European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - December 3, 1991, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Tuesday december 3,1991 the stars and stripes b Page 17money matters big retailers report ringing in consumer Confidence nose dived in november for the second consecutive month the conference Board reported in what could indicate a bad Christmas season for merchants. The non profit business research groups consumer Confidence Index fell More than nine Points in november to 50.6 a More than three Points below its lowest level during the recession of 1982. The Index had tumbled nearly 13 Points in october. The monthlong period Between thanksgiving Ana Christmas is the most important sales time of the year. But the latest figures Are a sign that retailers will probably not have a Strong Christmas Selling season said Fabian Linden executive director of the conference boards consumer research Center. He said merchants a Are probably not going to have very Good balance sheets Over the next two to three  a Consumers Are very worried about their jobs a and a worried consumer is a hesitant customer a Linden  rates London up mondays rates for the . Dollar to other currencies. Figures Are expressed in dollars to the British Pound other local currencies in dollars Gold was quoted at s368.25 an ounce Silver at $4.10. Nov. 29 dec. 2 British pound.1.7647 1.7770 German mark.1.6270 1.6075 French franc.5.5770 5.4965 dutch gumar.1.8343 1.8140 belgian franc.33.57 33.11 Kalian lira.1.228.50 1,213.75 Swiss franc.1.4355 1.4220 greek drachma.185.72 183.32 turkish lira.5,060.10 5,033.60 saudi Arabia rfyal.3.7495 3.7490 Spanish peseta.103.92 102.45 portuguese escudo.144.57 143.29 canaaancmar.1.1351 1.1324 austrian schiking.11.49 11.3125 norwegian krone.6.4220 6.3290 danish krona.6.3450 6.2490 these Are commercial rates and can be related Only to the use of foreign currency by . Forces for official business. The Only official rate concerns the Sale of German Marks to . Personnel for personal use and this will be 1.57 through tuesday based on mondays noontime  fight ends As bid goes Flat Milan Italy a Pirelli spa the world s fifth largest tire maker has abandoned its takeover bid for a German competitor ending one of the Nastiest european corporate takeover Battles in recent history. Pirelli said sunday that its failed attempt to take Over the Continental a the worlds fourth largest tire maker Cost it $290 million. Pirelli hit hard by the recession and intense Competition had been counting on the merger to ease its Quot financial problems. The company expects to Post a consolidated loss equal to $550 million for 1991, compared with a profit of $128 million last year. Pirelli said it will charge $85 million against this years earnings to pay for a restructuring planned for next year. Hoho hum Christmas sales by Joyce m. Rosenberg a business writer Paramus . A several of the nations big retailers said the first weekend of the Christmas shopping season was a Success with special Holiday sales and discounts drawing bargain hungry Consumers into the stores. But while some retailers exceeded their expectations for the beginning of the season sales were still weak when compared with the results of More robust economic times. Americans worrying about the weak Economy were shopping conservatively and were generally looking for lower priced gifts. . Penney co. Inc. Said sales were stronger than anticipated while Sears Roebuck and co. Said business was As expected. Dayton Hudson corp. Reported mixed results. Home furnishings retailer pier 1 in f Orts inc. And toy retailer child world no. Said they were pleased with their sales. A business was Good All Over a said Duncan Muir a Penney a spokesman. A Friday was really much better than  sales at Sears a met our expectations a said Matt Howard Sears senior vice president for marketing. A on balance we re quite pleased with the entire  at Dayton Hudson sales were better than expected at the company a department stores and its Mervyn s clothing stores spokeswoman Ann Barkelew said. Business was slower at the target discount store division Friday and then picked up saturday she said. Retailers had to work hard to get customers to buy last weekend. The store owners generally got their sales with promotions the retail Industry a term for advertised specials and Price markdowns. A Sterns department store in Par Amus part of a shopping Mecca outside new York City had Sale or a was Adver a Fairlane town Center store in Dearborn mich., tries to lure shoppers with discounts. Tired a signs in almost every department. The retailer part of Allied stores corp., also offered coupons for 10 percent discounts on merchandise purchased Friday and saturday. At Dayton Hudson a people Are buying what we re promoting a Barkelew said. Howard said Sears shoppers responded Well to merchandise advertised in commercials run during the motion picture e.t., broadcast by lbs on thanksgiving night and the Tel Emundo network Friday. Sega and Nintendo video game systems and wide screen televisions which were among the advertised items sold Well this weekend he said. For the most part Consumers looked for practical and lower priced gifts. Shoppers interviewed around the country Friday said they were looking for bargains and had Cut their gift giving plans because of the Economy and concerns about Job Security. At stems the longest lines at Cash registers were in clothing departments where sweaters shirts and ties were big Sellers. Muir said the most popular items at Penney stores included women a Cotton turtlenecks sweaters in the $18-$30 Range and menus flannel Boxer shorts. At Sears a in general the focus was on Radical gifts versus luxury items a said Loward noting that towels were big movers. Nation s economic troubles started Iona before president took office by John Cunniff the associated press new York a the economic debate has become red hot emotionally highly politicized and deeply confusing a Ana with an election year coming up it is Likely to intensify on All these fronts. In such a situation the incumbent president a like George Bush a becomes the lightning Rod for emotions and whatever financial and economic problems exist Are Likely to be attributed to him As if they suddenly developed on his four year watch. Lost in debate is the dimension of time. Problems that took years to develop such As budget deficits wage stagnation and Low savings Are expected to be resolved quickly even in one tenth the time of their gestation. The growth rate of americans Gross National product or total production of goods and services has slipped decade by decade since the 1940s, when the real annual growth rate was 4.5 percent based on average compound annual rates. A a real is a term used to make time comparisons valid by eliminating the effect of inflation. It is generally done by measuring different periods with the same or constant dollars rather than a a current or changing dollars. Using the 1982 Dollar that 4.5 percent annual rate of Gnu gain in the 1941-1950 period was followed by 3.3 percent in the 1951-1960 decade Ana 2.8 percent from 1971 to 1980. From 1981 to 1990, the gain was Only 2.7 percent. In Short while there have been some very Good times As Well As poor times Over the past half Century some economists May argue that there has been analysis slow deterioration in the Economy a ability to sustain growth. You will find Many explanations. Many analyses concentrate on inflation deficits interest rates Competition poor management poor education misuse of capital a All of which contribute to lowered productivity gains. Whatever the reasons or combination of reasons similar trends Are apparent in various areas of the Economy As revealed by the data base of Wright investors service an economic research and portfolio management firm. Industrial production gains for exam be soared in the 1940s because of world a ii settled Back sharply in the 1950s, Rose again in the 1960s, but then plunged in the 1970s and 1980s. The rate at which the Economy used manufacturing capacity fell to 79.7 percent in the 1980s, the lowest since world War ii. The 7.1 percent average level of unemployment in the 1980s was the worst since the 1930s. As most people suspect budget deficits grew As world War ii ended. As a percentage of the Gnu the average annual deficit in the 1950s was 0.3 percent followed by 0.8 percent in the 1960s. The 1970s�?T average was 2.3 percent the 1980s�?T level 4.2 percent. Interest rates Rose during the period sometimes slowly but often explosively especially in the 1970s and 1980s. Many people Are astonished to find the Erime lending rate said to be the lowest Ank rate to top corporate customers was a Mere 2 percent in 1949. Now after five cuts in a year it is 7.5 percent less than half the 1981 annual average of 18.8 percent but Between three and four times the level of 1949. Budget deficits nothing new. We Haven to had a surplus since 1969. Matters worsened drastically in 1983, when the deficit reached 6.1 percent of the Gnu. It Iii proved to just 2.9 percent in 1989, but now it is soaring again