce plastic sheathing on a wooden Hull in order to maintain the Low magnetic signature essential for Hunting and Clearing mines. Peterson has delivered the first ship inthe class the Avenger and has four others under contract besides the three awarded tuesday. The Navy has not said How the settlement with Marinette will affect that company s participation inthe program