European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - April 4, 1991, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Thursdays april 41991 the stars and stripes . Rosenthal Pago 13 commentary Bush should ignore bureaucrats to Aid rebels Why has president Bush rejected his own human and military instinct to prevent Saddam Hussein a gunship helicopters from massacring iraqi rebels Why when a White House order would have grounded them and the larger mystery Why has the United states turned its Back on the rebels after the president repeatedly urged the iraqi people to get rid of Saddam themselves a a a a everywhere americans ask those questions. Bush has not yet favored them with his answer. But it can be found if we look inward into the mistakes and fears of . Policy. Once again America is trying to Stop the future from unfolding because it is afraid of and does hot know How to Deal with what it May bring. This has been True about the soviet Union. Now we see it in the Mideast. A once again the United states born of the passion for democracy and change under Freedom has shown that it does not have the stomach for the risk that both involve. Lets junk the deliberately misleading argument that simply preventing massacres of the rebels would be intervention in the Quicksand. It was not intervention when we ordered fixed Wing iraqi planes grounded and shot Down a couple to make the Point. \ \ v t a a a.  Why is it suddenly evil to use our moral political and military Power to sex tend the order to gunships a yes and to Saddam a tanks the truth is that by betraying the rebels the United states is truly intervening a on the Side of the killer Saddam. Bush has not developed a fondness for Saddam. He wants him out or dead. But something happened to Bush on the Way to carrying Blit his instincts and promises 1 he bureaucracy happened. A. The foreign Dolick bureaucracy has shown repeatedly that its Only real passion is for the status quo. And most . Diplomats i have met do not consider promoting human rights and democracy As important foreign policy goals or National interests. Leslie h. Gelb the exceptions whom i Admire deeply know that the generality is True. Ear too Many diplomats american and foreign suffer from professional distortion. They Are captives of their specialities. In april Glass part a embarrassing testimony to sen airs she showed that to this Day Sho Tow just understand that it was not Saddam who was a a stupid but the state department for fantasizing that he could be wheeled or bought into Friendship. A problem is once they have been proved wrong a As in appeasement of Saddam a bureaucrats stay on the Job tirelessly trying to justify the error by perpetuating it. Y former bureaucrats often have a Way of using new platforms in Academia print to International business think tanks and foreign paid lobbies to do the same thing. / y traditional american bureaucratic support of the status quo sometimes comes from political infantilism a paralysing fear of the unknown. It can be passed on to presidents like some psychic disease. A y american fear of life without Mikhail Gorbachev leads Washington to cling to him desperately Long after soviet citizens have adjusted to the idea with anticipation. Y a a y. Quo the status quo argument on Iraq is that the rebels May break up the country. The kurd would demand a separate country and the shiites would come under iranian domination but the kurd have said they will not demand Independence. They might jump at what the israelis have offered palestinians a elections and substantial self government. And by condemning iraqi shiites to Slaughter by Saddam the . Guarantees that they will never have any place to turn but Iran Washington says Saddam will go one Day. Maybe. But this is certain the betrayal by the United states will not be forgotten by rebels anywhere. Anyway were americans sent into combat against Saddam so that Washington should now help him keep together the Jigsaw country sawed out of the Middle East by the British after world War i a a t a presidents Job is to listen to bureaucrats the steer his own course. Bush earned american thanks by doing that in the persian Gulf War. But for the unite states lasting Honor duty and self interest a est on Freedom supported democracy fostered pledges kept. Or. Bush what have you done for us lately. A c Tho now York Utmos a a a can up own americans Are appalled by the spectacle of iraqi forces slaughtering kurd and shiites. And americans instinctively favor giving these people their own homelands. But before skewering president Bush for not throwing . Military Power into iraqis civil War lets be dear and honest about a few matters. First stopping Saddam Hussein a forces is not a simple question of shooting Down iraqi aircraft and helicopters it would require . Military intervention a a probably on a Large scale and for a Long time with Uncertain results. Y. _. A. Second if a kurdish Homeland in Northern Iraq also Means a shiite Muslim state in the South that arrangement spells nothing but trouble for the United states and its friends. American interests do not always Call for fostering National self-determination1, y third new nation states inside the old Iraq Are not skely to be democratic. Most probably they will be dictatorships that will victimize their own countrymen terrorize the. Intrigue Leir own new minorities and invite foreign the Issue Here is not Saddam Hussein. Bush will not rest until that monster is gone and he will be gone. The Issue is whether the United states should intervene with Force in iraqis civil War. The champions of intervention want to vastly enlarge . War Aims. It is not enough for them to smash Iraq s military Power to threaten its neighbors and remove Saddam from Power. They now insist on destroy my Baghdad a capacity to control Iraq itself. One Day they recommend warning Baghdad against using chemical weapons. That a Fine. The next no Heli copters. Good also. The next no tanks. But even if the United states enforced All these prohibitions the fighting and killing would not Stop a the logic of intervention leads on inevitably to capturing Baghdad. Although iraqi troops failed to fight in Kuwait we cannot count on similar timidity in their Citadel. And who will fight by our Side no one. And what of civilian casualties Many More. And what do we do after we have occupied Baghdad and for How Long at what costs the goal of intervention presumably would be self determination. It is a worthy one most of the time. But just As it is beyond americans Power to stage manage iraqis internal future it is contrary do americans interests to sponsor iraqis  kurd deserve statehood As much As anyone. But a Good kurdish state in Northern Iraq cannot come to pass without a bad shiite state in Southern Iraq. Giving Iran and revolutionary fundamentalism this foothold would be a disaster for the United states considerable autonomy for kurd in Iraq is another question. Kurdish leaders say now that is All they really want. That is something Washington can help create by Tough bargaining with Baghdad. One thing Washington cannot do however is to bring democracy to Iraq a even if we occupied the place As we did with Germany and Japan it is simply very hard to imagine democracy taking Root in Arab is humic states at this time. The number of iraqi democrats would not raise a quorum at a Small gathering. The traditions and conditions to Foster democracy do not exist in Iraq. The country has no experience with free elections free press the Rule of Law or tolerance. We could make ourselves feel very self righteous by urging the few democrats on and deluding ourselves that would be dictators Are democrats but such Wishful thinking especially when coupled with a push for self determination runs extremely High risks. A a v f instability May be an abstract and meaningless concept to certain pundits and politicians. But to Many presidents and Peoples its meaning is Concrete and terrifying a religious and tribal bloodletting constant warring by outside Powers Over control and a permanent state of anarchy. Ask the lebanese about anarchy. How does one balance this risk against the daily reality of iraqi troops murdering kurd and shiites the anarchy democrats and interventionists think the Deci a Siori is easy just Start shooting Baghdad a forces again and sheer on All Baghdad a democratic and National opponents. To me it is a devils Choice a killing now killing later a that is Best resolved by Bush a continuing to warn All about the consequences of brutality but staying out and keeping others out. Our military intervention will not end the killing or bring democracy to Iraq. Only iraqis can arrange their own affairs make their own peace a and save themselves. A Cythe now York Timos. The opinions expressed in the columns and cartoons on this Page represent those of the authors and Are in no Way to be considered As representing the views of the stars and stripes or the United states government