European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - February 28, 1991, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Thursday february 28, 1991 the stars and stripes Youssef m. Ibrahim Page 13 commentary turmoil lies ahead in As they gaze beyond the Clouds of the Gulf War toward the future Many Arab officials and commentators see More questions than answers and a great Deal of bad news ahead. From Casablanca to Riyadh supporters and opponents of iraqi president Saddam Hussein believe beyond doubt now that he has lost the War the fighting Power of his army and any aspirations of leading the Arab world even if he comes out of the War clinging to his office in Baghdad. Whereas this May be great news now for staunch opponents of Saddam such As King fahd of saudi Arabia and president Hosni Mubarak of Egypt there is nothing in it to guarantee them a secure future. In articles and commentaries throughout the Arab world the common themes Range from pessimistic to cataclysmic. The prognosis goes like this the iraqi nation is Likely to be a bankrupt bitter leaderless country loaded with some $100 billion in debt and deprived of its infrastructure by the weeks of intensive bombing. Allegiance has been assured for two decades by a ruthless militaristic police state headed by the baath socialist party with Saddam at its head. As this machinery crumbles the country could Well revert to tribal sectarian and familial alliances and bloodshed As old accounts Are settled. Another Point of agreement is that claiming the Mantle of leadership in the Middle East a a step taken Over the last 40 years by leaders from Egypt Iran Iraq and Algeria and even by saudi arabians a is no longer an option. P a there is no such thing As a leading Arab or Mideast state any More a says added Dawisha who teaches politics at George Mason University in Fairfax va., and is spending a year in Egypt. A no one is Able to play a role similar to that of America in this crisis. When the americans go rulers will have to get up on stage and face the music. Do it at a time when All arabs know their leaders  either boastful liars when they vowed to stand up to America or that they were helpless weaklings who hid behind the United states to fight Saddam. A was for Saddam a Dawisha went on to say a the will be widely seen As a loser even if sentiments Are running High for him now among some arabs. It will be like the egyptian defeat of 1967 by Israel which ended the myth of Egypt and its leadership of the Arab world Long before Nasser  / Arab leaders already know their biggest problem will be to justify the legitimacy of their Rule. Ever since Kuwait was invaded the single theme on which David Broder Mats mom with is picture Arab writers and commentators in the Arab Media have almost unanimously agreed on has been the need for democracy and Freedom. Egypt a key Arab ally of the United suites that has always aspired to Chart the Way for the arabs future is hobbled by its crumbling Economy a and what is seen As the uninspired leadership of Mubarak. And Syria is the least Likely of the Maljor Arab countries to play any big role because it is the country most distrusted by the Arab members of the anti iraqi coalition. In North Africa Algeria Tunisia and Morocco Are widely seen to have Given Iran what support they did largely because they believed their islamic and secular opponents at Home were using the Gulf crisis to Challenge their Rule. And in the Arab cast Jordan and Yemen stand to emerge As losers whose leaders will get Little sympathy from the Arab members of the anti iraqi coalition a a position driven to a very Large degree by the personal animosities that have so deeply taken hold among Arab leaders. Indeed lie cutting insults trailed Over open airwaves in the last six months Between Saddam King Hussein of Jordan president Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen and Yasser Arafat on one Side and Mubarak King fall and kuwaiti officials on the other Are enough to Poison Arab politics Lor years to come. In a commentary on the interminable Arab feuds of the last 70 years the weekend Magazine of the French newspaper be Figaro quoted one expert on the Middle East Jean Baptiste Duro scale As simply concluding that for the arabs the Only sure thing is that a the future is  c new York time Cheney s balance proving a National asset at the heart of the Pentagon in the final 24 hours of the countdown to the land War in Kuwait a remarkable Calm prevailed. A visitor to the office of Secretary of defense Dick Cheney found no More scurrying or tension than in an insurance company Headquarters. The 50-year-old former congressman Long ago Learned How to assert authority without shouting. Since the persian Gulf deployment began almost seven months ago Cheney has taken Only two Days off for a visit to his parents in Wyoming and a spot of skiing at Jackson Hole. 1he has demonstrated the qualities that led president Ford to pick him As White House chief of staff when he was Only 34 and his colleagues in the House to jump him Over Many senior republicans into a Ever bigger leadership posts Quot. What they saw in Cheney was an emotional balance and a mental discipline remarkable for anyone in the ego Ridden and risk strewn Field of government. It is hard to imagine another Secretary of de. Sense who would have stolen an hour irom Friday s countdown to the climactic Battle in order to answer questions from several Hundred High school students in Washington for a president classroom program introducing them to the Workings of the Federal government. ,. A i used to speak to the group when i it As a congressman a Cheney told me a few hours hiter a and i enjoyed it. Besides the Guy running the thing is Ajo or a Mer constituent a a doctor from or. A a a non Veteran who makes Clear How much he values the military judgment of Gen. Colin Powell the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff Cheney has a Strong View amut the Impact of the Gulf War on the armed services a and on the country y a a there a no question to fat operation desert shield and do amp Ert storm has transformed the Pulme thinking about the United states military a he said. A i think the country been tremendously impressed with the capability. Of the it e. When you have Day after Day and hour after Htwar repetition of the television coverage of our people out there in the Gulf it s  one tremendous piece of advertising for the United states military and the people who serve in  beyond the Pride in the people serving in the Gulf Cheney pointed to he performance of the weapons and equipment they Are using. A its american a he said. A it works. It works Damn Well. And i hink people Are truly and deeply proud of what we be accomplished. A a it a not Over yet and in a very much aware of that a he said in the next breath. But despite that caution Cheney said that a potentially the a Gulf War could bring a a fundamental transformation in attitudes. A a it a one of. Those watershed events just As Vietnam was a watershed event in american politics and for the american military. Its a Benchmark against which we will measure ourselves in years to  Fords chief of staff and As a congressman Cheney spoke often about a the legacy of  he worried that the Vietnam War had bred a crippling Public cynicism about the presidency and the Pentagon and had planted unjustified doubts about the motives of the United states worldwide and its capacity to counter hostile forces outside its Borders. Now he seemed to be saying All that was in the past. But Cheney is too Well balanced to lapse into jingoism. The Man who cashiered the air Force chief of staff and cancelled the Navy a a-12 bomber said a i think caution Isth order on becoming the worlds policeman. A a Phis happens to be one of those times when it is justified to. Send american forces into combat to achieve important Naii Opal objectives. But they Are very rare. I just because we do it successfully this once it does no to mean we should therefore assume that it so something we  to fall Back on automatically As the easy answer to International problems in the future. 5 a we have to remember that we done to have a dog in every fight that we done to want to get involved in every single conflict. By the same Token to the extent that we be been Able to demonstrate our ability to do it successfully i think we give an enormous boost to the credibility of the United states government for a Long time to come. A when we say we Are interested in guaranteeing the Security of a Friend or an ally it will a by Golly a mean something. There wont be any doubt in anybody a mind about the United states willingness and ability to keep those commitments. But again caution is the  \ iie4ias sent that message not Only to exultant proponents of military spending but to those on the other flank who would press for deeper defense cuts than mandated by last years budget agreement. Those cuts require that Cheney reduce the Active duty forces by 521,0 ii troops a the equivalent of the desert storm deployment a in the next five years. Anything More he argues would entail deep risks. In years ahead As in the past seven months the balance Cheney brings to his. Job will be a National asset. A a it we i it his Futon Mubi Rita s g Oija