European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - November 2, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 columns the stars and stripes Friday. November 2.1990tom Wicker both Saddam Bush need peaceful Way out president Bush and Secretary of state James a. Baker Iii Are trying As they must to bring maximum psychological pressure on Saddam Hussein to withdraw from Kuwait. The danger is that they May paint themselves into a Comer from which they can escape Only through a bloody and ill conceived War against Iraq. In separate speeches a Bush s at a Campaign rally in California a they delivered the same message a we will not Rule out a possible use of Force if Iraq continues to occupy  and both heightened the goosebumps effect with lurid tales of iraqi atrocities. Almost simultaneously however Mikhail Gorbachev declared flatly that a it is unacceptable to have a military solution to the Kuwait question Quot a a position that emphasizes a major weakness of War As a deliberate option. It would be a Western War primarily an american British War begun by a decision in Washington against an Arab nation or nations. That a because a calculated attack on Iraq almost certainly would make Saddam a Martyr As Well As a hero in the Arab world and shatter the East West third world Alliance that has made possible such an impressive collective Security Effort against further iraqi aggression soviet support would be sacrificed and that of even the Allied Arab nations could not be relied upon. King fahd of saudi Arabia Hafez Al Assad of Syria and Hosni Mubarak of Egypt no doubt want to see Saddam brought Down. That does not mean that the sentiments of their Arab populations would permit them to join in a Western War on another Arab nation. If they did popular opposition could prevent them from making a major military Effort or from sustaining it for months perhaps years. If Saddam responded to War by attacking Israel As he probably would other Arab nations would be far More Likely to join than oppose him. All that would be bad enough in itself. It also would dash the promising beginnings a its not too much to say the Bright Hope a of a Post cold War world in which the United states and the soviet Union would cooperate in International arrangements to maintain the peace. Such cooperation building on the remarkable collective Security Success already achieved under american leadership could Well be the most important result of the Middle East crisis a unless of course it ends in War directed from Washington. That War it should also be remembered would result in devastating casualties for . Forces the real possibility of a Long deadlock rather than a glorious Victory Domestic political division on the same scale As in the Vietnam years and disastrous financial and political diversions from far More pressing american problems at Home and in the world. But reasonable people ask if Saddam wont get out of Kuwait How can his aggression be allowed to stand and How can the Issue be negotiated without in some Way rewarding him for that aggression  negotiation amount to appeasement no. To leave open a line of Retreat for an opponent to make Compromise possible for him is not necessarily to Reward him. If Saddam believes he has no alternative except ignominious surrender a which an unconditional withdrawal from Kuwait certainly would be a War might be preferable to him. But if he knows through Arab channels that withdrawal could bring about whatever he and other Arab leaders could agree upon to address his legitimate complaints a and he has some a the continuing pressures of Boycott and embargo might cause him to seek such an end to this confrontation on the saudi Border. The Way then would be open for collective Security efforts to contain any threat of future iraqi aggression even to impose International controls against iraqi development of nuclear and other exotic weapons. Impractical no More so than the Alliance Bush already has assembled in the desert particularly if the United states and the soviet Union stand together in the Effort. As for the ghosts of appeasement this is not 1939. Iraq is not nazi Germany Saddam is not Hitler and George Bush need be neither Chamberlain nor Churchill. Saddam needs to be convinced of american resolve but he is not the Only one who needs a line of Retreat too much presidential talk about waging War May persuade too Many americans that War is not Only inevitable but necessary. It May leave Bush no other Way out of a Corner he painted himself into. C new York times George will democrats theories Wither under scrutiny George Bush is reeling around the ring groggy from a devastating flurry of Hooks to is solar plexus and uppercuts to his Chin punches thrown by himself. But before concluding that he is Ripe for a knockout in 1992, remember what made him president. In one word it was Dukakis. In nine words the democrats combination of moral smugness and intellectual felonies. This combination is on display today. Unaccustomed to Success and inebriated by it and construing Bush a pratfalls As proof of their cleverness democrats Are trumpeting three ideas that do not stand scrutiny. At least not scrutiny of the sort administered by the House wednesday group a by invitation association of 39 republicans in collaboration with republicans on the ways and Means committee. They Are generally moderate conservatives. They Are chaired by Ohio a rep. Bill Gradison who represents Cincinnati and they dispose of the democrats ideas As briskly As the reds disposed of the athletics. Gradison a people prove there is a better defense of the Republican record in the 1980s than the current Republican president has managed to make. The democrats first idea is that the huge deficits Are the results of the 1981 Reagan tax cuts. Actually revenues were  trillion More in the 1980s in constant 1990 dollars than they would have been if the 1980 Federal tax collections had been changed Only to reflect inflation. Federal revenues in 1990 Are More than one third higher in real terms than in 1980. Revenues in 1990 will be More than 19 percent of Gross National product for the fourth consecutive year. This is the first time in by Story including the a Garrison state years of 1942-45, that the tax take has been so High for so Long. Federal receipts for 1941-46 As a percentage of Gnu were 7.7,10.3,13.7, 21.7,21.3,18.5. The democrats second idea is that Federal spending especially for social programs was slashed in the 1980s. Actually there was dramatic spending growth including spending for social programs. If spending had not increased Over 1980 Levels it would have been $1,9 trillion less than it actually was. Spending increased one third in real terms. Of the $1.9 trillion about 46 percent went to social Security medicare income Security and health programs. The democrats third idea is that Rich families got extraordinary Breaks while poor and Middle class families were saddled with a heavier Burden of the nations taxes. It is True that effective tax rates for the Rich were Cut from 27.3 percent to 25.8 while rates for the Bottom fifth Rose from 8.4 to 9.7 percent and the rates of the next two fifths also Rose from 15.7 to 16.7 percent and 20 to 20.3 percent respectively. But the Rich the top fifth today pay 58.1 percent of All Federal tax revenues up from 55.7 percent in 1980, and every income group other than the top fifth pays a smaller or equal share. In 1980, the top fifth paid 35 times the total paid by the lowest fifth. Today they pay 36 times. Today As in 1980, the lowest fifth pay just 1.6 percent of the Federal revenues. After the Reagan cuts of income tax rates in 1981, there were eight other significant tax measures in the 1980s. The most important was the tax Reform act of 1986. By cutting rates it radically com dressed the tax codes progressively. But y the compensatory closing of loopholes it caused the wealthy to pay More income taxes. It also increased the tax Bill of the wealthy by increasing corporate taxes ten years ago the top fifth paid 66 percent of Federal income taxes today they pay 72 percent. The top 5 percent pay less of their income in income taxes Down from 22.2 percent to 18.9but pay a larger share of the Federal income tax take up from 36 percent to 44.1. The share of the top 1 percent is up from 18.2 percent to 25.4. If Only the income tax is considered the Federal share paid by the top 10 percent Rose 16 percent in the decade the share by the Middle class and poor fell 19 percent. Today the top 10 percent pay significantly More than half of All Federal income taxes the Bottom 50 percent pay Only 6 percent. True progressivity is less pronounced when the increases in the regressive social Security tax Are factored in. But most democrats supported these increases and most democrats opposed a democrats Pat Moynihan a recent attempt to Cut them. By the Way although the president is out begging the country to defeat democrats a democrats who made possible the passage of the budget package the president supported a the wednesday groups members voted 21-18 against that package. Forgive the president his confusion. He is understandably punchy. C Washington Post writers group