European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - December 12, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse Page 10 a the St aps and stripes wednesday. December 12. 1990 Anthony Lewis hostage release signals Start of president Bush there can be no negotiation with Iraq and that i the threat of War remains High. When \ Saddam Hussein decided to release his hostages flush said a peaceful solution was no closer with americans out of the Way he said it would in fact be easier to make War on Iraq. Hut negotiation has already started. There is every reason to think it will go on. And that makes War distinctly less Likely. .1 think about Secretary of state Baker s meeting with Saddam in Baghdad whenever it is finally scheduled. Is Baker going to come Back saying the meeting was a total failure that War is now the Only option if Saddam were intransigent refusing to talk about withdrawal from Kuwait then Baker might Well come Back with such a message. And Bush would then have More Public support for War. But the iraqi dictator knows All that. I a has already shown that he can read american feelings and can move to avoid Quot danger to himself. One reason he decided to release the hostages was surely to re move one cuss Belli. In meeting Baker he will be quite aware that to avoid War to has to give ground on Kuwait. It seems to me Likely therefore that Maddahi will Tell Baker that Iraq is withdrawing from Kuwait a but that he needs. Assurances on som Points. For example he could announce a withdrawal in stages �?~1stnge one has already begun or Sec Clary. Our troops began pulling out at 5 this morning. But it will take time arid there Are Security problems. Before finally leaving we need to know when american forces will leave saudi Arabia who will maintain Security in Kuwait and when sanctions on us will in Saddam makes that kind of statement is Baker going to refuse a Dis a Cussion is he going to come out of the meeting and say that Iraq has not net the demand Lor unconditional withdrawal from Kuwait so there must be War a the truth is that there would much american support for a War in such a see Nario. Nor would there he much if Saddam did what Many think he May do withdraw from All of Kuwait except two islands at Iraq s outlet to the persian Gulf and pm Waits portion of a disputed Oil Field. A William Safi re the latest is were 6ettmtw0 More pm Vlf another vols Mhz High level off Ktal and three More reasons Why we re Here Baker was asked sunday on the Abc news program a this week with David Brinkley Quot whether it would be credible to threaten War Over the islands and Oil Field. He answered yes a to say anything else would be to Reward an but the real world is not like that and Baker knows it. Americans arc deeply divided Over the possibility of War with Iraq As it is. Can one imagine Bush trying to take the country into War Over the islands and Oil Field there arc other ways to Deal with the Border questions. The United nations could keep sanctions on Iraq s Oil exports until its withdrawal was Complete. Or the Border issues could be put by Mutual consent to a Legal tribunal of some kind. Those Are matters for diplomacy and of course there will be diplomacy a not just Baker looking Saddam in the Eye and delivering an ultimatum. In fact the diplomacy has started. Earlier Baker gave Assurance that american forces would not attack Iraq if it left Kuwait last week he emphasized that Iraq and Kuwait can discuss their differences on such issues As the Border after . A a / ,. A a we Are already involved in the negotiation process a former Secretary of state Cyrus Vance told the Boston Globe. Vance called for an International conference on the Middle East to discuss Security arrangements for the Region after Quot this crisis ends. He said it should consider among other things iraqis nuclear capacity arms sales to All countries in the Region and the palestinian question. The conference idea is a prickly one for the Bush administration because of israeli objections to International consideration of the palestinian question. But the United states has a Strong interest in reducing instability in the Middle East and Baker has already said that Security must be dealt with after the crisis. If the. A Promise of a future conference would help to end the crisis would americans prefer War Bush no doubt feels he must keep the pressure on by making warlike noises. Bub if Iraq does withdraw even with conditions he will surely want to give priority to rebuilding Kuwait a and leave the rest to diplomacy. Newy ofttimes a Inion to. Harpers Terry . Or never mind telling your children where babies come from. Instead give them news they can use like where Public opinion comes from. I revved up the old satellite dish behind the woodshed last weekend to watch Back to Back food for thought fights a l of my colleagues in a Seix ing heated up opinions before they got cold again. A Only once were they caught a opinionated w Hen the self mockingly bombastic John Mclaughlin presented the unfamiliar Issue of the a Trobo Deer Quot a lifelike target device some game wardens use to. Lure poachers and other illegal Hunters. Was this humane Law enforcement or shifty entrapment the panellists a accustomed to t he easy issues of War recession empowerment and dismemberment a were caught Dlf guard and floundered helplessly laughing it off As frivolous unworthy of Niedria Biggie punditry. A of course it was the most challenging question of the Day because it required the formation of a fresh opinion not a past column and microwaved to fever pitch but minted at the moment filtered through Point of View political philosophy and the lust for intellectual conformity or the thrill of cont arianism. More interesting than my opinion about the use of robot Deer in Hunter Hunting is the formation thereof. How do we a and How should Vve a erect our set of beliefs How do we form a specific opinion Mark Twain at the turn of this Century quoted a perceptive former slave on this subject a you Tell me. Liar a Man gits his Corn a Bike in ill Tell you what his a pinions is a. A a /. The writer interpreted this As a a Man is not Independent and cannot afford views which might interfere with his bread and butter. He must restrict himself to Corn Pone opinions a at least on the surface. He must get his opinions from Oiler people. I be must reason out none for himself. He must have no firsthand views a Twain took that pocketbook pressure toward Confor mily a step further to a sentimental need to be a person who a a can to Bear to be in Disfavour can to endure the averted face and the cold shoulder wants to stand Well with his friends. To hear the precious words. A he son the right track a a is that valid today to a degree yes self interest and the yearning for peer approval Are undiminished. But a refinement has been added which professor Paul Lazarsfeld a generation ago called the two step theory of communication we tend to draw our beliefs not from Distant pulpits Ami lecterns but from local opinion leaders people we know and Trust on matters of politics fashion culture or morality. A today the dancing to Lazarsfeld a iwo step has an added twist. As political leaders tend to play it Safe and consult polls before taking positions More people ire turning to a of the opinion mafia a in Arthur Schlesinger phrase those must Medri commentators who Are ready to Pound beliefs into shape while the Iron of controversy and crisis is red hot newspaper syndication Cable to Book and lecture Tours and Magazine crossbreeding have a energized them end of olympian detachment a us into local personalities celebrated As the Shock troops of argument glad to be gladiators almost certifiable in Pur certitude. Our bundle of beliefs on our backs we ring a or Bells through the streets crying �?�1 Cash controversy and we sometimes affect not merely reflect Public opinion. That Means we in the no Dodge Dodge must ask ourselves How do we form our opinions wrong Way to form opinion mental set source payoff knee Jerk whatever ism sense of tide direction segment support role to play. Flee right Way application of principle and experience to new situation a Independence originality Loy most of All mind Over gut. None of us Are Pef Leet including those who insist a a none always be construed As singular / /. A a a. A. Now i m ready patellar reflex under control red Bunting Cap on my head with a coolly considered pm Ion about the entrapment of poachers the Law must obey the Law and the a Trobo Deere perverts the proper enforcement of Hunting restrictions Quot. A we All do no end of feeling a wrote Twain Quot and Vve mistake it for thinking. And out of it we Uri Ugi Tega lion which we consider a Boon it s name is Sublie pm Jpn it is held in reverence. It settles everything Home hunk it the voice of a r Quot Quot. Quot c new York times Quot
