European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - February 19, 1991, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Tuesday february 19, 1,991 the stars and stripes Page 13 commentary Thomas l. Friedman strip away the condition the flowery language and the hoopla surrounding the latest iraqi peace overture and what you Are left with is a Core fact iraqi president Saddam Hussein flinched More than six months after invading Kuwait and after a month of pounding by an International army Saddam finally uttered the word a withdrawal a to be sure he surrounded that Concession with a Forest of conditions designed As much to disguise his weakness As to probe what sort of payoff he might be Able to get for giving Back that which he never should have taken. But a Concession it was. Nevertheless it is far too Early  this the beginning of the end of. The crisis. It is a new phase a though in which Saddam a steely gaze has Given Way to a certain groping for the exit. ,.it is instructive at this turning Point to reflect on the reasons for the iraqi overture because Saddam a offer punctured Many myths about this conflict and spoke Man unintended truths. The first myth is the one peddled by various Middle East experts that Saddam believes he can win by losing a that even if he is driven out of Kuwait in a ground War All he has to do is inflict thousands of casualties on the coalition forces and he will be hailed As a hero at Home and in the Arab world f6r having defied the West. No one seems to appreciate what nonsense that is More than Saddam. He knows you done to get to be a hero by elegantly losing. You get to be George c. Custer or at Best Gamal Abdel Nasser after the 1967 War when his stature was radically diminished. Saddam seemed to be telling the world he understands that having ruined his country a Economy put its armed forces through a meat grinder and isolated Iraq As an outlaw state he More than Ever needs something to show for it. No one needs to explain to him that one does no to retire gracefully As the Leader of Iraq there is no Santa Barbara on the euphrates. The Law of the land is Rule or die and unless he brings something Back from this War he Wil indeed be in peril. The image of Iraq As a Battle hardened Warrior state is also largely a myth. For the most part its eight year War with Iran took place on battlefields far from Baghdad and other cities. Quot thanks to iraqi Oil Money and Arab Gulf Aid life went on normally in Iraq throughout its War with Iran and a new and relatively pampered Middle class was even born. Iraq was never an austere North Vietnam and it has never been asked to withstand the Levels of deprivation now being meted out. This is one Way to explain the wish list Saddam attached to his peace overture a including a demand that Leslie  sign of weakness Rau its Moc Wumbs Welws 01 synd pm \/%4 an iraqi Pul lout be linked to an israeli pullout from the occupied territories and a demand that the countries participating in the War against Iraq must a undertake to rebuild what the aggression has  president Bush dismissed that list As a Quot cruel hoax a a and added for Good measure that the iraqi people should now try to oust Saddam. Another thing the iraqi Leader s overture highlights is that the course of Battle and not anything that happens around a negotiating table will define both this conflict and its aftermath. He clearly i Jade this offer because he is losing the Battle on the ground. The bombing of a hardened shelter in Baghdad in which several Hundred iraqi civilians were hiding was a tragic event and one the iraqis tried to exploit in order to generate sympathy. But it is important to a distinguish Between How the iraqi leadership wants the West to think about that tragic bombing and How they themselves probably thought about it. It had to have been a sobering event or As one senior administration official put it Quot done to forget that was Only one of several command bunkers we hit that night. The message to the iraqi leadership was that 10 feet of Concrete did t protect  1 in other wools it probably was not a coined Deriee the iraqi overture signed by the entire revolutionary t of Mand Council came less than 4n hours alter that bombing. A. Iho now York Timon Bush erred in response to Saddam s offer Saddam Hussein with his conditional offer to leave Kuwait finally concedes that he cannot win a military Victory but still angles for a political one. George Bush with his Call for iraqis to dump their dictator finally reveals he will not  with military Success and that he intends to deny his adversary a postwar political Triumph As Well. Ridding Iraq of Saddam is surely the Correct ultimate aim. If he were to survive the War As a hero he would be like a giant Sta ship emitting  death rays infinitely More lethal than any of the look alike henchmen who might replace him. A frontal assault on Saddam will not work. President Bush should let pressure for his departure occur naturally As a byproduct of War and negotiations. But he made several avoidable mistakes last week in Pursuit of his Quarry and could be heading toward other miscues. Saddam caught everyone off guard on Friday with Quot his highly contaminated statement about withdrawal from Kuwait. Although it was peppered with obscure Arab verbs and linked to a Host of unacceptable conditions it still ignited Sparks of Hope. Bush did w Ell to characterize the package As Quot a cruel hoax and deflate unfounded and divisive optimism. But Marlin fit water the White House spokesman ran to the podium too quickly and erred in saying that the statement contained nothing new. Of course there was something new. For the first time Baghdad hinted it would comply with 11.n. Resolution 660 and withdraw from Kuwait. Some aides intercepted Bush before his Early morning speech and told him so. But Bush a corrective did not go far enough. ,. He ended up saying that there was Quot nothing new Here with the possible exception of the withdrawal Point. When the dust settles Sych grudging talk might damage Bush a Well earned credibility. It could also look like unseemly Over eagerness to discard any peace overture and simply get on with the War. Other coalition partners such As Canada reacted much More smartly simply noting that the withdrawal Point was new but that it was tied to old and new conditions rejected by the United nations. Bush a aides were also surprised on Friday to hear him invite the iraqi military and people Quot to take matters into their own hands a and rid themselves of their accursed dictator. Although that mirrors the private senti ments of almost All National leaders no one wants to be accused of creating new objectives exceeding the . Mandate and prolonging the War. Bush a indiscretion was doubly unwise because he did it gratuitously. He had no intelligence information to suggest a receptive military audience in Iraq lie Only hoped there might be one. The president could make yet another misstep away from w Here he wants to go if lie orders a ground attack now in the face of the current round of iraqi iranian soviet diplomacy. To listen to High Bush administration officials that is precisely what their Boss still has in mind and what they themselves still believe is Best. Perhaps they will feel otherwise alter monday s scheduled meeting Between Mikhail Gorbachev and the iraqi foreign minister. Tariq Aziz can be expected to use his visit to make the new iraqi Oiler More palatable. Bush will look like the villain if he rushes into land Battle before this a peace game Quot has played out. The United states will need the world s full Faith and credit to hold the coalition together and. Man Euver Saddam from Power. The trick is to keep moving in that i Reed Ion never making his ouster an explicit aim of policy nailing Down Lough agreements at each stage of talks then moving on to set new and reasonable requirements never overloading the bargaining  Saddam is really Angling for a ceasefire and will buy an unconditional and total withdrawal agree to it. But insist that his forces Clear the mine Fields and leave heavy weapons behind. Meanwhile maintain the full Trade embargo against Iraq. It is essential to fulfilling the second part of the . Resolution requiring the restoration of stability in the Gulf. Persian end the embargo Only alter Iraq agrees to reduce the size of its armed a orcs destroy its nuclear and chemical weapons stockpiles and related facilities and Grant the United nations inspection rights. These Tough and reasonable demands might help iraqis Wake up to the fact that their maximum Leader has squandered their lives and resources in two self aggrandizing and unwinnable wars and help them to do the right thing. T c thu  Yirk Mius