European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - March 6, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                The stars and stripes column George Gedd who should get credit for a saving Nicaragua a nicaraguan president Daniel Ortega was a trapped Man. He was under res sure not Only from the United states it also Western Europe and even the soviet Union. He was left with one course hold a free election. That in the most succinct terms is the Way american officials described the plight in which Ortega found himself during the months leading up to the history making election in Nicaragua. For years americans have been debating who lost China and who lost Cuba. Now there a a new question who saved Nicaragua the debate has already started. Was the administration smart Lucky or both did the election vindicate or discredit president Reagan a policy of military support for inc nicaraguan contras whatever the answers Seldom has any policy fallen into place quite so neatly As the administrations approach to Nicaragua. Secretary of slate James a. Baker Iii Felt a Strong sense of vindication last monday when former president Carter in Nicaragua As an election observer telephoned him at 4 15 . With the Surprise news Violeta Chamorro the martyred widow had won in a landslide. For a decade Nicaragua seemed like just another intractable third world dispute. It was one of those a flow intensity conflicts which appeared to be beyond Resolution much like Afghanistan Angola and Cambodia. When the Bush administration took office last january it was intent on shelving the previous policy of military support for the Contra rebels. But what other options were there for taming the sandinista less than a month after taking office the admin ministration saw an opening when Ortega promised his Central american colleagues that honest elections would be held in february 1990. The reaction among Many conservatives was deep scepticism that Ortega would keep his word. But the administration decided to cooperate with the process switching its support from the externally based contras to the internal opposition to Ortega in Nicaragua. The administration also struck a Deal with the Congress that in effect ended a decade of internal warfare in washing Andrew j. Glass ton Over Nicaragua. The Deal while ending military Aid for the contras enabled them to survive through . Food donations As a potential future threat to the sandinista. As a show of support for democracy the administration publicly discouraged the rebels from engaging in armed attacks and urged the Contra leadership to return Home in peace. The . Embassy in Managua quietly counselled Chamorro a coalition to guard against splintering at All costs. The United states and the Central americans were not the Only ones pressuring Ortega. He went to an Aid donors conference in Sweden last april hoping to raise $250 million for Nicaragua a devastated Economy and reportedly came away with Only $20 million. The europeans agreed with the United states that Aid should be withheld until after a free election. As outlined by . Officials the soviet Union the sandinista so chief military Backer also played a constructive role. As an example under soviet pressure the sandinista promised opposition candidates last summer they would be allowed to Campaign freely. Three weeks ago a soviet american statement pledged Mutual respect for the results of free and fair elections. A fall of these elements combined a a senior administration official said last week a helped create an environment in which free and fair elections were the Only Opportunity for the sandinista government to normalize relations with the rest of latin America and with the United states and to obtain legitimacy and economic  but How would nicaraguans vote most of the pre election signs pointed to an Ortega landslide and Ortega himself thought he was a shoo in. A sandinista Victory was suggested by Public opinion polls in Nicaragua. Most of the 55 state department officials who took part in a $2 office Pool predicted a sandinista Victory. But the handful of officials who Deal with Nicaragua daily sensing the polls were unreliable All predicted a Chamorro Victory. Indeed the Nicaragua desk officer Craig Kelly foresaw a 55 percent to 41 percent win for Chamorro her precise margin of Victory. The associated press Quot Tell me some More think that Coultm possibly happen Foth in a Rich buddy in the know is Selling everything an old pal now Worth $100 million or so dropped by the office the other Day while his stretch limousine purred in wait. My very Rich Friend rarely visits Washington these Days because he says George Bush runs such a Dull shop. He came this time because his College Roommate now an influential senator had summoned him. The senator is pondering whether to run for president. A go ahead and run a my Friend advised. A a there a a Good Chance that Bush will become Hoover Zed by 1992�?� democratic politicians know that a Hoover Izeda has nothing to do with vacuum cleaners. It has to do with president Herbert Hoover the Republican who failed to win a second term in 1932 because the country had plunged into the great depression. My Friend and his partners control More than two dozen corporations. A a we re hunkering Down and we re not investing in any More companies a he said. A a we re staying As liquid As possible and paying off All the debt we  the Bush administration rejects such dire economic  j. Boskin serves As the presidents chief economic adviser. Over breakfast the other Day i asked him whether he thought the country faced an imminent recession. A a it a very unlikely a Boskin replied. A of course there Are no ironclad guarantees. The . Economy is in a period of slow growth. It has been expanding steadily for the last 87 months. That a a modern  Boskin who taught economics at Stanford said he expects the Economy to continue to improve As 1990 continues. A we think the upward business Cycle can go on for some time to come a he said. A a we re not absolutely certain. But the chances Are very very  academics Call economics the dismal science but it is not a science in the same sense As say chemistry. It has to do with making choices about such matters As spending and investment and then watching to see How those choices effect Peoples lives. That show it happens that my pessimistic Friend the multimillionaire has a View so markedly disparate from that of the chairman of the presidents Council of economic advisers. Boskin strikes a visitor As a True Bush Ite honest serious studious sincere and wholly unimaginative. We have Little to fear from this administration so Long As the great events that Are now shaking the world do not rumble too closely to americans shores. But one wonders How would Bush amp co. Handle a grave economic crisis the United states is in Hock by $3 trillion a figure so High than even professional Money managers cannot fathom its scope. More than $550 billion of the Treasury a paper resides in foreign hands. What would happen if foreigners sold off a Large hunk of their Bills notes and Bonds in order say to invest in Eastern Europe officials Here say that by doing so foreigners would Poison their own Wells. It makes no sense they argue to undermine the . Market the largest most diverse and most liquid in the world. To get that message across the president has dispatched Treasury Secretary Nicholas f. Brady on a tour of european  calling his own number he flew to Haim Springs calif., for two Days of Earnest talks with japanese prime minister Yashiki Kaifu. But if my friends forecast proves accurate to non Boskin will be gone by 1993, to be succeeded by a Democrat like mites Lester Thurow. Thurow thinks the answer lies in higher productivity and More . Investment especially in the stagnant manufacturing sector. As he puts it a the japanese Arentt buying Azicri Ca we re Selling it. We re consuming $100 billion year More than we produce. They have to buy America with the Money what else can they do i it All a Cox news service