European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - October 23, 1991, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Wednesday october 23, 1991 the stars and stripes a Page 13 William Safire Coy Cuomo still commentary playing his waiting game when 1 was in Tokyo last month they asked me what the possibility was that i would run for president. I told them that question was too easy. If they had asked me a do you think there is a possibility that while the governor of new York is in Japan there will be an earthquake and a typhoon in two Days a i would have said a not  but of course a there was an earthquake and a typhoon in those two Days. So the unlikely sometimes happens. But i can to get away with this cuteness routine forever. In be been saying i have no plans to run and no plans to make plans but now its a year to election Day and its time to Stop playing Hamlet and Start playing for keeps. Of course in a running and not just for the exercise this thing gets More winnable every Day. The Media Are so naive. They phrase their questions in convoluted ways to be first to drag an announcement out of me and they miss the opening of the Campaign that a been going on for months in California. That a where the nomination and the election will be won. Its the biggest state plenty of ethnics and minorities where i can win big. I want the California primary to be moved up Early in the Spring so i can put the nomination on ice quickly and focus on Bush. Of course the president knows that and wants me to lose a few Southern primaries which is Why his California republicans Are trying to keep their primary in june. That a the first skirmish of the Campaign of �?T92, and the pundits typically Are waiting around for a press release. I like the democrats now in the Field running to be my running mate. Rockefeller or Gore might have been trouble but these new Guys Are perfect for Clearing out the political underbrush. Sen. Tom Harkin of Iowa the old line Liberal does no to have a Chance but he has the Best one liner so far. A George Bush was born on third base and thinks he hit a  great line not Only about Bush a Rich childhood out about taking credit for seven presidents Battle against communism. Ill give Harkin full credit but in a the one who played semipro baseball and that gag belongs in my stump speech. Arkansas gov. Bill Clinton is the Best organized and he has his centrist message together. Him i like and i need a Southern Wasp but he a another governor and the Damn gossip mongers will be All Over him. Be a Good Campaign chairman Nice contrast to John Sununu or Robert Mosbacher. My Man is sen. Bob Kerrey of Nebraska. Lost part of his leg winning the medal of Honor a untouchable. Can you just see my Kerrey up against Bush a Dan Quayle let Bush try to wrap himself in the Flag again a my running mate senator Kerrey who does no to have to re mind you that he won the medal of Honor in Vietnam 99 now about strategy. Well Jujitsu Bush on his claim to foreign policy experience America does no to need a president of the world we need a president of the United states. And his foreign policy has been overrated he totally misread the breakup of the soviet Union and after All the fuss about defeating Saddam Hussein the dictator is getting More dangerous because George Bush choked up at the end. Ill hit him with the a dirty  Bush a veto of the unemployment insurance Bill was one his veto of the bipartisan civil rights Bill will be two. The democratic leadership should pass 10 More Bills the people need and want a health housing education a let the no Man in the White House do his a dirty dozen  ill pledge to sign those 12 Bills on inaugural afternoon a and ill keep my Promise unlike that phony no tax Promise that he won on then broke. Let him try his Michael Dukakis stuff with me sailing around new York Harbor and whatnot a hell never know what hit him. George Bush stole $6 billion from the states this year on top of being the slowest growth president since Hoover. Are you better off than you were four years ago with a emr veto in the White House paralysed in the face of recession you think i d sit tight like those bozos when Bush s Hatchet men smeared Anita Hill not a Chance. Americans like a scrapper an underdog in the polls who will stand up against the smug no men and just watch those polls turn around when i make my prime time speech at the convention in new York and when i get to him in those televised debates. I can hardly wait. Then what am i waiting Lor c now York times Anthony Lewis Bush seizes Opportunity for Mideast peace no one who knows the Middle East will celebrate yet. The substance of a successful negotiation the give and take needed to make it work is still hard to envisage. But there Are going to be negotiations starting next week in Madrid Spain and that is remarkable enough. For the first time in its 43 years As a state Israel will meet face to face with each of its Arab neighbors a and with palestinian representatives. All the issues Between them will be on the table peace Security land people. It is going to happen now because of president Bush and Secretary of state James a. Baker Iii. Baker spent much of the last five months wheedling and pushing the intractable parties. But his Success was possible Only because the president had the vision and the courage to commit himself to this conference. Bush seized the moment after the persian Gulf War for a new Effort at Arab israeli peace. He understood that some fundamental Power relationships had changed. Those changes still going on offer Hope for an Onset of reason in the Middle East. The end of the cold War has had an immediate Impact on the Region. Soviet military support for Syria has ebbed making president Hafez Assad look to improved relations with the United states. Israeli and american fear of communist influence has abated making possible a joint soviet american invitation to Madrid that in the past would have caused alarm. The decline in soviet Power is also having a profound Impact on  relations. It has weakened or removed one basis for the close ties of recent decades and for massive . Aid the idea that Israel was a strategic asset for America in a vital part of the world. The Gulf War showed that . Armed forces could act in the Middle East without Israel. In that War indeed Israel was a complication rather than an asset in . Military calculations. Americans Are still committed to help Israel for reasons of history and conscience. But it is Clear that a More detached relationship is developing one in which America will More freely weigh its own values and interests. The economist wrote last month a americans still express their moral commitment to israelis survival but israelis moral Case grows steadily weaker As it refuses to extend to the palestinians the right of self determination that has become a Cornerstone of the emerging world order. A a peace which left Israel ruling Over millions oing world order. A a peace which left Israel ruling Over millions of vote less palestinians has become  israelis Are increasingly aware that they cannot expect unconditional support from the United states a that they can maintain the vital american connection Only by paying attention to american interests. Bush made that bluntly Clear when he postponed consideration of loan guarantees too bluntly most israelis thought but they understood the larger Point. In this new relationship the territories occupied by Israel since 1967 Are the crunch. Us. Policy is to end israeli control of the West Bank and Gaza strip and their More than 1.500,000 palestinian inhabitants. Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Shamir and much of his government Are committed to creeping annexation of the occupied territories. A new political Choice is therefore shaping up for Israel keep the occupied territories or keep american support. Economic realities Are also pushing Israel to make a Choice about the territories. The reasons Are explored in depth by Bernard Avishai in the forthcoming november december Issue of the Harvard business review. The $10 billion sought from the United states in loan guarantees is to build housing for soviet immigrants to Israel. But if those immigrants Are to have jobs Avishai said Israel will need two or three times that much in investment capital from the world. And Israel will have to change its protective economic policies and become part of the global Market using its special scientific and intellectual talents. But there will be no Large scale foreign investment Avishai writes and no Lon term contracts with israeli firms while the world sees insecurity Over the Issue of the occupied territories. A Israel can base the whole land of Israel or it can have a piece of the global  c Tho now York tiros