European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - September 29, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Saturday september 29, 1990 the stars and stripes a a Page 9u.s. Index posts Sharp decline Oil prices Batter weak Economy Washington apr the governments main economic forecasting gauge in August Sank 1.2 percent in the Wake of the persian Gulf crisis the government said Friday. It was the steepest drop since the month following the 1987 Stock Market crash. The Commerce departments Index of leading economic indicators had been unchanged in the month prior to the aug. 2 iraqi invasion of Kuwait. Since then however an already sluggish Economy has shown signs of further weakening As Oil prices More than doubled slowing both sales and production. Both consumer Confidence and the Stock Market have also plunged. The August decline was the first in four months and the sharpest since a 1.4 percent fall in november 1987. The Dow Jones average of 30 Industrial stocks had plummeted 508 Points a month earlier on oct. 19. The 2.6 percent drop was the biggest percentage decline in Stock Market history. Other Stock indices also fell sharply the Index is designed to forecast economic activity six to nine months in Advance. Three consecutive declines in the gauge Are viewed As a fairly reliable a although not infallible a signal that the Economy is headed for a recession. A Survey of the nations top economic forecasters in late August and Early september showed they were growing More pessimistic about chances the Economy could avoid a recession in the next 12 months. In decl some believed the downturn already has begun. A up until now a Large majority of Nabe forecasters have expected the expansion to last through 1990 and 1991?�?� the National association of business economists said m a report on the Survey. A but this Prospect is now in jeopardy a it continued. A although the median forecast shows positive real growth in both 1990 and 1991, the Pace is slow enough to make two quarters of decline in a Row a the informal definition of recession a a distinct  seven of the Forward looking indicators dragged the Index under in August. The indicators measured declines in consumer Confidence Stock prices orders for new plants and equipment unfilled orders building permits and the Money Supply. One indicator measured a Rise in weekly unemployment claims. The Only positive contributors were slower business delivery times an increase in orders for consumer goods a longer workweek and an increase in the Price of raw materials. The various changes left the Index at 144.2 percent of its 1982 base of 100 and Down 0.4 percent from its level a year ago. If a recession can be avoided through november the economic expansion will have reached its eighth anniversary. It already is the nations longest in peacetime. And if it lasts until october 1991, it will set a new Overall record of . Economic growth surpassing the 106 months of continuing expansion Between february 1961 and december 1969. Just four months ago the Nabe Survey found that 82 percent of the 68 professional forecasters surveyed in april and May said the business expansion would continue through next year. But in answer to the question a what is the probability of a recession within the next 12 months a the new Survey found a the median probability of recession has jumped to 50 percent from prior readings which have been in the 20-30 percent  the latest Survey of 71 forecasters also found 60 percent anticipating a recession within three years. Of those 76 percent a believe it has already begun Fin the second or third Quarter or will begin imminently in the fourth Quarter or the first three months of 1991 a the report said. A of course information and conditions Are changing rapidly As this analysis is prepared a the Nabe economists said. Indeed on tuesday the same Day the Survey results were released the government sharply revised second Quarter economic growth Down from an annual rate of 1.2 percent to a barely perceptible 0.4 percent. But even before that change the Survey showed the forecasters already had shaved their estimate of economic growth for 1990 from 2.0 percent in May to 1.2 percent in August and for 1991 to 1.4 percent last month Down from 2.4 percent four months ago. Other highlights of the Survey projected a inflation As measured by the consumer Price Index would Rise 5.3 percent in 1990, compared to 4.7 percent in the pc Oil Price Shock poll. The 1991 forecast is for a 4.9 percent increase up from 4.3 percent in the May Survey. Inflation for All of 1989 was 4.6 percent. A the merchandise Trade deficit would improve from $109.4 billion in 1989 to $95 billion this year and $90 billion in 1991. A the Federal budget deficit would total $225 billion including the Cost of the savings and loan bailout in 1990 Ana $240 billion in 1991. The 1989 deficit was $152.0 billion. Two joggers run alongside a caravan of houses being moved to make room for a new shopping mall in Kent Ohio. The Home run houses were among 10 transported on route 261 this week in what was believed to be the largest number of Homes Ever moved at one time. A non profit organization bought the dwellings for resale to families with lower incomes. S. Korea building War museum Reagan gives Martinez help in election Orlando Fla. A former president Reagan urge the re election of gov. Bob Martinez at a $l,500-a-plate fund Raiser while the governors democratic rival spoke at a $1.50 hot dog rally at the county Fairgrounds. The glittery gop affair thursday night that featured a Western Motif was juxtaposed against Lawton Chiles Folksy get together which the former . Senator said was meant to show that a people Are More important than  a for a Dollar and a half you can have dinner with the next governor of Florida a Chiles said. A you done to have to pay $1,500 to see the next sex governor of Florida and the last president of the United  Reagan asked some 1,200 Republican faithful during his speech to a win just one More for the  a a it a up to All of us to assure that Bob Martinez can continue the Job he started a Reagan said. Reagan who had just returned from a trip to Europe and the soviet Union came to Orlando from his California Home to pay some old Campaign debts to Martinez. The governor was a Leader in the Reagan presidential campaigns and Florida delivered Large majorities in two elections. A Bob Martinez is the embodiment of the american dream a said Reagan recalling the governors Spanish ancestry. A there is no question that this race is important to Florida and the  the former president and Martinez recalled a july 1983 meeting in the Oval office when Martinez said a the convinced me to become a Republican. Without that visit i doubt very seriously that i would be standing Here As governor. The fund Raiser was expected to raise some $2 million for Martinez a Campaign. At the Central Florida Fairgrounds More than 300 attended the event for Chiles and running mate buddy Mackay. The Chiles Mackay ticket also was calling its rally a fund Raiser and was distributing cards for contributions up to the $100 individual limit it has set for the Campaign. Seoul South Korea apr president Roe Tae woo broke ground Friday for a $88 million museum dedicated to soldiers in the korean and Vietnam wars As Well As ancient conflicts dating Back thousands of years. The museum will be the country a first to Honor its service members. Roh a former general symbolically shovelled a Mound of Earth and said the museum will a glorify the heroic exploits of those deceased patriots who protected Freedom and democracy in this land and those warriors who fought at the risk of their  a in this Hall future generations will inscribe in their hearts How costly were the sacrifices their ancestors made to achieve a free and Happy country a the president said. About 400 people attended the ceremony including . Gen. Robert w. Riscassi top commander for 43,000 american troops stationed in South Korea. The museum a four Story reinforced Concrete Structure is being built on the site of the former South korean army Headquarters near the present Headquarters of the 8th . Army in Central Seoul. It is to be completed in 1992 and will be funded by the government. The building will include sections for the 1950-53 korean War and the Vietnam War in which South korean troops fought against Hanoi. It will also have displays on ancient wars and the growth of Outh koreans armed forces since 1948 when Korea regained Independence