European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - August 15, 1991, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Thursday August 15, 1991 the stars and stripes Page 13 commentary David Brode prospects in Senate in 1986, when the democrats regained a Senate majority and ended six years of Republican control they were the beneficiaries of nine Squeaker victories. In Alabama Colorado Georgia Louisiana Nevada North Carolina North Dakota South Dakota and Washington democratic challengers won with 53 percent of the votes or less. Six of the nine winners had 51 percent or less. Those senators face re election next year. Last week the Campaign finance figures for them came out a and they painted a Bleak picture for republicans. The senators a democrats Richard c. Shelby of Alabama Timothy e. Wirth of Colorado Wyche Fowler or. Of Georgia John b. Breaux of Louisiana Harry Reid of Nevada Terry Sanford of North Carolina Kent Conrad of North Dakota Thomas a. Daschle of South Dakota and Brock Adams of Washington a Are generally Well fixed for financing their campaigns. Four of them have More than a million Bucks in the Bank and several others Are not far behind. More significant is the absence of Well known opposition candidates with or without Cash. Except for Adams none has an opponent with More than $10,000 to spend. And except for Adams none has an opponent whose name is even vaguely familiar to most voters in his state. Republican recruitment for the 1992 Senate races so far has gone badly a very badly. A party that cannot recruit Able and politically durable Senate candidates in years when it has strength at the top of the ticket is never going to escape its minority status for Long. And the republicans have had a persistent problem in doing that. The same week that brought the Bleak news about the financial status of the 1992 gop candidates also saw sen. Steve Symms a Idaho announcing that he would leave the Senate next Vear at the age of 54. Weakened by Public reaction to his divorce and faced with a Tough democratic challenger in rep. Richard h. Stallings Symms decided that private life looked awfully attractive. Symms is a member of the famous Republican class of 1980, the senators swept in on the coattails of Ronald Reagan s first presidential Victory. Reagan has left Many powerful legacies of his presidency. But one of them is not that group of senators. There were 16 freshman republicans elected with him. Twelve of the 16 Defeated democratic incumbents. Their victories gave the Senate its first Republican Walter Putnam majority in a generation. Derided by some As a a Reagan a robots a they were the muscle if not the brains of his Early legislative successes. Symms is the first of the class to announce his retirement but the attrition rate has been exceptionally High for the Reagan senators. One a John East of North Carolina a died in office and his seat went to a Democrat. Six others were Defeated by democrats when they first faced re election in 1986. And at least three others Are on the Short list of democratic targets in 1992. It would not be surprising to see As few As six of the 167 republicans elected in 1980 still in the Senate after next year. By contrast the last class of democrats of such size a the liberals who were catapulted into the Senate in 1958 a had far More durability. Nine of the 13 were still around after their second re election campaigns in 1970. P kias Well As durability. Democratic freshmen of 1958 included Eugene Mccarthy of Minnesota a future candidate for the residential nomination Edmund mus in of Maine his party a vice presidential nominee and later Secretary of state Robert c. Byrd of West Virginia who became Senate majority Leader and Philip Hart of Michigan so esteemed by his colleagues that he is memorialized by having his name on the newest Senate office building. By contrast the republicans of 1980 included a lot of people who were plainly political accidents and who were sent to the showers by their Home state voters at the first Opportunity in 1986. After that 1986 wipe out republicans Alibie that the class of 1980 was exceptionally weak because when the recruiting had been done no one knew what a but that excuse rings hollow when you see what is happening again this year. All the polls show president Bush in very Good political shape Tor re election Ana yet the republicans again Are struggling to come up with credible candidates for Senate seats. Good year it would be for the Republican. Gop operative said at the time a we sure would ticket. A if we had known a one the difference is one of Quality have lined up better  North the Gress. The governor of South Carolina does no to want to turn Over his Job to the democratic lieutenant governor. The governor of South Dakota prefers Pierre to the Potomac. Having seen five of their House colleagues fail in Senate bids last year Republican members of Congress Are deciding to stay where they Are. The excuses vary but the answer is consistently a thanks but no  you a think they Dall forgotten what happened to one of the Surprise winners in the class of 1980. His name is Dan Quayle. C Tho Washington pos Saddam May be tightening grip on Oil City talks on kurdish autonomy have stalled four months after their Start amid suspicions that Saddam Hussein May be blocking Progress As he consolidates Power in his War torn country. Kurdish leaders Massoud Barzani and Jalal Talaban have Little option but to seek a Compromise with the iraqi president since they cannot be sure any future government would Grant the country a 3.5 million kurd autonomy. But the kurd also fear that Saddam might tear up any agreement As he has in the past if . Sanctions Are lifted and he cements his grip on Power once More. Saddam appears to be shoring up his Power base within his sunni Muslim sect. Some evidence of this is that he has begun recruiting sunnis rather than solely relying on shiites for military service. He also is making Progress in getting the United nations toward at least easing the year old sanctions strangling Iraq. Western troops have withdrawn from the kurdish protective zone established in Northwestern Iraq leaving the kurd to an Uncertain future. These developments have put pressure on the kurd As they try to break the impasse Over talks on gaining regional autonomy in the North. The talks began in april following an ill fated rebellion. Recently kurdish sources and travellers from the North have reported a major iraqi military buildup in Kirkuk a strategic Oil producing Center Long in dispute Between the Baghdad government and the kurd. If sanctions Are eased to allow Iraq to Export Oil Worth $1.6 billion to buy urgently needed food and Medicine Kirkuk would be vital for the government. The sources say up to five Republican guard divisions a possibly 100,000 soldiers a have been deployed in the Region. If True the reports demonstrate that Saddam is determined not to relinquish Kirkuk or allow the kurd to take control As they Aid last month in the other Northern cities of Erbil and As Sulayman Yah. Kurdish guerrillas moved in after july riots Over High food prices triggered fighting with the army that killed or injured hundreds of people. The use of the Republican guard Saddam a toughest and most Loyal troops could Only be considered As insurance against a new outbreak of violence. Travellers say 6,000 guerrillas also have moved toward Kirkuk in recent Days. Kurdish leaders have said Saddam can control Oil revenues As Long As they Are distributed fairly among a a population including the kurd and i Saddam a sunni minority. The whole the kurd and not just the kurd want Kirkuk in their autonomous Region because it is part of their historic Homeland. But the Baghdad regime cannot afford to relinquish Kirkuk the Only Oil Center currently capable of pumping Oil for Export. C the associated press the opinions expressed in the columns and cartoons on this Page represent those of the authors and Are in no Way to be considered As representing the views of the stars and stripes or the United states government