European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - January 22, 1992, Darmstadt, Hesse                                New Hampshire is just the beginning by Ronald Brownstein los Angeles times a after months on the warm up track the five contenders for the democratic presidential nomination now face a sprint to decision. In just four weeks the candidates Square off in the feb. 18 new Hampshire primary that almost certainly will establish the race s front runners and possibly eliminate As much As half the Field from serious Contention. In the frenetic four weeks that follow new Hampshire the democrats must run a Gauntlet of 29 primaries and caucuses that will select almost half of the delegates to the party a National convention. The results of these far Flung Early contests a which Range from a six pack of primarily Western and midwestern states March 3, to the Southern showdown on super tuesday a week later a will determine whether the race reaches the Quick conclusion Many party leaders seek or evolves into a debilitating Marathon. With Money and time tight the campaigns face difficult decisions on where to invest their resources All Are focusing intensely on new Hampshire which has gained even More prominence than usual this year because the first contest a Iowa a feb. 10 caucuses a has been virtually ceded to Home state sen. Tom Harkin. But none of the candidates has accepted the historic front runner s Burden of competing virtually everywhere. Instead most Are constructing regional redoubts Harkin the five democratic candidates at a recent televised debate. A and Nebraska sen. Bob Kerrey in the Midwest and Bill Clinton of Arkansas in the South As in previous years events Are Likely to overrun Many of these plans. Most importantly the Winner in new Hampshire May find it impossible to write off almost any of the contests that follow without sacrificing the momentum he earns from the first primary. Most analysts believe that dynamic could most powerfully affect Clinton the candidate the press has tagged As the front runner Clinton s Campaign has planned to downplay most of the states in the two weeks after new Hampshire. Instead he Hopes to build momentum in the South for super tuesday by winning South Carolina s March 7 primary and Georgia a if it moves up its primary to March 3 from its current Date on super tuesday. But if Clinton cements his press appointed front runner status with a Strong new Hampshire showing that plan becomes Quot a very risky strategy a a says democratic consultant Joe Trippi who is advising Wilder. The Road to nomination t by Ronald Brownstein los Angeles times he presidential Odyssey where when and emerging strategies for the Early stages of the Campaign for the democratic nomination Iowa democrats in Iowa feel As lonely As a truck Stop operator bypassed by a new interstate with Iowa sen Tom Harkin expected to win handily and sen. Bob Kerrey of neighbouring Nebraska expected to finish second none of the other candidates has launched Quot any perceptible on the ground activity Quot says Tim Raftis harking a Campaign manager the candidates Are so uninterested in Iowa that the Des Moines Register was forced to cancel a debate the Only contender aggressively campaigning in Iowa is former California gov Edmund g "jerry1 Brownjr new Hampshire the candidates schedules eloquently underscore new Hampshire a Pivotal role this month former Massachusetts sen Paul e Tsongas is scheduled to spend 12 Days in the state Arkansas gov Bill Clinton 13 Days Harkin 11 to 15 Days and Kerrey. 20 that is on top of a time commitment in 1991 that ranged from 41 Days for Tsongas to Over two dozen for Kerrey. 16 Foi Harkin and 13 for Clinton More than they have devoted to any other state for Tsongas a poor Dimsh Here perhaps anything less than Victor a could effectively end his Campaign. The others May have More leeway but not much because those trailing Heie will Likely find it difficult to raise Money the a lesser Antilles democratic operatives tagged the states hoi Ween new Hampshire and super tuesday with this Label to symbolize their minor significance in 1988 but they will speak More loudly this time four years ago the so called lesser Antilles comprised live states with Only 143 delegates. This year clustered into that 20-Day crunch Are 15 contests largely m the Western half of the country electing 480 delegates More than Illinois Michigan and Ohio combined. The first Stop comes just five Days after new Hampshire in Maine whose caucuses have typically seconded the decision of the Granite state. Both Harkin and Kerrey have focused attention on the midwestern Stales that follow setting up potential showdowns in the South Dakota primary feb. 25 which has also attracted interest from Clinton and the Minnesota caucus on March 3, where Harkin has spent More time than anyone else and grabbed the organizational Lead Kerrey is also hoping for a boost from seven Western states that will vote before super tuesday a including Nevada on March 8 and Colorado on March 3, where he has recruited Many of Gary Hart s former supporters both Clinton and Tsongas could choose Colorado As a test of their National viability after a Good showing in new Hampshire Clinton has devoted More attention though to South Carolina and Georgia whose legislature will vote this month on whether to move up its primary Tsongas and Harkin Are Laiveling Maryland on Maich 3 Brown won the state in his 1976 presidential bid. But has t yet focused on it this Lime super tuesday it s not quite As super As Toui years ago but it still looms As the single most demanding Day on the Calendar four years ago 20 states selecting 1.307 delegates voted on then it s up to Clinton to go out West and continue proving he s a National candidate Quot says Trippi in comments echoed by the other campaigns. Quot by allowing Kerrey and Harkin to fight it out in the Western states after new Hampshire he could allow either to emerge As an  on the other hand whoever wins new Hampshire will receive such a boost in publicity momentum and Money that he will become instantly competitive in states where he now has Little presence. Quot new Hampshire is the tidal wave and the rest of the country is the Beach Quot says democratic strategist Brian Lunde who directed Illinois sen. Paul Simon a 1988 presidential Campaign. Adding to the pressure to perform Well Early is the fact that Over 760 Quot super delegates Quot to the convention including democratic National committee members governors and members of Congress a will begin to slate their preferences in March. These party leaders represent More than one third of the 2,144 delegates needed Lor the nomination. Super tuesday this year 12 states seven of them in the South will elect 859 delegates March 10. That total could drop further if schedule changes Are approved in Georgia and Texas which May have to move Back its primary to april because of a redistricting dispute. Most analysts expect Clinton to run Well in states such As Oklahoma Louisiana and Mississippi. The key for Clinton May be whether he can take the Day s twin towers Florida and Texas if it does t move Back in 1988, Massachusetts gov. Michael s. Dukakis blunted the South s Impact by out spending Tennessee sen. Albert Gore or to snatch both of those states in 1992, no one is Likely to have the funds to duplicate that strategy but Kerrey Harkin and Tsongas Hope that momentum from new Hampshire might allow them to share the headlines and delegates by winning non Southern Stales such As Massachusetts and Rhode Island As Well As Florida which has swung to the new Hampshire Winner in each race since 1976 Illinois and Michigan in three of the past four elections Illinois has played a critical role in settling the outcome voting this year with Michigan on March 17, it could again Clinton has targeted Illinois As the place where you stake out you Are not just a Southern candidate Quot says his Media adviser Frank Green through december Clinton spent More time in Illinois  in Texas or Florida after March 17, the race slows and turns to Industrial states such As new York Pennsylvania and Ohio that april and Early May Many democrats a eager for a pm Resolution that will allow the party to focus its tire on president Bush a Hope the nomination will be Long in a a by then be in the men who would be president by Jill Lawrence associated press the to commercials will last 30 seconds the Coffee shop encounters with voters a bit longer. But there a More to the five democratic presidential candidates than meeting greeting and ads. The candidates Are asking the Power to revive the nation s Economy and its can do spirit Reform an unwieldy and sometimes uncaring health system and ease pressure on the financially squeezed Middle class. Just How they would do that the substance of the issues has been less a part of America s elections Over the last 20 years than the character and style of the candidates but the vision of change offered by the contenders remains a powerful part of the Campaign americans Are just getting to know the current democratic Field each of whose members is striving to stand out from the rest. Nebraska sen. Bob Kerrey stresses a formative War experience while former Massachusetts sen Paul Tsongas prescribes get Tough economic Medicine. Iowa sen. Tom Harkin presents himself As a fiery populist. Former California gov. Jerry Brown condemns a Money driven political system and a Kansas gov Bill Clinton louts the Broad Appeal he says can win the White House rhetoric is Otten thicker than details but for is sue minded voters the candidates have been busily Gene Ting position papers position speeches and even position booklets All say tie country needs no More b-2 Dombois they Aie unanimous in support of a ban on semiautomatic weapons As Well As a waiting period Tor handgun purchases and most would reduce the detente budget More than the Bush administration plan to Cut it 21 percent by 1995 Heie Aie the democrats views on some a or voter concerns Clinton taxes Economy Public jobs abortion death penalty health care defense budget supports a capital gains tax Cut for Lon term Job creating investments and a Middle class tax Cut funded by a modest tax increase Tor people with incomes above $200,000 Kerrey Tsongas Brown favors permanent tax break for research and development higher ceiling on Farmers Home administration mortgage guarantees and expansion of the earned income tax credit. Would front Load Money in the new six year transportation Bill and create a voluntary National service program tied to College Aid. Favors Legal abortion and parental notification requirements has opposed Public funding of poor women s abortions in the past but would not veto such a Bill As president. Supports favors Universal Access improved preventive care and controlling costs through insurance Reform. Promises to present a specific plan within a year of taking office would Cut it at least 25 percent by 1995, More than a third by 1997 favors a Middle class tax Cut paid for by higher taxes on top 1 percent of population. Would consider narrowly targeted capital gains tax Cut. Supports research and development tax Breaks new Federal Agency to coordinate and fund research into key civilian technologies and an education capital Lund to improve schools. Favors targeted capital gains tax Cut for Lon term investments and those m new enterprises. No proposal supports abortion rights supports under limited circumstances proposes Universal coverage paid by the government taxes on employers and workers would increase to finance the plan but premiums would be eliminated patients would contine to choose among private doctors hospitals and health plans would Cut 30 percent to 40 percent in next 10 years would offer tax credits Tor investments and research and development ease anti Trust Laws to allow Point business ventures and create savings incentives Tor individuals would front Load spending under the new six year transportation Bill. Supports abortion rights favors for crimes against society primarily drug Tratt King has proposed a Universal coverage system requiring most employers to Otter insurance. Would Cap employer deductions and impose a now payroll tax extra Money would be Given to states to cover entrepreneurs the unemployed and Small businesses would Cut it at least 25 percent by 1995, More than third by 1997 favors cutback in social Security tax combining it with the income tax and bringing Down Rater Tor americans other than the wealthy Harkin urges Enterprise zones and a tax amnesty designed to bring $60 billion to $100 billion into government Cotters would Speed up construction of Public works and transportation projects and create a conservation corps for troubled youth supports abortion rights oppose support centralized National plan modelled on Canada s with emphasis on prevention and wellness government would Purchase All coverage would reduce military Aid to Germany and convert  spending to space Ai d a to Rospape technology no specific targets urges targeted a vestment tax credit Lor manufacturers who buy new machinery manufactured in the United states proposer Long term strategy of inverting in America would make Largo investment in rebuilding roads Bridges mass transit and Energy systems. Supports abortion rights and parental notification  Lor minors opposer i.,alls Loi Reform plan keyed to Universal coverage Cost control inventive cure and medical n Quot catch no specifics but promises to have reforms in place by tall 1999 it flecked would Cut 50 percent in next 10 years Page 16 b the stars and stripes wednesday january 22, 1992 the stars and stripes Page 17