European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - July 9, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Editor s note a websters defines recession As Quot a period of reduced economic  Federal economists however have More technical definitions. Today s weak Economy May not qualify As an official recession but for millions of americans if sure feels at least As bad As the dictionary definition by Scott Mccartney associated press r Ichard Lyon and his son tried to make a living with a two truck shipping company. But Milfs outran them the business shut Down and Lyon drove straight into bankruptcy court in Phoenix. Don t Tell him the Economy s not in a recession. Quot we re just one of the statistics now Quot Lyon shrugged. . Ballard went from building 78 Homes a year in Phoenix in 1986 to six this year. The three savings arid Loans that financed him each were declared insolvent and seized by Federal regulators. He a found it difficult to borrow More Money. Quot i have essentially closed my company Down Quot said Ballard a director of the National association of Home builders. Quot i thought it was Only happening to me. I thought it was isolated to Texas Arizona and some other problem areas. But it s not. Its happening  a recession not based on officially sanctioned economic statistics. They show the us. Economy continues to eke out slow growth prolonging the longest peacetime expansion in history. But in some regions such As the Northeast and parts of the Sunbelt local economies have slipped dramatically. In some industries most notably housing a recession is clearly under Way Many economists say. For millions of americans from clerks in debt Laden retail stores to defense Industry machinists facing unemployment and truckers and builders like Lyon and Ballard the times feel like a recession a an unofficial recession. Quot official proclamations aside i think for certain sectors and certain states it is a recession Quot said Robert Brusca chief financial economist at Nikko securities co. International in new York. A this is not a typical business Cycle recession but the regional problems May finally drag Down the rest of the country a said Albert Sindlinger a forecaster whose Wallingford pa., firm tracks Quot household liquidity Quot As a measure of the Economy a health. Sindlinger a Survey predicted the last two recessions when it found More than 50 percent of  households responded negatively to at least one of his key questions dealing with household income jobs and business conditions. That happened again for the first time in january. Quot historically every time that we be had the nation with Over 50 percent of the population in recession that was the month that the government later issued a declaration saying that was when the recession started Quot Sindlinger said. Consider a a the labor department reported no Job growth in the private sector during March april and May. A an official forecasting gauge called the Index of leading economic indicators has remained sluggish this year. The Gross National product the broadest official measure of economic activity has been growing at less than a 2 percent annual rate since october one of the slowest periods since the 1982 recession a new Home sales have fallen for six months also to the lowest level since the recession year 1982 the Auto Industry is stalled by a sales slump and defense contractors Are laying off thousands. A bankruptcies Are growing. They Range from the huge corporate variety resulting from junk Bond debt like that of Federated department stores to the personal variety resulting from unemployment or too Many Bills. The latest report on regional economies by the Federal Reserve the nations Central Bank said most Are weak or growing Only slowly. Still the feds periodic assessment released late last month found healthy economies in the Northern Midwest and the Pacific coast states. ,. Moreover economists say key ingredients Are missing to Lay the groundwork for a recession a most notably the High inflation that causes interest rates to jump sharply and bring business to a halt. They also say the Economy today is far More diversified than in the past. Quot if the Economy was still As heavily dependent on housing and autos As it was in the 60s and 70s, then id say clerk Kevin o Brien poses amid mounting files of documents at . Bankruptcy court in Phoenix. Proceedings at the court increased by a record 18 percent last Yean this year activity is already up 24 percent Over that Pace. We re in a recession. But it s not Quot said Prudential Bache securities inc. Economist Edward Yardeni who coined the term Quot rolling recession Quot to describe the regional downturns that have swept across the country in recent years. Quot i would still characterize it As a rolling recession Quot Yardeni said. Quot if you want to find recession you can find it. But it s not  the National association of business economists Stilt predicts the Economy will skirt a recession through 1991. Economist Robert a Eggert whose Sedona ariz., firm compiles the Blue Chip consensus forecasting report agrees. Quot i feel very strongly that we will not have a recession As a nation this year or next Quot said Eggert. On the other hand he said Quot recession like conditions Are Likely to prevail in some industries and regions of the nation. It s going to seem like a recession to some  it seems that Way in Kevin o Briens business which grew by a record 18 percent last year and this year is up 24 percent Over that Pace. Customers line up before opening and use a night drop Slot Long past closing. The number of employees has nearly tripled in four years. O Brien s shop in t the hippest High tech firm or video store. He a the clerk for the . Bankruptcy court in Phoenix now one of the busiest in the nation. By the looks of the rows of people poring Over stacks of bankruptcy documents you might say the local Economy was in a recession. But like the rest of the nation arizonans Economy is growing sluggishly. A few office buildings Are still under construction in Phoenix. State unemployment is running around 5 3 percent about the National average. Quot it is a very soft Economy Here said Ron Simon economist with the Arizona department of economic Security. Quot within Arizona you could say that construction and related industries Are in a recession but Overall we Are Silil growing As a state so we Are not in a recession As a stale but it s  monday july 9, 1990 the stars and stripes Page 13