European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - January 7, 1992, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Tuesday january 7, 1992 the stars and stripes a Page 13 commentary Mike Feinsilber even Buchanan s Peers Are sceptical of his bid if the election were held Only among his fellow conservative newspaper columnists Patrick Buchanan might not be a sure Winner. Ever since columnist and television commentator Buchanan gave up punditry to run against president Bush his conservative Brethren on the editorial pages of America have been considering his candidacy. But a Cross Section of syndicated conservative columnists shows they have been shy about endorsing their fellow commentator. Some like the messenger but find flaws in the message. Buchanan so America first isolationism Trade protectionism and advocacy of curbs on immigration go Down especially hard. Still a number of his fellow columnists Are pleased to see him in the race applying pressure on Bush from the right. One Joseph Sobran welcomes Buchanan As a Chance to punish Bush for his a a betrayals of conservatives on taxes and civil rights. Another Jeffrey Hart foresees the possibility that other conservatives will Rise to Challenge Bush for renomination if Buchanan draws blood in new Hampshire. William Safire who used to work beside Buchanan when they wrote speeches in the Nixon White House thinks Buchanan a vote in new Hampshire might exceed the 42 percent won by Eugene Mccarthy against Lyndon Johnson in the 1968 democratic primary. Safire thinks Buchanan Send purpose is a a takeover of the party in 1996�?� and if that fails the creation of a third party. Rowland Evans and Robert Novak after observing Buchanan campaigning cite polls that give him the potential of exceeding a 40 percent vote against Bush. Because of his familiarity they say Buchanan found a wide and surprisingly Friendly recognition in new Hampshire not the a stares of incomprehension common to presidential Campaign  on the other hand William rusher writes that it is virtually certain that Bush will beat Back the Buchanan Challenge. He envisions Buchanan endorsing Bush at the Republican convention and conservatives closing ranks behind the president. Rusher finds fault with Buchanan a platform saying people who Are every bit As conservative As Buchanan disagree with his ideas on protectionism immigration and isolationism. Cal Thomas finds a Good news for the Republican party and for the country in Buchanan a candidacy. Distributed try King features Syndicate a Buchanan baksar1an. He says Bush will be forced to either respond to Buchanan a ideas a for begin to convincingly state his  George will says Buchanan serves the function that insurgent candidates always have raising issues conventional politicians would rather avoid. But says will Buchanan expounds a wrong sometimes mean and occasionally Crackpot ideas regarding Israel the holocaust and the politics of american  along the same lines r. Emmett Tyrrell or. Expresses concern that a my Friend Pat Buchanan will use provocative language in his Campaign that liberals can hurl Back to the injury of the conservative cause. These concerns reflect the Contention by the Dean of conservatives William Buckley in a 38,000-word article in National review that Buchanan has made anti semitic statements. Buchanan a candidacy fills James j. Kilpatrick with melancholy. He is outright against it. He thinks that an old Friend a suddenly has gone  Buchanan has no More likelihood of unseating Bush than pigs of flying Kilpatrick writes. A the is a writer for Peters Sake he is a columnist a to personality a pugnacious fellow who can lick any Man in the  a a nah me a writes Kilpatrick seeing no Good in the exercise. A vanity of vanities Saith the preacher All is  c tie associated press George will sometimes statistics can do a number on us to the untrained Eye it was just another of the numbing numbers by which journalism Calls attention to this or that crisis a every year the world health organization estimates 220,000 people die from pesticide  to the trained Eye of Richard Mcguire new Yorkus commissioner of agriculture and markets that assertion in an upstate new York newspapers editorial looked implausible. It was. Follow Mcguire As he trails the slithering number to a lesson about the strange life led by some statistics and the terrible data on which government often makes decisions. A Call from Mcguire a office to the upstate editor revealed that he had received the editorial from a California Syndicate. A Call there revealed that the 220,000 number was from information supporting Vermont democratic sen. Patrick Leahy a Bill to prohibit . Companies from exporting pesticides whose use is banned in America. Leahy was concerned about America importing foods containing residues of chemicals banned Here. Leahy a office directed Mcguire to the who which directed him to a who report. Mcguire wrote to the author in Switzerland who wrote Back to say the figure of 220,000 deaths came from another who publication. The author had warned readers that a reliable data on pesticide poisonings Are not available and the figures Given Are derived from various  unfortunately he said quoted figures often acquire misplaced momentum because they Are shorn of their tentative Ness. Here is what the who publication the author relied on actually said a of the More than 220,000 intentional or unintentional deaths from acute pesticide poisoning suicides account for approximately 91 percent occupational exposure for 6 percent and other causes including food contamination for 3  of the 3 percent itself a guess we Are left to guess what portion involved food contamination. Who a Basic message was that there were actually 20,000 deaths from unintentional pesticide poisoning in a world population of 5 billion. The numbers floated downstream from the who to the senators office to the editorial writers office where this was written a every year the world health organization estimates 220,000 people die from pesticide poisoning 25 million fall victim to injury or illness. There Are no reliable numbers on How Many of these casualties result from exposure to unlicensed chemicals imported from this country. But there is no question that the american manufacturers who continue to traffic in these poisons Are a significant part of the  that is american traffickers in poisons Are unquestionably a significant part of the problem if there is a significant problem. . Food and drug administration tests on imported foods reveal no significant problem with chemical residues on food imports the use of nutty numbers to Advance political agendas May result from cynicism or from confusions born of carelessness. The result can be foolish Public policies feeding on and fed by the journalism of apocalypse. Twenty years ago the Public interest published the vitality of mythical numbers by Max Singer then president of the Hudson Institute. He dissected a then commonly cited number that new York City a �?o100,000-plus�?� heroin addicts were stealing upward of $5 billion Worth of property a year. The assumptions behind the numbers were 100,000 addicts were each spending an average of $30 a Day on their habits or $1.1 billion a year 100,000 x 365 x $30. Stolen property is fenced for about one Quarter of its value so addicts must steal upward of $5 billion Worth. Singer was sceptical. Most stealing by addicts then was by shoplifting and burglary. All retail sales in the City then totalled $15 billion Fin eluding cars carpets diamonds and other goods not susceptible to shoplifting. All losses from All forms of theft and embezzlement were about 2 percent. Even if shoplifters accounted for half of that they done to employees steal much More and if All shoplifters were addicts they Arent the addicts shoplifting total would be $150 million. Burglary even if one fifth of the City a 2.5 million households had been burglarized each year they weren to and accepting the police estimate that the average loss from a burglary was property Worth $200, the burglary total $200 x 500,000 was $100 million. So even with inflating assumptions the burglary and shoplifting sum was a Quarter of a billion dollars Worth of property. That is not chopped liver but it is one twentieth of $5 billion. Probably the �?o100,000-pius�?� number of addicts was inflated. A pertinent question about such numbers is whose interests Are served by a numerical exaggeration the answer often is the people whose funding or political importance varies directly with the perceived severity of a particular problem. Here then is a helpful number two. When an advocacy group cites hair raising numbers about the problem for which they Are advocating solutions or a bureaucracy cites such numbers about the problem its programs address homelessness drug abuse teen age prostitution whatever Divide the numbers by two. Similarly when the office of management and budget issues deficit projections multiply by three. C to it to Baltimore Sun