European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - May 14, 1991, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Tuesday May 14, 1991 the stars and stripes a Page 13 commentary Arnold Sawislak Quayle probably still sate bet for 92 ticket from the moment he walked into. The Hospital president Bush a illness was almost sure to provoke serious and yes partisan discussion of vice president Dan Quayle a political future. Before the Bush episode of irregular heartbeat and fatigue Quayle a role was All but assured a he would be the vice presidential candidate again in 1992 Bush had nothing but Good things to say about the vice president accusing his critics of a piling on with unfair criticism. Also there was nothing circulating in the Washington whisper Mill to indicate Quayle was anything but aces with Bush there also was however no change in the Long term belief by Many people to the capital a some republicans As Well As nearly All democrats a that Quayle was simply unqualified to become president a May 5 Washington Post Abc poll showed 57 percent of the people surveyed did not think Quayle was qualified to be president. This goes Back to the huge Flap that ensued immediately after his election in 1988. Fairly or not Quayle was put Down As a somewhat dim Over privileged handsome Young Man who had a Lucky political career but had shown Little or no Talent for lawmaking governing or political leadership. The democrats spent a lot of Campaign time and Money ridiculing Quayle with no sign that it Hurt the Republican ticket and can be expected to pick up that theme again. What May be More interesting will be the Republican reaction. The gop political apparatus initially will rally around Quayle a following the presidents Lead a but All of Washington will be listening for indications that someone in the party is undercutting the vice president., who no Way of knowing yet but the Field of possibilities is Large. Start with the people who ran against Bush in the gop primaries. Any one of them could feel that Bush ought to pick a new running mate in 1992. Will it happen an attempt  h. Gelb Success probably not. In 1956, Eastern republicans tried to get president Eisenhower to dump Richard Nixon who got on the ticket four years earlier As part of a political Deal to deliver California convention delegates to Ike and because he was regarded As a Demon red Hunter. But even though he needed no help with delegates the country a taste for pursuing Domestic communists was abating and he did not like his vice president Ike retained Nixon for the second term. Presidents have dumped their vice presidents in the past. Franklin Roosevelt dropped both John Garner and Henry Wallace before choosing Harry Truman who was even less highly regarded than Quayle by Many in  a a a a a. A a  Garner a another veep who got the Job in Exchange for convention votes a was dumped in 1940 because he was opposing a lot of the new Deal and the third term for for. Like Quayle Wallace was ridiculed by the press and the opposition but More important he was regarded As politically unstable by the big City Bosses who controlled the democratic parly in 1944. Political party organizations Are Lar less important now than they were in the 1940s and 1950s, but they still arc needed to win nominations. Parties put a Premium on organizational loyalty and Quayle like Bush in the 1980s, has amply demonstrated that Quality. So absent a Gigantic mistake on his part Quayle probably still is a Safe bet for a 1992 ticket headed by George Bush. United press International. A new Cia chief must refocus resources talents the next director of Central intelligence will inherit various spying activities totalling $30 billion yearly and a Central intelligence Agency the jewel in his Crown on the verge of irrelevance. The successor will step into a universe of a dozen grossly overlapping agencies of cutthroat bureaucratic Competition of dizzying by potent and expensive equipment like a spy satellite costing $1.5 billion and of organizations clumsily trying to make the transition from the cold War to a bewilderingly diverse  unless president Bush selects a powerful and experienced new spy chief two things will surely occur the Cia already sleepy and isolated will Flat into bureaucratic outer space taking with it the talents of thousands of analysts and agents. And billions of dollars will be wasted in Washington inner space As rival agencies Triplicate tasks and scramble for influence with Little sense of Mission and excellence. A. A a a a the Story of disarray in the . Spy world follows a pattern now All too familiar. The Agency As it is known in Washington provided scant warning of iraqis attack on Kuwait and raised Lew alarms about the wars bloody aftermath. Once the fighting began the Pentagon easily shouldered the gentlemanly Cia aside and ran its own intelligence show. Throughout White House and state department officials condemned the Agency Tor mundane and watered Down analyses and predictions. No one wants to blame the outgoing spy chief. Judge William Webster for the mess. He did not come to the Job four years ago As an intelligence or National Security expert. His principal duty was to restore the Ciao a integrity after the Iran Contra affair and other illegal activities carried out by his predecessor William Casey. Webster rebuilt Trust brilliantly. It. But the judge had no stomach for bureaucratic infighting particularly with the Pentagon which controls most of his intelligence budget plus its own and not much feel for How to fit secret information into policy debates. A. Top secret Agency studies quickly became irrelevant to the policy makers. Senior officials became their own intelligence analysts a disposition Well ensconced before the War because of the Agency a lacklustre predictions about Eastern Europe and the soviet Union the Agency could not get its act together on the persian Gulf War. On july 20 and 25, a senior Cia analyst predicted that there a May be War but not that Iraq would try to conquer All of Kuwait. On the 25th, he was rebutted by the senior Agency analyst on the Middle East and the top Cia brass sided with the Middle East expert a until 24 hours be fore the attack. The Cia like the military badly overestimated the number of iraqi troops in Kuwait and their preparations to use chemical weapons. And compared with military estimates the Agency was Way off in estimating . Bomb damage. Commendably the Agency in october predicted widespread rebellions by kurd and shiites after the War. But inexplicably the top brass never pressed these views when Victory w As in sight. War predictions aside the main task of the intelligence Community now is to refocus resources and talents away from the soviet Union and on new threats from economic Competition terrorism drugs and the environment. The myriad agencies and departments involved in intelligence Are making that transition very slowly and in their usual fashion a by expensive Tri plication of Effort. Still More than half the $30 billion spending total goes to countering the badly weakened soviet War machine. What an incredible waste. Bush is seriously considering Only one candidate for the daunting task of bringing order and Quality to the intelligence bureaucracy. That a Robert Gates the presidents Deputy National Security adviser. He knows foreign policy is a Tough manager and wily bureaucrat and has been a career Cia professional. Gates is fully qualified except for a Black Cloud hovering Over his head. Suspicions remain in Congress that he knew More about the illegal Iran Contra caper than he acknowledged in sworn testimony. That Cloud has to be cleared away expeditiously before the directors Job is offered so that Gates can concentrate not on defending himself but on building a lean refocused first class intelligence operation. The new York times the opinions expressed in the columns and cartoons on this Page represent those of the authors and Are in no Way to be considered As representing the views of the stars and stripes or the United states government