European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - March 21, 1991, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 4 a the stars and stripes thursday March 21, 1991 in the Gulf Saddam duped by Iran officials say by Youssefi. Ibrahim the new York time Kuwait a senior kuwaiti officials and Arab and foreign diplomats who base their statements on intelligence reports say Iran has been embarking on a methodical Campaign to unseat Saddam Hussein and replace him with a Friendly government. Iran also has Long sought to avenge itself against the iraqi Leader for the Iran Iraq War. Kuwaiti officials and foreign diplomats say 30,000 iraqi shiites Are now taking part in the Southern revolt principally in the iraqi cities 6f Basra Karbala and since feb. 28, when Iraq withdrew from Kuwait and Allied forces occupied part of Southern Iraq Iraq has battled two insurgencies the Southern rebellion and one led by kurd in the North. A there is no doubt at All that Iran is deeply involved in the insurrection in the South of Iraq a said ambassador Hans Wilhm Long a of Norway one of the most experienced foreign envoys in Kuwait. Until about Lodas ago Iran had appeared relatively sympathetic to Iraq restoring diplomatic ties and giving Safe Haven to iraqi Jet fighters that ended on March 8, when president Hashemi a Sfanjani of Iran denounced Saddam and called on him to resign. Kuwaiti officials and experts on Iran say that through the months Iraq repeatedly misread iranian motives seeking Iran a support for iraqi claims on Kuwait even As Iran plotted against Saddam organizing training and ultimately infiltrating rebels into Iraq. A senior kuwaiti who asked not to be identified said the iraqi rebels were virtually All shiites opposed to the Saddam government dominated by sunni muslims. A i think Iran is taking its revenge in the Cleverest Way for the War Saddam waged against it a the official said. A they have played the iraqis so skilfully leading them from one miscalculation to  think Iran is taking its revenge in the Cleverest Way for the War Saddam waged against it. Unnamed senior kuwaiti official officials Here say iraqis miscalculation began last. Year when Saddam offered Iran concessions including the return of iranian territory seized during the eight year War in Exchange for a peace treaty. After Iran accepted Saddam proposed that the two forge an  a a a a a a Vav Quot a this iraqi offer was turned Down by Iran which communicated Saddam a plan to Kuwait. The Arab experts gave this picture of the iraqi Effort to woo iranian support and of Iran a counter moves the head of the iranian National Security Council Hassan Rushani told senior Arab officials that the iranian leadership received a warning about the invasion in the form of a secret message from Saddam who said that a certain events would take place in the Region which Iran should not interpret negatively. The message also said that soon after those a a events take place the situation would Clear up and both Iraq and Iran would emerge As the dominant Powers in the Region at which Point they can proceed to regulate the affairs of the persian Gulf in a partnership. A the message coincided with the increasing threats to Kuwait which began to come from Iraq last May. After the invasion tank Aziz the iraqi foreign minister asked the iranian leadership not to participate in the Boycott and to help Iraq Market its Oil in return for reaching a a strategic  among the offers extended by Iraq were the establishment of a a secret economic cooperation Council Between the countries while Iran continued to officially adhere to the , embargo. Iraq also pledged to pay Iran at least $25 billion in reparations for damage done in the eight year War. While remaining noncommittal the iranians passed on the details of the offer to Kuwait. According to several accounts  that it will help Iran in its economic reconstruction plans and in its Effort to secure Loans from the West. In the meantime Iran had decided that Iraq was wrong in calculating that the invasion would stand. In the analysis Given by Rushani iranian leaders calculated that Iraq would fail to recruit Arab and Muslim countries to its Side and that it would also fail to drag Israel into a War with it thus the iranians believed that iraqis Effort to mobilize the sympathy of Arab and Muslim countries was bound to fail. Worried that its calculations were beginning to fall apart the iraqi leadership dispatched the Deputy commander of the revolutionary Council to Iran in january at the head of a delegation of senior officials. A the delegation failed to win iranian support arid was told bluntly that the iranians disagreed with its calculations and that Iraq was heading for trouble if it did not reconsider its invasion of Kuwait. That cold message was reinforced in a speech Given by the iranian president a Sfanjani in which he said iraqis a aggression had Cost Iran $600 billion and that the iraqi shelling had completely destroyed 15 cities and 1,200 villages in Iran from 1980 to 1988. But Iraq persisted in its attempt to win Iran Over to its Side. Among these were the sending of iraqi War planes to take Refuge in Iran in the Hope that the Allied air forces would pursue them Over iranian air space thus setting off an Braman reaction. Experts say revolt by kurd not enough to topple Saddam the waiting game . Marines pass the time in a variety of ways while they wait in line for the Exchange to open in Jubal saudi Arabia. Many of the troops Are in a waiting Mode As they stand by for further duty in the Gulf or prepare to return Home. By the new York times the unrest in iraqi Kurdistan is the most serious anti government revolt in that Region in almost two decades but it alone is unlikely to topple pics Dent Saddam Hussein of Iraq experts say. Military and political analysts inside and outside the Bush administration agree that the rebellion by the kurd non arabs who make up about 20 percent of iraqis population could be an important Factor in weakening Saddam a government. But no kurdish revolt has Ever brought Down an iraqi government since the nation gained Independence from Britain in 1932, although an inability to quash rebellions contributed to the overthrow of a number of governments before the baath party came to Power in 1.968. This kurdish rebellion is different from others in that the Baghdad government has been further weakened by iraqis humiliating military defeat in Kuwait the nation s desperate economic situation the continuing unrest in Southern Iraq and the allies refusal to let Iraq use what remains of its air Power against rebels. A we have seen kurdish rebellions Over and Over and Over again but never in the context of such a weak Central govern mint a said Graham Fuller senior political scientist at the Rand corp. A a it a not the fact of the uprising but the context in which it is taking place that gives it half a  the situation in Kurdistan could become More serious if foreign govern ments Send significant amounts of arms a a a a. Sis a and Money to the kurd As they did in the 1970s. Bush administration officials said tuesday that Iran was sending arms across the Border both to kurdish guerrillas in the North and shiite1 Muslim re Buls in the South. A there is some support some arms from Iran a one administration official said. A is it a major Supply operation the answer is  the kurd were also heartened last week when president Turgut Ozal of Turkey reversing a policy of half a Century announced that his government had opened contacts with iraqi kurdish leaders opposed to Saddam. Senior turkish officials said after the announcement that Turkey would Send humanitarian Aid to the kurd and was considering a kurdish request to serve As a conduit for arms