European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - July 17, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 4 a a the stars and stripes tuesday july 17,1990 a v rises Washington apr the Bush administration on monday dramatically raised its estimate of the fiscal 1991 budget deficit to $168.8 billion two thirds higher than its forecast just six months ago. The increase could Force automatic spending cuts of More than $ 100 billion if Congress and the administration fail to agree on a package of spending reductions and tax increases. Mondays estimate did not include the costs of bailing out the savings and loan Industry. When those costs Are included the deficit climbs to $231.4 billion the White House said. The new forecast is far higher than the $100.5 Bil lion estimate included in the presidents budget when it was released in january. It is also significantly higher than the $64 billion deficit target set by the Gramm Rudman balanced budget Law. If Congress is unable to reduce the deficit to within $10 billion of the $64 billion target it triggers across the Board spending cuts. Along with the new deficit estimate the administration included dire warnings of what could happen if budget negotiations Between Congress and the administration fail and the across the Board cuts Are triggered. White House budget director Richard Darman said across the Board cuts of More than $100 billion would be unprecedented in their magnitude and Quot highly disruptive to a Host of government programs. Darman said such a reduction would require a 38.4 percent Cut in non defense spending and cuts of Between 25.1 percent and 43.3 percent in military programs. Social Security and some other entitlement programs Are exempt from Gramm Rudman cuts forcing even sharper reductions in other programs. Darman said the Gramm Rudman cuts would Force major reductions in air traffic control operations increasing delays for air passengers by 4q0 percent to 600 percent. The cuts would also require a 40 percent Cut in the head Start program affecting 200,000 youngsters and sharply curtailing other government programs ranging from poultry and meat inspections to cleanup of superfund toxic waste Sites. Quot if the Summit negotiation fails these effects Are exactly what we will face in the fall Quot Darman told a news conference. The administrations new estimate makes it highly Likely that the Gramm Rudman Law will have to be at Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady puts his hand to his face on monday As White House budget director Richard Darman briefs reporters on the Bush administrations new estimate of the budget deficit. Least modified Given the size of the savings needs to reach a $64 billion target. Both the administration and Congress have been discussing spending cuts and tax increases in a Range of Between $50 billion and $60 billion about half of what would be needed with the new estimates. By emphasizing a deficit figure that did not in elude the savings and loan bailout the administration seemed to be laying the groundwork for removing this giant expenditure from the Gramm Rudman calculations something that Many Mem Bers of Congress have proposed. The administration blamed the Sharp deterioration in the deficit on the higher than expected a amp a bailout and weaker economic growth which cuts into government revenues and higher interest rates which raise the Cost to the government of paying for the $3 trillion National debt. The mid session budget review also lowered projected economic growth from 2.6 percent to 2.2 percent More in line with what private forecasters Are predicting. Prediction of major quake dec. 2 has folks rattled in the heartland by the associated press a scientists prediction that a quake might strike Missouri and neighbouring states dec. 2 appears to have shaken Loose the seismic fears of people in the nations  prediction by climatologist Iben Browning a who claims to have forecast the oct. 17 san Francisco Bay area quake but whose theories Are disputed by most seismologists a has not created a panic. But along the new Madrid fault the example of the Northern California quake coupled with Brownings forecast has raised awareness of earthquakes and earthquake safety. Insurance sales Are up a school District has tentatively cancelled classes and two states National guards have scheduled drills that week. The fault which roughly follows the Mississippi River from Mississippi to Illinois May not be As Well known As the san Andreas fault in California but it commands respect among earthquake experts. The last sizable quake on the fault was in 1895, but that a not the one people talk about. The big one a actually the big three or four a occurred in 1811 and 1812, when a series of quakes entered in new Madrid mo., rocked much of the Eastern half of the nation. The quakes rang Church Bells in Washington d.c., and Are said to have made the Mississippi River run backward. They have been estimated at around 8 on the Richter scale. The quakes have become part of the folklore of the Region a Quot its our fault a a to shirt proclaims. But until recently that was about As far As it went. Quot we talked about it for years a said sheriff Jake Rone of new Madrid county a but we never really got serious about it until this thing happened a the thing that has people talking up and Down the new Madrid fault is a projection by Browning a scientist from Tijeras n.m., that there could be a major quake in the Region dec. 2 or 3. Browning 72, an inventor and climate consultant bases his projection on a convergence of tidal forces which he believes can put stress on earthquake faults. But he stresses its a possibility not a certainty that such a quake will happen. Still he claims to have predicted last october a Cali Fomia quake using the same method a he says he warned a group of executives in san Francisco seven Days before the quake. Despite the disdain of seismologists a school District in Mississippi county ark., has tentatively cancelled classes dec. 3 and 4. Insurance agents in Arkansas say their business in quake insurance policies picked up noticeably after the California temblor and dramatically after word of Brownings projection became Public in March. The director of Indiana a emergency management Agency does no to necessarily believe the forecast but he does no to disbelieve it either. Quot i basically have taken the position we Are not going to ignore this prediction Quot Jerry Hauer said. Hauer also is chairman of the Central United states earthquake consortium which includes emergency management directors from the states that would be hardest hit by a new Madrid quake a Arkansas Illinois Indiana Kentucky Mississippi Missouri and Tennessee. The consortium has taken no action to prepare for a december quake and Hauer said Browning probably will be proved wrong. But just in Case he Isnit Hauer said Quot if we have to schedule National guard drills during the month of december Why not schedule them that week a officials in Missouri and Arkansas have already done just that both planning earthquake drills for guardsmen in the first few Days of december. Quot if something does happen Well be there a said Arkansas Guaro spokeswoman maj. Cissy Lashbrook. Quot if nothing happens people will see we re prepared for this Type of  of b-2 pegged at $508 million More than �?T91 estimate Washington up a the b-2 stealth bomber program will Cost $508 million More next year than defense Secretary  Cheney estimated in april when he Cut 1991 production from five planes to two the air Force said monday. Air Force maj. Dick Cole confirming a report by the Trade newspaper aviation week amp space technology said Congress was informed of the increased Cost in a letter sent july 11 by air Force Secretary Donald  attributed the extra $508 million to increased overhead and fixed costs by contractor Northrop corp. Because of a slowdown in production. He also linked the higher Cost to Cheney a cutback in the production rate and the need for additional Long Lead production funding to hold open subcontracts. The air Force estimated in january that it would Cost $5.4 billion for the b-2 program in fiscal 1991, but in april Cheney reduced 1991 production from five bombers to two and he Cut the entire program from 132 planes to 75. Cheney said that the new budget for fiscal 1991 would be about $4.14 billion and that the whole program Overall would drop from $75.4 billion to $61.1 billion. In his july 11 letter to Senate armed services committee chairman Sam Nunn d-ga., Rice said the air Force had determined it actually will need $4.65 billion in 1991 a $503 million More than Cheney a april estimate