European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - August 11, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse Page 10 the stars and stripes saturday August 11,1990 Terence Hunt Bush needs Brooder perspective in Mideast policy president George Bush driven by America thirst for Oil has taken the Riskiest Gamble of his administration by sending . Forces to a faraway confrontation with Iraq s Saddam Hussein. Exposing americans to a potentially widespread conflict poses immense dangers for Bush. Other . Presidents have painfully Learned that the Middle East can easily become a political Sand trap a graveyard for . Service members and a prison for hostages. Bush acknowledged that the United states May have to pay a big Price to Stop Iraq from plundering saudi Arabia and its vast Oil reserves. Standing up for our principles will not Conifer easy Bush cautioned the nation in a speech wednesday from the Oval office. It May take time and possibly most a great Bush politically Strong at Home has spearheaded International efforts to drive Saddam s troops from Kuwait and keep them out of neighbouring saudi Ara Bia which is the largest single supplier of . Oil. He imposed economic sanctions and a . Oil Boycott against Iraq and then rallied other world Lead ers to do the same. But so far Only Britain has joined Bush s military efforts to counter Iraq. In times of crisis americans Are Quick to support a president and rally around the flagpole in a nationalistic Way said political scientist Tom Cronin of Colora do College. Public support usually erodes when casualties occur hostages Are taken or military actions prove unsuccessful. The risk is even greater in the Middle East be cause we Are under severe limitations of weather Lan Guage distance and because of Arab animosity toward the United states Cronin said. The danger of hostage taking is real with an Esti mated 3,000 americans in Kuwait and 500 in Ira who Are vulnerable to Saddam s whims. What he does that s a bit unpredictable Bush acknowledged. Even for a superpower like the United states sad dam is a formidable foe. Saddam s million Man Force hardened by eight years of War with Iran is the fourth largest army in the world. It is armed with More than 5,600 tanks Over 500 combat aircraft and an Arsenal of chemical weapons that Saddam has been willing to use even against his own countrymen. Saddam has proven his willingness to fight not Only with Small neighbors such As Kuwait but with Well armed adversaries like Iran. It s not a country that Bluffs said Judith Kipper a Middle East expert at the Brookings institution. Barry Schweid there s no subtlety Here. He s not somebody who puts troops on a Border to Wink and despite the hazards Bush s hand was forced by America s dependence on foreign Oil which accounts for 50 percent of the Petroleum used in the unite states. Iraqi control of saudi Arabia would give Saddam the Power to control Oil supplies and prices. Bush said Iraq s aggression could pose a major economic threat to the United states which already has been edging toward a recession. If a recession comes Bush at least can blame sad dam. Even while confronting Saddam Bush emphasized that . Troops would be used solely to prevent an invasion of saudi Arabia not to drive iraqi troops out of Kuwait. For now that is too big a step Bush judged. He expressed Hope that global economic Sanction would compel Saddam to bring his troops Home. A the crisis in the Gulf puts a spotlight on Bush s reluctance in recent months to try to restrain Saddam. The White House opposed congressional efforts to impose sanctions on Iraq and argued it could win sad dam Over by diplomacy. The fact is it did t work conceded White House press Secretary Marlin Fitzwater. We did the Best there also Are lingering questions about the effectiveness of Bush s policy toward the Middle East where the president has been frustrated time an again. We have not had a regional policy said Kipper. We have tended to always look at this through the a Nam of the Arab israeli suggesting a broader perspective she said we ought to look at it through an Aerial View a satellite View. That s been our failure the failure of the Bush administration.". Terence Hunt is Chiel White House correspondent for the associated press invasion prompted new assessment of Saddam if and at this Point it s a big optimistic if . And world pressure forces Iraq s Saddam Hussein to pull Back from Kuwait three of America s Best friends in the Middle East stand to gain new stature. The three Are Egypt which has stood virtually alone in the Arab world alongside the United states. Jordan which ironically stood apart. Israel which has sounded warnings about Baghdad that until now were considered exaggerated. Saddam s drive into Kuwait shocked the Bush administration into a Starke perception of the iraqi Leader than policy makers were willing to consider Only a few weeks ago. Sanctions urged by con Gress were sidestepped then As too harsh although consideration was Given to re storing Iraq to the state department s list of countries that support terrorism. Now with Kuwait in the hands of an invading iraqi Force and . Troops pre paring to defend saudi Arabia s Oil Fields the United states seems poised to take Saddam on preferably through an economic blockade backed by an International Armada. In Pursuit of this strategy president Bush sent defense Secretary Dick Che Ney on the Road to persuade the saudis their Oil Fields must be secured and then to Egypt to stake out bases there. Secre tary of state James a. Baker Iii also was dispatched to Turkey and then to Brussels Belgium where the 16 nato countries Are scheduled to develop a blockade strategy. Historically the sense of brotherhood that permeates the Arab world makes it difficult for outside Powers like the United states to gain overt support from one country against another. That makes egyptian president Hosn Mubarak s decision to line up with Washington against Saddam s invasion of Kuwait All the More remarkable. Egypt by virtue of being the Only Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel already is held in special regard by the.. Administration. Mubarak also is the key . Conduit to the Palestine liberation organization in Baker s so far unsuccessful attempt to set up negotiations Between Israel and palestinian arabs. Cairo receives nearly $3 billion in an Nual assistance from the United states any reasonable request for additional economic or military help is Apt to get a sympathetic hearing at the White House and on Capitol Hill. If Iraq submits to pressure and with draws Jordan also will Benefit but under very different circumstances. Unlike Mubarak the jordanian Mon Arch King Hussein did not rally to the . Banner. In fact he disputed the Bush administration s assessment of the iraqi Leader. On aug. 4, As iraqi troops solidified their hold on Kuwait the King said it was premature for Arab countries to condemn the invasion. Hussein called the iraqi Leader a patriotic Man. Whatever motivated the King to deter to his More powerful neighbor Jor Dan offers Safe passageway irom Ira and 78 tourists most of them japanese exiled that Way on monday. And if under increasing pressure Saddam elects to seek a diplomatic Compromise height Well ask Jordan to play a Middle Man role. The third biggest gainer could be is Rael which understandably is maintain ing a Low profile As the United states marshals the forces to Stop Saddam. Nine years ago Israel destroyed Iraq Sonly nuclear facility in what Jerusalem described As a preemptive strike. In to Day s Middle East the israelis worry just As much about iraqi missiles and Chemi Cal weapons. But they May not be inclined to take the same political and diplomatic risk they chanced in june 1981 by leveling the Osiurak reactor near Baghdad. Normay Israel have to. The United states with infinitely More prestige than the Small jewish state could Ever Hope to Muster is leading a world Campaign against the iraqi Leader. Saddam s invasion of Kuwait could backfire against him in any number of ways All of them enhancing Israel s Secu Rity. Forcing him to withdraw would clip his wings. Although officials Are reluctant to discuss hypothetical situations military collision with Iraq conceivably could Lead to his ouster and a drastic change in the Security situation in the Middle East. A correspondent Barry Schweid covers tha stale do of
