European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - March 20, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                A ,v., pc or i i Ltd a Xavy fort gtnc.j w4 mgt a. A a amp a a a Otto my my Lilly Ali m n a a amp amp amp in a amp my Pim a a 1 y it 1a in fit t of a a a. A sex <4> air Force forecasters in Germany staff sgt. Steve Taylor plots wind patterns on a Chart in the Graben Trarbach station. The Weatherman a Weatherman by Chuck Roberts staff writer the us air Force s european forecast unit at Graben Trarbach West Germany could be called the wholesale weather warehouse for Europe. It provides Large quantities of information such As wind warnings a lots of wind warnings a that smaller weather units refine for their own use Quot we give them the big picture and then they tailor it to their specific Mission Quot said capt. Bill Munley operations officer for the underground weather station which is a tenant unit of the German military geophysical office. Quot basically we re the Weatherman s  business has been booming for the 26 air Force forecasters because of the severe windstorms that have claimed nearly 200 lives and caused billions of dollars in damage in Europe this year. The unusual weather has Boon caused by a changing weather pattern that has dropped prevailing winds farther South this Winter. I earn chief 1 St it. Tim Schott said the forecast unit issued 125 Point wind warnings for Safe in february compared with 48 the previous year. Quot and we thought last year was Busy Quot Schott said. Quot however we had a handle on every weather system that came through. It made the Job interesting and it definitely kept us Busy. I be never seen so Many specific Point storm warnings  Point storm warnings Are issued for winds stronger than 35 knots about 40 Mph in areas surrounding a military installation. A Normal Day s Job during sunny pleasant weather keeps the staff Busy Munley said but it has been feast or Amine Lor the person responsible for issuing wind warnings. Quot As far As warnings go one Day you can be twiddling your thumbs and not doing anything and the next Day you re pulling your hair out because you have five or six different warnings going on at the same  but Adverse weather does have its Bright Points when it comes to getting out the warning to Batten Down the helicopters on the flight line said maj. Jim Davenport commander of the weather site which is buried in a Hillside High above the Mosel River. Quot it s easier to forecast real bad weather or real Good weather Quot Davenport said. Quot it s the weather that s in Between that s  he compared a Weatherman dealing with Clear and predictable weather to a newspaper reporter faced with a slow news Day. It looks easy but it s not because the Job is easier and More enjoyable when something interesting happens. Strong winds have provided plenty of stimulus. The weather unit begins issuing wind warnings at 35 knots. Severe wind warnings Are issued at 50 knots about 57 Mph and it is sometimes difficult to know exactly when to get the word out Munley said. Quot if we put out a warning for 50 knots and it hits 49 knots Well we did t hit the warning and the numbers but that customer out there is real darn glad that we warned them Quot Munley said. Quot so when we hit a near miss we feel pretty darn Good that that was a Good forecast although on paper it does t show that it  on paper their goal is to be right 55 percent of the time when issuing wind warnings. The forecast unit has been accurate 82 percent of the time the past two months but was 100 percent accurate for the most severe storms Davenport said. Quot i guess you could say weathermen have a morbid sense of accomplishment Quot Munley said Quot because we sit Here and say yeah the winds Are going to blow at 50 knots and when it hits 50 we say yeah we hit a Quot Quot to see your thought processes actually validated is i Pimm x. Loti the Weatherman feel really Good and gives Iso of  Munley said. Quot that a 1 get your Job satisfaction. Force weathermen Are responsible for a weather information for an area of about one i Are Miles stretching from Iceland to the ural i in the soviet Union and from Morocco to Fobia Par acts the european forecast unit from i r t. A a Timothy Schott foreground checks his Sture and wind condition charts. I in a a computers play a major role at the european forecast Unis amps photos by Mohelm airman 1st class Tim Peters prepares a cover note before transmitting a weather Chart by Tel fax. Tuesday Marco 1990 the 52 air Force weather installations to which it provides information is technology Munley said. The european unit has the advantage of using a mainframe computer that can process millions of pieces of information in seconds. Also weather maps that would take at least an hour to plot in a base shop Only take about five seconds to produce at the european weather station by using a so called interactive graphic system. Munley said the equipment they use is similar to equipment used in the United states by the National weather service but he pointed out that equipment is Only As Good As the people operating it. A Quot you can have the greatest computer Power in the world but it is the human interface that puts it Al together and makes a forecast Quot Munley said. Quot computers Don t make forecasts people make  but weather forecasters do not produce the weather. Munley said people Stop him in the Street and ask him Why can t he do something about the weather. Quot the line i always use is i m in sales not production Quot automating . Meteorology by Thomas h. Maugh ii los Angeles times at most weather stations in the United states weather forecasters read temperatures and Monitor precipitation several times a Day in the same Way Thomas Jefferson did by looking at a thermometer and emptying out a rainfall collector. The radar used for tracking storms and identifying tornadoes dates from the korean War. Quot we Are the Only group in the country that teaches courses in repairing vacuum tube electronic equipment Quot meteorologist Bud Littin said. Quot we have to keep our radar  but not for much longer. Beginning this year the National weather service is initiating a five year $3 billion program to bring its fact effies into the 21st Century. The improvements will include automation of All weather stations for round the clock collection of data new computer systems for greater localization of weather forecasts new state of the Art radar that will provide saturation coverage of the country and new satellites to supplement the weather service s sole satellite. A this will be the most revolutionary change since the National weather service was founded 100 years ago Quot said its director a Man with the unlikely name of Joe Friday or. Perhaps the most important improvement will be greatly increased accuracy in predicting abnormal weather events such As hurricanes. Quot the United states has the widest and wildest variety of weather in the world Quot said Friday who joined the weather service nine years ago after 20 years As a weather forecaster for the air Force and became director two years ago. Quot we have More tornadoes More Flash floods and More thunderstorms than any other  in fact each year the United states experiences about 10,000 violent thunderstorms 5,000 floods 1,000 tornadoes and several hurricanes a events that together cause More than $30 billion in property damage. And despite the High tech satellite pictures that appear on the evening newscast each Day and the supercomputers that produce most of the forecasts the weather service by and Large monitors storms with equipment that is antiquated. But the system will also improve everyday weather forecasting. Quot our five Day forecasts now Are As Good As our three Day forecasts were 10 years ago Quot Friday said. Quot with the new system in place our seven Day forecasts will be As accurate As five Day forecasts Are  Overall he added the accuracy of forecasts could increase from the current 85 percent level to greater than 90 percent. For fiscal 1991, the Bush administration s budget Calls for $170 million to begin implementing the program on top of its Normal budget of $300 million. The first new weather stations will be installed 111 the Midwest in Quot Tornado Alley Quot Friday is confident that the Efi Anges will yield a marked improvement in service. That Confidence is based primarily on tests of prototypes of the equipment conducted during the past two years in Oklahoma City and Denver. During that period he said the accuracy of severe weather warnings has increased from 59 percent to 91 percent while the incidence of warnings that proved to be false alarms has dropped from 60 percent to 21 percent. Quot in Denver we have not had a Surprise snowstorm in the last two years Quot he said. Many of the improvements in storm forecasting Are based on the use of new so called doppler radar systems that not Only show the location of storms but also reveal the Speed and direction of air and water movement within the storm the new radar systems called Neurad use sophisticated computers to measure slight differences in the Wavelength of radar bounced off rain particles in the storms. If the water drops Are moving away from the Antenna the Wavelength increases if they Are moving toward it the Wavelength gets Shorter. The amount of the change tells the Speed of the water drops. Currently Tornado warnings Are issued Only after a visual sighting. The new Neurad systems Are expected to allow meteorologists to observe tornadoes As they form and to predict their motions. Plans Call for a total of 160 Neurad systems to be installed 121 to be operated by the weather service and the rest by the Federal aviation administration and the department of defense. In a separate development the Faa is planning to install at least 40 Short Range doppler radar systems at airports to detect Quot microburst Quot the Short lived severe downdrafts that have caused at least two plane wrecks in the United states. Eventually the number of systems May increase to More than 100. The stars and stripes a a a Page 15